Market evolution: Blood and immunological products (CN 3002) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in CN 3002 — a broad heading covering human and animal blood products, antisera, immunological products, vaccines, toxins, cultures of micro-organisms, and cell cultures — over the period 2015–2025. The decade under review was marked by extraordinary growth: EU exports more than tripled in value (from €33.2 billion to €114.9 billion, General Overview), while imports rose from €22.1 billion to €57.3 billion (+158.8%). The EU's trade surplus widened from €11.0 billion to €57.6 billion (+422.3%), confirming the bloc's position as a structural net exporter. Three main dynamics emerge from the data: a pronounced price-driven surge in trade values that far outpaced volume growth; a dramatic COVID-era vaccine shock and its subsequent normalisation; and a geographical reorientation of trade flows toward the United States and select Asian economies.

I. Value Escalation Outpaces Volume: The Price Engine of Growth

Export and import values grew three to four times faster than traded volumes

Between 2015 and 2025, the volume of EU exports of CN 3002 products rose by 58.2%, from 52,443 tonnes to 82,941 tonnes. Yet the value of those exports surged by 246.4%, reaching €114.9 billion. The gap is explained almost entirely by price increases: the average unit export price climbed from €632,468 per tonne to €1,385,662 per tonne (+119.1%). The same pattern held on the import side, where volumes grew 31.5% while values rose 158.8%, and average import prices nearly doubled (+96.8%) (General Overview).

Immunological products in retail-ready forms drove the steepest price appreciation

The product segment that contributed most to value growth was CN 300215 — immunological products put up in measured doses or retail packaging. EU imports of this subheading rose from €16.4 billion (2017, first available year) to €26.9 billion (2025), while exports surged from €18.1 billion to €68.6 billion. At the product level, export prices for 300215 climbed from €1,967,767/t in 2017 to €5,281,775/t in 2025 (+168%), indicating a shift toward higher-value-added biopharmaceuticals such as monoclonal antibodies and other advanced immunological treatments (Product Segment Breakdown).

The EU's structural surplus widened as export propensity exceeded domestic production

By 2025, the EU's net import reliance had fallen to −431.4%, meaning exports were more than five times larger than imports. Export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — reached 144.1% in 2025, up from 35.0% in 2015, implying that a large share of EU-manufactured CN 3002 output is destined for foreign markets (Autonomy & Vulnerability). EU production value itself expanded enormously — from €855 million to €81.7 billion at the Prodcom level — reflecting the shift of the EU pharmaceutical industry toward high-value biologics (Market Structure).

II. The COVID-19 Vaccine Shock and Its Uneven Unwinding

Vaccine trade surged during the pandemic and has only partially normalised

Before 2021, separate data for human vaccines (CN 300241) were not reported at this aggregation level, but the available data reveal a sharp pandemic-era spike. EU exports of human vaccines peaked at €36.9 billion in 2022, then declined to €16.8 billion by 2025 — still far above any pre-pandemic baseline. Import flows followed a similar arc: human vaccine imports rose to €6.9 billion in 2022 before retreating to €3.9 billion in 2025. The volume peak in exports was reached in 2022 at 12,200 tonnes, after which volumes stabilised around 10,500 tonnes (Product Segment Breakdown).

Vaccine price deflation accompanied the post-pandemic volume correction

The decline in vaccine export values was driven primarily by falling unit prices rather than collapsing volumes. The average export price for human vaccines fell from €3,027,916/t in 2022 to €1,599,932/t in 2025 (−47.2%), reflecting both the waning of pandemic-era demand premiums and increased global supply capacity as manufacturers in India, China, and elsewhere scaled up production. Importantly, export quantities remained broadly resilient, suggesting that the EU retained a significant share of global vaccine distribution even as pricing normalised.

The import spike of 2021 was dominated by a single subheading

A notable anomaly appears in the import quantity data for CN 300215 (immunological products for retail sale): volumes surged to approximately 79,700 tonnes in 2021 before falling back to around 5,000–15,000 tonnes in subsequent years. This spike likely reflects emergency imports of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments during the height of the pandemic. The corresponding import value in 2021 was €22.8 billion, only modestly above the 2025 level of €26.9 billion, implying that the 2021 spike involved large quantities of relatively lower-priced products (Product Segment Breakdown).

The pandemic also reshaped other product segments

Beyond vaccines, the subheading for immunological products mixed and not put up for retail sale (CN 300214) saw EU imports rise from €4.4 billion in 2017 to €13.6 billion in 2025 (+211%), and exports from €0.8 billion to €6.7 billion — growth that may partly reflect post-pandemic diversification of immunotherapy pipelines. Meanwhile, trade in human and animal blood products (CN 300290) contracted sharply on both sides: import values fell from a peak of €2.4 billion (2021) to €112 million (2025), and export values from €5.4 billion (2021) to €135 million (2025), suggesting either reclassification of products or a structural decline in traditional blood-product trade.

III. Geographical Reorientation: The United States Dominates, Asian Partners Surge

The United States consolidated its position as the EU's largest trade partner in CN 3002

The US was already the EU's top partner in 2015, but the relationship deepened dramatically. EU exports to the US rose from €9.5 billion to €58.8 billion (+520.9%), while imports from the US grew from €10.7 billion to €25.7 billion (+141.4%). By 2025, the US accounted for roughly half of all EU CN 3002 exports and 45% of imports by value (Top Partners). This bilateral intensity reflects deep integration between EU and US pharmaceutical supply chains, particularly in biologics and immunological products.

Switzerland and South Korea emerged as major import sources

EU imports from Switzerland nearly tripled, rising from €6.8 billion to €19.4 billion, cementing Switzerland's role as the EU's second-largest supplier — consistent with the country's strong pharmaceutical manufacturing base (Roche, Novartis). Far more striking in relative terms was the rise of South Korea: EU imports from Korea grew from €335 million to €5.2 billion (+1,441%), reflecting the rapid scaling of Korean biosimilar and biologic manufacturers and their increasing penetration of the EU market.

Trade with China grew explosively from a low base but remains volatile

EU imports from China surged from €19 million in 2015 to a peak of €4.7 billion in 2023 before falling back to €213 million in 2025 — an extremely volatile trajectory with a coefficient of variation of 2.6 on imports, the highest among all major partners (Volatility & Shocks). A sharp price shock was detected in 2023, when import prices from China shifted by +604.8% with an abnormality score of 151.8, suggesting a significant compositional change — possibly a temporary concentration of high-value imports (Supply Shocks).

EU export concentration increased while import concentration remained stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by partner rose from 1,505 to 2,875 (+91%), indicating growing concentration of exports toward a smaller number of dominant partners — principally the United States. By contrast, import HHI remained broadly stable (from 3,458 to 3,340, −3.4%), suggesting that while the identity of key import suppliers has shifted (with Korea gaining ground), the degree of concentration has not materially changed (Concentration).

Ireland and Italy emerged as the EU's fastest-growing exporters

Among EU Member States, Ireland stands out as the most specialised exporter of CN 3002 products, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.82 and an RCA of 10.15 in 2025 — by far the highest in the bloc. Irish exports grew from €3.9 billion to €24.6 billion (+524.3%), driven by the country's role as a hub for biopharmaceutical manufacturing. Italy showed the most dramatic relative growth, with exports rising from €0.8 billion to €9.2 billion (+1,042.5%), potentially reflecting expanded vaccine and biologics production capacity. Belgium (RSCA 0.24) and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.16) also maintained strong specialisation, with export values of €19.1 billion and €12.8 billion respectively (Most Specialised Reporters).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 3002 products underwent a structural transformation over 2015–2025, characterised by surging values that far exceeded volume growth, a pandemic-driven vaccine boom that has since partially unwound, and a deepening concentration of trade with the United States. The bloc's trade surplus expanded more than fivefold, underpinned by strong export competitiveness in high-value immunological products and biologics. While the immediate effects of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns have faded, their legacy persists in expanded production capacity, higher baseline trade values, and altered geographical patterns — including the rapid rise of South Korea as an import source and the growing role of Italy and Ireland as EU export hubs. Going forward, the declining export prices for human vaccines and the extreme volatility in EU-China trade flows are worth monitoring, as they signal both the normalisation of pandemic-era distortions and the emergence of new competitive dynamics in the global biopharmaceutical market.