Market evolution: Cordless telephones (CN 851711) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of EU cordless telephone sets (customs code 851711) over the period 2015–2025. The overview data reveals a market that has undergone a profound structural contraction. EU imports fell from €225.9 million in 2015 to €104.2 million in 2025 (–53.8%), while exports declined from €95.0 million to €47.7 million (–49.8%). Trade volumes contracted even more sharply — by over 70% in both directions. At the same time, unit prices rose substantially, EU domestic production collapsed, and the bloc's dependence on external suppliers intensified. Against the backdrop of the smartphone revolution, Voice-over-IP adoption, and evolving global supply chains, these figures paint a picture of a niche product segment in sustained structural decline — but one whose remaining trade is undergoing meaningful reconfiguration in terms of geography, concentration, and price dynamics.
1. A market in structural contraction: collapsing volumes and domestic production
1.1 Trade volumes have fallen by over 70% in both directions
Between 2015 and 2025, the trade overview shows a dramatic collapse in trade volumes. EU imports of cordless telephones fell from 13.2 million units to 4.0 million units (–69.6% by supplementary quantity, –73.3% by mass), while exports dropped from 2.4 million units to 676 thousand units (–71.6%). The trade deficit narrowed from €130.9 million to €56.5 million, but this reflected the general shrinking of the market rather than any improvement in EU competitiveness.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports — value (€M) | 225.9 | 104.2 | –53.8% |
| Imports — volume (t) | 6,997 | 1,870 | –73.3% |
| Imports — units (p/st) | 13,232,256 | 4,022,901 | –69.6% |
| Exports — value (€M) | 95.0 | 47.7 | –49.8% |
| Exports — volume (t) | 1,180 | 335 | –71.6% |
| Exports — units (p/st) | 2,382,003 | 675,514 | –71.6% |
| Trade balance (€M) | –130.9 | –56.5 | +56.8% |
Sources: Overview
1.2 EU domestic production has all but disappeared
The most striking structural finding concerns EU production volumes. Output fell from 17.3 million units (2015) to just 1.8 million units (2025), a decline of 89.6%. The production value collapsed from €533.2 million to €40.0 million (–92.5%). This near-total retreat of EU manufacturing is consistent with the broader offshoring of consumer electronics assembly to Asia and the declining relevance of cordless handsets in an era dominated by mobile phones and softphone applications.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production — units (p/st) | 17,281,634 | 1,800,000 | –89.6% |
| Production — value (€M) | 533.2 | 40.0 | –92.5% |
Sources: Production volumes
1.3 The decline reflects a secular technology shift
The trajectory is consistent with the well-documented substitution of fixed-line telephony by mobile and internet-based communication. Cordless handsets, once a ubiquitous household product, have seen consumer demand erode steadily. The EU's production collapse likely accelerated after 2020, as pandemic-era demand for home-office equipment temporarily boosted adjacent categories (headsets, webcams) but did not reverse the long-term decline in traditional cordless telephony.
2. Rising unit prices amid declining volumes: a premiumisation and inflation story
2.1 Unit prices have increased by 50–77% across the period
A striking counterpoint to the volume decline is the consistent rise in unit prices. Import prices per unit rose from €17.07 to €25.91 (+51.8%), while export prices climbed from €39.89 to €70.63 (+77.1%). When measured per tonne, the picture is similar: import prices rose from €32,279 to €55,727 (+72.6%) and export prices from €80,492 to €142,078 (+76.5%).
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import price — EUR/t | 32,279 | 55,727 | +72.6% |
| Import price — EUR/p/st | 17.07 | 25.91 | +51.8% |
| Export price — EUR/t | 80,492 | 142,078 | +76.5% |
| Export price — EUR/p/st | 39.89 | 70.63 | +77.1% |
Sources: Overview
2.2 Several forces may explain the price resilience
The divergence between collapsing volumes and rising unit values likely reflects several concurrent factors:
- Premiumisation of remaining demand: As low-end cordless handsets are replaced by smartphones, the surviving market may skew toward higher-end models (DECT systems with answering machines, multi-handset packs, or specialised business units).
- Input cost inflation: Post-2020 supply-chain disruptions, semiconductor shortages, and rising energy costs in Europe have pushed up manufacturing and logistics costs, which are passed through to unit prices.
- Currency and logistics effects: Freight rate spikes in 2021–2022 and a weaker euro at certain points may have inflated landed costs.
2.3 Specific price shocks were detected in the data
The supply shock analysis identifies three notable events:
| Entity | Flow | Year | Type | Shift | Abnormality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Exports | 2022 | Price | +113.0% | 65.2 |
| United Arab Emirates | Exports | 2022 | Price | +222.9% | 12.0 |
| Viet Nam | Imports | 2023 | Price | –14.6% | 23.7 |
The 2022 price spikes for exports to Norway and the UAE are broadly consistent with the post-pandemic logistics squeeze and the energy-price shock following the onset of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The 2023 Viet Nam import price decline may reflect easing supply-chain pressures and a normalisation of freight costs.
Sources: Supply shocks
3. Geographic reconfiguration: growing import dependence and shifting supplier landscapes
3.1 China remains the dominant supplier, but its share has eroded
The partner data shows that China has consistently been the EU's largest source of cordless telephones, but its import value fell from €146.2 million to €73.5 million (–49.7%). While China's absolute decline mirrors the overall market shrinkage, several other partners experienced far steeper contractions, actually increasing China's relative dominance. Import concentration (HHI by value) rose from 4,489 to 5,297 (+18.0%), confirming that import sourcing has become more, not less, concentrated on fewer origins.
| Partner | Imports 2015 (€M) | Imports 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 146.2 | 73.5 | –49.7% |
| Malaysia | 9.3 | 16.1 | +73.9% |
| Viet Nam | 22.2 | 5.6 | –74.8% |
| Hong Kong | 23.0 | 2.5 | –89.3% |
| United Kingdom | 18.9 | 1.1 | –94.5% |
Sources: Partners
3.2 Brexit reshaped UK–EU trade flows in both directions
The United Kingdom appears as a top partner for both imports and exports, and its decline is among the most dramatic in the dataset. EU imports from the UK fell by 94.5% (from €18.9 million to €1.1 million), and exports to the UK fell by 65.5% (from €29.0 million to €10.0 million). These shifts — steeper than the overall market decline — are consistent with the trade-friction effects of Brexit, including new customs procedures, rules-of-origin requirements, and currency volatility that disrupted what was previously seamless intra-European commerce.
3.3 Import reliance has deepened despite smaller volumes
The net import reliance indicator rose from 37.8% to 55.4% (+46.8%). In other words, even as the total market shrank, the EU's need for imported cordless telephones grew relative to its domestic capacity. This is a direct consequence of the production collapse: with output down nearly 90%, the remaining demand must increasingly be met from abroad.
| Vulnerability indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance (%) | 37.8 | 55.4 | +46.8% |
| Trade intensity (%) | 63.6 | 112.9 | +77.5% |
| Export propensity (%) | 30.4 | 147.8 | +386.4% |
Sources: Net import reliance, Trade intensity, Export propensity
3.4 Specialisation patterns point to niche production in new EU member states
The specialisation data for 2025 reveals that Bulgaria (RSCA: 0.85) and Romania (RSCA: 0.72) are the EU's most specialised exporters of cordless telephones by a wide margin, followed by Denmark (RSCA: 0.44). Meanwhile, the larger economies — Germany, France, Italy, and Spain — have seen their exports contract by 60–82%. This suggests that what remains of EU production is increasingly concentrated in lower-cost Eastern European locations or in specific niche operations (e.g., Denmark's notable export surge from €0.8 million to €9.8 million, a +1,154% increase).
| Reporter (exports) | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 37.3 | 13.5 | –63.8% |
| Denmark | 0.8 | 9.8 | +1,154% |
| France | 11.9 | 2.1 | –82.1% |
| Spain | 12.3 | 2.9 | –76.1% |
Sources: Reporters
3.5 Export destination volatility highlights geopolitical sensitivities
The volatility analysis shows that some export partners exhibit high coefficient-of-variation scores, indicating unstable trade flows. Exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 98.2% (from €2.4 million to just €43 thousand), almost certainly a consequence of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Exports to Ukraine also show very high volatility (CV: 1.96), reflecting the disruptions of the same conflict. On the import side, sourcing from Hong Kong (CV: 1.01) and Thailand (CV: 1.07) proved highly unstable over the period.
Conclusion
The EU market for cordless telephones (CN 851711) has undergone a decade of sustained contraction, driven by the secular decline of fixed-line telephony in favour of mobile and internet-based communication. Trade volumes fell by roughly 70% between 2015 and 2025, and EU domestic production collapsed by nearly 90%. Against this backdrop of shrinking demand, unit prices have risen markedly — likely reflecting a combination of premiumisation, input-cost inflation, and supply-chain disruptions — while the EU's net import reliance has deepened from 37.8% to 55.4%. China has consolidated its position as the dominant external supplier, while import concentration has increased. Brexit and the Russia–Ukraine conflict have left visible scars on the trade geography, with UK and Russian flows collapsing. What remains of EU activity is increasingly concentrated in a handful of specialised member states, led by Bulgaria, Romania, and Denmark. Going forward, the market is likely to continue its structural decline, with the remaining trade increasingly shaped by niche demand, higher-value products, and the geopolitical and regulatory environment governing EU–Asia supply chains.