Market evolution: Chassis for buses and trucks (CN 87060011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in goods classified under Combined Nomenclature code 87060011 — chassis fitted with large-displacement compression-ignition or spark-ignition engines for buses (transport of ten or more persons) and goods vehicles. The period under review, 2015–2025, spans several structural shifts in the European commercial vehicle industry: Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-chain disruptions, and the accelerating reorganisation of global production networks.

The product scope covers a niche but capital-intensive segment of the automotive industry. EU production of these chassis remained broadly stable over the decade, at around 233,000–239,000 units (valued at approximately €1.8 billion), yet the pattern of how, where and to whom those chassis are traded changed profoundly. Three dynamics stand out: (i) the EU consolidated its position as a dominant net exporter; (ii) the geographic centre of gravity of EU export flows shifted decisively away from the United Kingdom and towards emerging markets in the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America; and (iii) within the EU, a handful of Central and Eastern European member states — notably Poland and Czechia — emerged as major exporters, reshaping the internal specialisation map.

1. A Net-Export Powerhouse Consolidating Its Position

1.1 The trade surplus remained large and stable throughout the period

The EU has consistently run a substantial trade surplus in CN 87060011 chassis. The trade balance stood at approximately €703 million in the first year and rose to around €715 million by the last — a modest increase of 1.7 %. At its trough (almost certainly in 2020, the year of minimum values across the board), the surplus dipped to approximately €253 million, but it recovered sharply, peaking at roughly €816 million before settling back.

The relatively small import base — never exceeding €27 million over the decade — underscores that the EU is overwhelmingly self-sufficient in this product category and uses the global market primarily as an outlet for surplus production.

1.2 Export volumes fell while values held up, signalling a move up-market

A striking feature of the period is the divergence between volume and value trends in EU exports. Export mass (net tonnes) declined by 12.6 % over the period, from about 57,400 t to 50,100 t, yet export value rose by 1.9 %. The implied average price per tonne climbed from €12,595 to €14,694 (+16.7 %), indicating that the EU shipped fewer tonnes but of higher unit value.

The number of chassis units exported actually rose slightly (+5.7 %), even as total tonnage fell. This implies that the average weight per exported chassis decreased — consistent with a partial shift toward lighter-weight bus and medium truck chassis in the export mix. The decline in unit value (−3.5 %) alongside the rise in tonne price (+16.7 %) reinforces this interpretation: lighter vehicles fetched less per piece but more per kilogram.

1.3 The EU's net-export reliance deepened markedly

The net import reliance ratio — which measures the trade balance relative to apparent consumption — moved from −30.7 % to −80.6 %. Negative values denote a net-export position; the deepening of the ratio confirms that the EU's outward orientation intensified. At its most extreme (again likely during the pandemic trough in domestic demand), the ratio reached −111.7 %, meaning exports actually exceeded total domestic production in that year.

In parallel, export propensity — the share of EU production shipped to non-EU partners — surged from 26.3 % to 47.4 % (+79.8 %). Nearly half of all EU-made chassis in this category now leave the bloc, up from roughly one quarter a decade ago. Trade intensity (exports plus imports as a share of production) rose from 28.4 % to 48.8 %, further evidence of the sector's growing internationalisation.

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reorientation of Export Flows

2.1 The United Kingdom collapsed as an export destination

The single most consequential shift in the partner geography of EU chassis exports was the near-total withdrawal from the United Kingdom. Exports to the UK fell from €143.6 million in the first year to just €27.0 million in the last — a drop of 81.2 %. The UK had been the EU's single largest non-EU customer at the start of the period; by the end it had fallen to third place. This collapse is consistent with the post-Brexit introduction of customs checks, rules-of-origin requirements and regulatory divergence, which together added friction and cost to what had been a seamlessly integrated supply chain.

The UK's decline was not limited to the export side. EU imports from the UK also fell, from €16.0 million to €9.3 million (−41.5 %), though from a much smaller base. The bilateral relationship in this product category has thus contracted sharply in both directions.

2.2 Mexico, Egypt and China filled the void

Three markets absorbed much of the growth that replaced the UK:

Mexico's growth is particularly dramatic: from €22.9 million to €120.5 million, a more than fivefold increase. This likely reflects the expansion of European OEM assembly operations in Mexico (particularly for heavy trucks destined for the North American market), with chassis exported from the EU for final assembly locally. Egypt, meanwhile, grew from €33.8 million to €96.0 million, driven by infrastructure investment and fleet renewal in the bus segment. China's rise from €61.4 million to €99.7 million (+62.4 %) is noteworthy given that China itself has become a major vehicle manufacturer — it suggests that EU-made chassis retain a competitive edge in quality or specific technical niches within the Chinese market.

Australia (-45.1 %) and Israel (−16.7 %) are the notable decliners among the top seven partners, each losing ground over the decade.

2.3 On the import side, Türkiye emerged as a fast-growing supplier

EU imports in CN 87060011 remain small in absolute terms, but the composition shifted. Imports from Türkiye surged from just €216,000 to nearly €5.0 million — an increase of more than 2,200 %. Türkiye's emergence as a chassis supplier reflects its growing role in European commercial vehicle manufacturing, aided by its customs-union arrangement with the EU for industrial goods. Switzerland also more than doubled from €1.3 million to €3.1 million, while Norway grew by 93.3 % to €385,000.

A notable feature of the import data is the dramatic collapse in import unit values. The average price per imported chassis unit fell from €53,070 to €17,509 (−67.0 %), even as the number of units imported rose from 359 to 1,198 (+233.7 %). This pattern is consistent with the entry of lower-cost suppliers — primarily Türkiye — shipping smaller or simpler chassis configurations.

2.4 Import-source concentration fell sharply, while export-destination concentration edged up

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value dropped from 7,089 to 2,820 (−60.2 %), a substantial decline indicating that the EU diversified its import sources significantly. At the start of the period, imports were dominated by the UK; by the end, the supplier base was broader, with Türkiye, Switzerland, Norway and others each holding meaningful shares.

For exports, the HHI remained low (from 821 to 883, +7.5 %), indicating that the EU has always shipped to a wide range of destinations. The slight increase reflects the growing weight of a few large buyers — Mexico, Egypt, China — even as the overall number of partners remained diverse.

3. Internal Restructuring: Central and Eastern Europe Rise, Traditional Powers Retreat

3.1 Sweden remained the largest exporter but lost significant ground

Among EU member states, Sweden consistently held the top position, reflecting the presence of major commercial vehicle manufacturers (Scania, Volvo). However, Swedish exports fell from €422.8 million to €288.2 million, a decline of 31.8 %. Even at their peak, Swedish exports reached €525.9 million, suggesting that the country's dominance has been eroding since well before the end of the period.

3.2 Poland's export surge was the most dramatic structural change within the EU

The most striking intra-EU development was the explosive growth of Polish exports, which rose from €40.5 million to €275.1 million — an increase of 578.4 %. Poland thus went from a minor exporter to the second-largest in the EU, overtaking the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and nearly catching Sweden. This growth reflects the significant investment by major OEMs in Polish manufacturing capacity over the past decade, leveraging lower labour costs and EU structural funds.

Czechia's trajectory is equally remarkable: exports grew from a negligible €276,000 to €40.1 million, effectively from nothing to a major player. The RSCA specialisation index confirms this transformation: Sweden leads with an RSCA of 0.85, followed by Spain (0.57), Slovakia (0.57), Portugal (0.36) and Belgium (0.11). Meanwhile, traditional automotive powers Germany and the Netherlands experienced steep declines (−76.8 % and −61.3 % respectively), suggesting a reallocation of chassis production toward lower-cost EU member states.

3.3 EU production remained stable in volume, but flat in value — implying pricing pressure

EU production volumes in this product category edged up slightly from 232,756 units to 238,525 (+2.5 %), but production value was essentially flat at approximately €1.8 billion (−0.4 %). The pandemic year saw a sharp dip — to 111,275 units and €961 million in value — followed by a strong recovery that carried output to a peak of 392,061 units and €2.17 billion before settling back.

The stagnation of production value in real terms, combined with rising export prices per tonne, suggests that the industry is being squeezed between cost pressures (energy, raw materials, labour) and competitive pricing constraints. The relocation of production to Central and Eastern Europe can be seen as one response to this margin pressure.

3.4 Supply shocks were rare but geographically concentrated

The volatility analysis reveals that the most notable shocks occurred in:

• Singapore (exports, 2021): a price shock with an abnormality score of 11.2 and a 22.3 % price shift, affecting 4.0 % of export value. This may reflect one-off high-value contracts or pandemic-related supply distortions.
• China (exports, 2020): a price shock (abnormality 7.2, +18.3 % shift) accounting for 9.9 % of export value, coinciding with the first year of COVID-19 and associated logistics disruptions.
• Pakistan (imports, 2022): a supply shock where imports collapsed entirely (−100 % shift), though Pakistan represents only 0.5 % of import value, limiting the macro impact.

Among the major trading partners, the United Kingdom exhibited the highest coefficient of variation in export flows (CV = 0.81), reflecting the structural break caused by Brexit. Among import sources, Brazil (CV = 2.04) and Norway (CV = 1.46) showed the highest volatility, though both are small-volume partners.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as the world's leading net exporter of large-displacement chassis for buses and trucks. The trade surplus remained in the range of €700–800 million, and the EU's export propensity nearly doubled, with close to half of all domestic production now shipped to non-EU markets.

Beneath this aggregate stability, however, lay profound structural changes. Brexit catalysed a dramatic withdrawal from the UK market, which was replaced by rapidly growing demand from Mexico, Egypt and China. Within the EU, Poland and Czechia emerged as major exporters, displacing Germany and the Netherlands and reflecting a broader eastward reallocation of commercial vehicle manufacturing. Import sources diversified sharply, with Türkiye's emergence as a low-cost supplier adding a new dimension to intra-European supply chains.

The data points to an industry that is resilient but under pricing pressure: export volumes rose while values stagnated, and the move toward lighter, lower-unit-value chassis suggests that competitive dynamics — both from within the EU (Central European producers) and from outside (Turkish imports) — are reshaping the market. Looking ahead, the twin pressures of decarbonisation (electrification and alternative fuels) and continued production relocation are likely to further transform this segment in ways that the 2015–2025 data already foreshadows.