Market evolution: Immunological products (CN 300213) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in immunological products under customs code 300213 — covering unmixed immunological products not put up in measured doses or retail packaging (excluding diagnostic reagents). Although the data window spans 2015–2025, complete trade data are available from 2017 onwards, so all comparisons refer to the 2017–2025 period. Over these nine years, the EU's immunological trade landscape has undergone profound structural shifts: a widening trade deficit driven by rapidly rising imports, dramatic changes in unit values reflecting evolving product composition, geographic reorientation of both sourcing and destination markets, and growing exposure to supply-side price shocks. EU domestic production value, meanwhile, grew by 65%, reaching €48.2 billion, yet this expansion has not kept pace with import growth.

The data analysed here can be explored in detail on the EU Trade Dashboard for CN 300213.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Amid Structural Shifts in Export Composition

1.1 EU imports more than doubled while exports stagnated

The most striking feature of the 2017–2025 period is the divergence between import and export trajectories. EU imports of CN 300213 products grew from €622 million in 2017 to €1,501 million in 2025, an increase of 141.1%. Over the same period, EU exports fell from €509 million to €460 million (−9.6%). The result was a dramatic widening of the trade deficit from €114 million in 2017 to over €1,041 million in 2025.

However, both trade flows exhibited extreme volatility within the period. Exports peaked at €1,416 million (likely in 2021 or 2022, coinciding with the COVID-19 vaccine boom) before falling sharply, while imports peaked at €2,289 million before correcting to €1,501 million. This pattern suggests a temporary pandemic-driven surge superimposed on a longer-term trend of growing import dependence. Full time-series data are available in the General Overview.

1.2 Export volumes exploded while unit values collapsed

Behind the headline export value figures lies an extraordinary compositional shift. EU export volumes surged from 27.4 tonnes in 2017 to 766.0 tonnes in 2025 — an increase of nearly 2,700%. Over the same period, the average export unit price collapsed from €18.5 million per tonne to just €0.6 million per tonne (−96.8%).

This inverse movement strongly suggests a fundamental change in the composition of EU exports. In the early period, the EU exported very small volumes of extremely high-value immunological products (consistent with bulk active pharmaceutical ingredients or concentrated biologics). By 2025, the exported volume had grown enormously but at far lower unit values, pointing to a shift toward larger-volume, lower-value-added intermediates or different product sub-categories within the CN 300213 heading.

Import unit values, by contrast, remained elevated and actually rose by 27.5%, from €6.3 million to €8.0 million per tonne. This asymmetry — falling export prices alongside rising import prices — represents a deteriorating terms of trade for the EU in this product category.

1.3 EU production expanded strongly but could not close the widening deficit

According to PRODCOM production data, EU domestic production of antisera, blood fractions, and immunological products (PRODCOM 21.20.21.26) grew from €29.2 billion to €48.2 billion over the observed period — a 65% increase. Nonetheless, the net import reliance metric deteriorated sharply, from −164.9% to −536.8%, indicating that the trade deficit widened far faster than production grew. While the EU remains a major global producer, its growing appetite for imported immunological products has outpaced domestic capacity expansion. Details are available in the net import reliance dashboard.

2. Geographic Reorientation: From the United States Toward Switzerland and Asia

2.1 The United States lost ground as a supplier while Switzerland and Japan surged

The geographic composition of EU imports shifted markedly between 2017 and 2025. The United States, which was the EU's largest import source at €363 million in 2017, saw its share decline to €252 million by 2025 (−30.8%). Meanwhile, Switzerland surged from €214 million to €530 million (+148.0%), and Japan experienced the most dramatic growth of any partner, rising from €18 million to €257 million (+1,363.5%).

These dynamics reflect broader trends in the global pharmaceutical industry. Switzerland's growth is consistent with the expansion of major biopharmaceutical companies (Roche, Novartis) and contract manufacturing capacity. Japan's surge likely reflects the maturation of Japanese biologics manufacturing and increased supply to the EU market. The data for top import partners is available in the by-country partners view.

2.2 EU export destinations also diversified, with the US giving way to the UK and Japan

On the export side, the United States remained the largest single destination but saw its value drop from €369 million to €132 million (−64.2%). By contrast, exports to Switzerland grew from €127 million to €233 million (+84.0%), while the United Kingdom (from €3.3 million to €19.8 million, +506.8%) and Japan (from €4.3 million to €25.5 million, +498.3%) emerged as significant markets. Canada also appeared as a new destination, rising from virtually nothing to €1.2 million.

The strengthening of EU–UK trade flows in immunological products is notable and may partly reflect post-Brexit supply-chain adjustments, where the UK sources more immunological bulk products from the EU rather than relying on intra-EU channels. Export destination data is available in the by-country partners view.

2.3 Intra-EU leadership shifted decisively toward Germany and Austria

Within the EU, the member states driving extra-EU trade in CN 300213 changed substantially. Germany consolidated its position as the dominant trade hub: its extra-EU imports surged from €70 million to €623 million (+794.8%), and its exports grew from €148 million to €187 million (+26.4%). Austria emerged as a major new importer, rising from €1.6 million to €298 million (+18,534%), likely reflecting the establishment or expansion of biopharmaceutical production and processing facilities.

Conversely, Ireland's imports collapsed from €91 million to €20 million (−78.7%), and Belgium's from €188 million to just €10 million (−94.4%). These declines suggest a restructuring of supply chains, with immunological bulk products increasingly routed through Germany and Austria rather than through the traditional Benelux and Irish pharmaceutical hubs. On the export side, new players emerged: Spain grew to €47 million, Denmark to €43 million, Lithuania to €27 million, and France to €19 million. Intra-EU reporting data is available in the by-country reporters view.

2.4 Trade concentration declined, reflecting a more diversified partner base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 4,608 to 3,134 (−32%), and for exports from 5,648 to 3,615 (−36%). Both import and export concentration also declined when measured by volume. These reductions indicate a meaningful diversification of the EU's trade partners for immunological products, reducing the structural dependence on any single country. This trend is beneficial from a supply-security perspective, though it also reflects the fragmentation of a market that was previously more concentrated around US and Swiss suppliers.

Concentration metrics can be explored in the concentration dashboard.

3. Price Shocks and Rising Exposure to External Volatility

3.1 Two major price shocks were detected in the import flow

The supply shocks analysis identified two significant price shock events in EU imports:

The 2020 US price shock (abnormality score: 16.8, +126.0% unit price shift) coincides with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, when global demand for immunological products — including antibodies, convalescent plasma fractions, and early vaccine-related intermediates — surged. The US, as the EU's largest supplier at the time (63.6% of import value), transmitted this price spike directly into EU import costs.

The 2023 Swiss price shock (abnormality score: 27.4, +212.5%) was even more extreme in magnitude. By 2023, Switzerland had become the EU's top import partner, and the tripling of unit prices from this source likely reflects a combination of product-mix effects (shift toward higher-value immunological products), post-pandemic repricing, and possible supply constraints in specific biologics sub-categories.

3.2 Import volatility was concentrated among Asian partners

The coefficient of variation analysis reveals that the most volatile import relationships — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual trade values — were with:

• China (CV = 2.48): reflecting highly erratic flows, consistent with the nascent and fast-evolving nature of China's biologics export sector.
• Japan (CV = 1.58): driven by the surge from €18 million to €257 million, creating high inter-year variability.
• Taiwan (CV = 1.51): similarly reflecting an emerging but unstable supply relationship.

By contrast, the two largest partners — the United States (CV = 0.75) and Switzerland (CV = 0.78) — showed lower relative volatility, indicating more stable and predictable trade relationships despite the absolute price shocks described above.

On the export side, the most volatile destinations were Mexico (CV = 2.14), Israel (CV = 1.85), Russia (CV = 1.79), and Switzerland (CV = 1.56), while the largest export partner, the United States (CV = 0.73), again showed comparatively low volatility.

3.3 EU export specialisation remained concentrated in a handful of Western European member states

In 2025, the revealed comparative advantage analysis shows that extra-EU export specialisation in CN 300213 was concentrated in five member states:

Belgium and France together accounted for nearly half of EU extra-EU CN 300213 exports despite declining import activity, suggesting these countries serve as specialised production and re-export hubs. At the other end, large economies such as Italy (RSCA = −0.97) and Finland (RSCA = −1.00) showed no meaningful specialisation in this product category, underscoring the highly uneven geographic distribution of biologics manufacturing capacity within the EU.

3.4 Trade intensity and export propensity both declined, signalling a maturing pattern of external engagement

Two structural indicators point to a moderation in the EU's overall orientation toward external trade in this product:

• Trade intensity (total extra-EU trade relative to production) fell from 155.7% to 140.5% (−9.8%), suggesting that a growing share of immunological products is consumed or processed within the EU's internal market.
• Export propensity (extra-EU exports relative to production) declined more sharply, from 218.7% to 178.7% (−18.3%), indicating that while EU production expanded, it was increasingly directed inward rather than toward external markets.

These trends, documented in the vulnerability dashboard, are consistent with the EU's strategic push toward pharmaceutical sovereignty and the reshoring of biologics capacity in the post-pandemic era.

Conclusion

Between 2017 and 2025, the EU's trade in immunological products (CN 300213) underwent a structural transformation. The trade deficit widened from €114 million to over €1 billion, driven by a 141% surge in imports against a backdrop of flat or declining export values. Behind the aggregate figures, profound compositional shifts occurred: export unit values collapsed by 97% even as volumes grew twenty-seven-fold, indicating a fundamental change in the nature of what the EU exports under this code. Geographically, the United States receded as both a supplier and a buyer, while Switzerland, Japan, and the United Kingdom gained prominence — a reorientation that diversifies the EU's trade base but also introduces new dependencies, as the 2023 Swiss price shock demonstrated. Within the EU, Germany and Austria emerged as dominant trade hubs at the expense of Ireland and Belgium. While EU production of immunological products grew by 65% and trade concentration declined, the erosion of export propensity and the widening of import reliance suggest that the EU is becoming a larger but more inward-looking producer, increasingly dependent on external sources for bulk immunological inputs. Policymakers should monitor the continued divergence between rising import costs and falling export unit values, as this terms-of-trade deterioration may signal a long-term competitiveness challenge in this strategically important sector.