Market evolution: Coking coal (CN 27011210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Coking coal (CN 27011210) is a critical input for the European steel industry, used in blast-furnace coke production. The EU is overwhelmingly dependent on imports of this commodity, with no meaningful domestic production mapping available for the period under review. Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's coking coal trade was shaped by three converging forces: a dramatic geopolitical reconfiguration of supply chains following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, extreme price volatility in global energy and metallurgical commodity markets, and a long-term contraction in import volumes reflecting structural shifts in European steelmaking. This report examines these dynamics using the EU Trade Dashboard data.

1. Declining Volumes, Rising Costs: The EU's Deepening Import Dilemma

Import volumes contracted while expenditure surged

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's coking coal imports tell a story of opposing forces. Import volumes fell from 32.3 million tonnes (2015) to 24.3 million tonnes (2025), a decline of 24.9%. At the same time, the average import price rose from €100 per tonne to €170 per tonne (+70.1%), pushing the total import bill from €3.24 billion to €4.34 billion (+33.8%).

Source: General Overview

The 2022 energy crisis produced an extreme price-and-value peak

The period's most dramatic event was the 2022 global energy crisis triggered by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent EU sanctions on Russian coal. Import prices reached an all-time high of €354.5 per tonne — more than triple the 2015 level — while the total import value peaked at €8.79 billion, the maximum over the entire period. Although volumes fell to roughly 24.7 million tonnes that year, the price surge was so pronounced that the EU's import expenditure nearly tripled relative to 2015. The trade deficit accordingly widened to its deepest point at −€8.76 billion.

Long-term volume decline reflects structural shifts in European steelmaking

The sustained contraction in coking coal import volumes — falling from a peak of 35.4 million tonnes (likely around 2017–2018) to 20.6 million tonnes at the trough — aligns with broader trends in the European steel sector, including blast-furnace idling, the accelerated shift toward electric arc furnace (EAF) production, and weaker industrial demand in the context of the 2020 COVID-19 downturn and the 2023–2024 European manufacturing recession. By 2025, volumes had partially recovered to 24.3 million tonnes but remained well below their pre-crisis levels.

2. Supply Reconfiguration: The Collapse of Russian Imports and the Rise of the United States

Russia was virtually eliminated as a supplier following EU sanctions

The most striking partner-country dynamic was the near-total disappearance of Russian coking coal. In 2015, the Russian Federation supplied €349 million worth of coking coal to the EU. By 2025, this figure had fallen to just €314,402 — a decline of 99.9%. This reflects the EU's August 2022 coal import ban as part of its sanctions packages against Russia. Over the period, Russia's share reached a peak of €652 million before collapsing.

The United States became the EU's leading supplier

The United States nearly doubled its coking coal exports to the EU, rising from €1.08 billion in 2015 to €2.12 billion in 2025 (+97.0%). A US price shock was detected in 2022 with an abnormality score of 7.2 and a price shift of 151.3%, reflecting the energy crisis environment. By 2025, the United States had overtaken Australia as the EU's top supplier by value.

Australia remained a dominant but volatile supplier

Australia's exports to the EU grew from €1.30 billion to €1.77 billion (+36.2%), but the relationship was marked by significant price volatility. A major price shock was detected in 2017 (abnormality score of 288.9, price shift of +93.4%), corresponding to the global metallurgical coal price spike caused by Cyclone Debbie disrupting Australian supply. Australia's import value peaked at €4.06 billion during the 2022 energy crisis, when it accounted for 50.5% of EU import value.

Source: Top partners by value

Supply concentration increased markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 2,930 in 2015 to 4,089 in 2025 (+39.5%), crossing from moderate into high concentration territory. By volume, the HHI similarly increased from 2,834 to 4,207 (+48.4%). This reflects the combined effect of Russia's elimination and the growing dominance of Australia and the United States, which together now account for the vast majority of EU coking coal imports.

The Netherlands and Germany were the primary entry points

Among EU member states, the Netherlands was the largest importer, rising from €967 million to €1.53 billion (+57.7%) and peaking at €2.77 billion. This reflects the role of Rotterdam and Amsterdam as key coal transhipment hubs. Germany's imports fell from €510 million to €356 million (−30.2%), consistent with the country's accelerated coal phase-out and steel sector restructuring. Belgium (+94.0%) and Slovakia (+84.7%) saw the strongest growth among EU importers.

Source: Top reporters by value

3. EU Exports: A Small but Rapidly Growing Flow to Eastern Europe

Exports surged, driven overwhelmingly by Ukraine

While the EU is a massive net importer of coking coal, exports grew from €21.5 million in 2015 to €139.9 million in 2025, an increase of 552.2%. In volume terms, exports rose from 217,000 tonnes to 756,000 tonnes (+248.2%). Ukraine was by far the dominant destination, absorbing €138.6 million of the €139.9 million total in 2025 — or approximately 99% of EU coking coal exports by value. This reflects Ukraine's reliance on European supply chains to feed its steel sector, a dependence that intensified following the disruption of traditional supply routes through Russia.

A price shock in 2021 marked the turning point for Ukrainian exports

A significant price shock in EU exports to Ukraine was detected in 2021 (abnormality score of 27.6, price shift of +114.0%). This preceded the 2022 conflict and likely reflected tightening global coking coal markets and pre-conflict supply concerns. Ukrainian export flows remained volatile, with a coefficient of variation of 0.74 — the highest among major export partners for which this metric could be computed.

Export concentration remained extremely high

The export HHI stood at 9,821 in 2025 by value (and 9,822 by volume), indicating near-total concentration in a single destination. While other export partners existed — Bosnia and Herzegovina (€337K), Türkiye (€20.2M), Albania (€359K), and the United Kingdom (€9K) — none approached Ukraine's scale. The export market is structurally a niche by-product of EU port logistics and surplus handling, rather than a strategic trade flow.

Source: Top partners by value

Conclusion

The EU's coking coal trade between 2015 and 2025 was defined by a fundamental tension: import volumes contracted by nearly a quarter, yet the total import bill grew by over a third, driven by sustained price inflation and the extreme spike of the 2022 energy crisis. Geopolitically, the period saw a dramatic reorientation of supply away from Russia — which went from a €349 million supplier to near-zero — and toward the United States, which nearly doubled its share to become the EU's top coking coal source. This shift increased import concentration, with the HHI rising into highly concentrated territory. Meanwhile, EU exports, though small in absolute terms, grew more than fivefold, almost entirely directed to Ukraine as the country's steel industry sought alternative supply channels. Looking ahead, the EU faces a structural challenge: its dependence on long-distance coking coal imports from a shrinking pool of suppliers, at rising cost, even as its own steel sector undergoes a fundamental transformation toward lower-carbon production methods.