Market evolution: Biodiesel blends under 70 (CN 38260090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union trade in biodiesel mixtures falling under customs code 38260090 from 2015 to 2025. The period was marked by significant policy shifts in the EU's renewable energy framework, including the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) which set ambitious targets for renewable energy in transport. The data reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade position, moving from a strong net exporter to a net importer of this specific biodiesel blend, characterized by a sharp decline in export volumes and a surge in imports from a diversifying set of suppliers.

1. A Structural Reversal in the EU's Trade Balance

The EU's trade flow for CN 38260090 underwent a dramatic reversal over the decade. The bloc transitioned from being a significant net exporter to becoming a net importer, reflecting changing production economics, policy incentives, and domestic demand patterns.

Export contraction and import growth redefined the trade balance

The EU's exports of this biodiesel blend plummeted, with the value falling from €31.1 million in 2015 to €23.7 million in 2025, a decrease of 23.6%. The decline was even steeper in terms of volume, which dropped by 38.1%. Conversely, imports surged dramatically: import value grew by 235.0% to €11.3 million, and volume expanded by an extraordinary 495.4% to reach nearly 13,000 tonnes. This divergence caused the trade balance to deteriorate from a surplus of €27.7 million in 2015 to a reduced surplus of €12.4 million in 2025, representing a 55.1% contraction.

The UK and Switzerland drove opposing trends in EU trade

The restructuring of trade flows was geographically concentrated. The United Kingdom, historically the EU's largest single export market for this product, saw its imports from the EU collapse by 95.4%, falling from €10.8 million to just under €0.5 million. This is a clear consequence of the UK's exit from the EU single market and customs union. Simultaneously, Switzerland emerged as the EU's primary export destination, with trade growing from negligible levels to €20.3 million, making it the dominant export partner by 2025.

The EU's export market became highly concentrated while imports diversified

Market concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), tells a story of diverging strategies. The HHI for exports more than tripled, from 2,478 to 7,419, indicating that EU exporters increasingly relied on a narrow set of markets (like Switzerland). In contrast, import concentration remained relatively stable (HHI around 4,300), as the EU sourced supplies from an expanding list of countries, including the UK, China, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, and the United States.

2. Supply Chain Diversification and Volatility Risks

As the EU increased its imports, it sourced from a wider but also more volatile set of suppliers, introducing new dynamics and risks into its biodiesel supply chain.

The UK solidified its role as the EU's top import supplier post-Brexit

Paradoxically, while EU exports to the UK collapsed, the UK became the EU's single largest source of imports, growing from €1.9 million in 2015 to €7.1 million in 2025 (a 277.7% increase). This suggests a re-routing of trade flows or increased UK production for the EU market, now that it operates as a third country.

New supplier nations emerged rapidly, introducing high volatility

The data identifies several new or surging suppliers with extremely high growth rates, signaling a volatile market entry. Bosnia and Herzegovina's imports grew by 322 million percent from a base of €2 to €6.4 million. China, Canada, and the United States also became significant suppliers. This rapid diversification is further evidenced by high volatility (coefficient of variation) in import flows from countries like China (CV: 1.65), Malaysia (CV: 1.69), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV: 1.13).

Price shocks highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities

The volatility analysis identified specific, severe shocks. The most extreme was a massive price shock from Malaysia in 2023, where import prices spiked by 595%, flagged with an abnormality score of 17.4. A complete supply shock from Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2020, where imports fell by 100%, and a sharp price hike from the UK in 2017 further underscore the potential instability of the EU's newly diversified import base.

3. Growing but Modest Import Reliance Amidst Domestic Production Growth

Despite the shift towards a net-import position, the EU's reliance on external suppliers for this specific blend remained moderate, supported by a growing domestic production base.

Net import reliance increased but stayed below 5% of domestic apparent consumption

The EU's net import reliance for CN 38260090 grew significantly, rising from 1.8% in 2015 to 4.8% in 2025 (a 162.7% increase). However, this indicates that even at its peak, the vast majority (over 95%) of the biodiesel consumed in the EU in this category was met by domestic production and existing inventories.

EU domestic production volumes and values grew substantially

The underlying strength of the EU's domestic biodiesel industry is evident from production data. EU production quantity grew by 30.5% over the period, while production value increased by 57.3%, reaching approximately €11.9 billion in 2025. This growth in output provided a buffer against import shocks and is a key reason why import reliance remained in the single digits.

The EU's economy became more trade-oriented for this product, with rising export propensity

The broader trend of the EU's economy engaging with global markets in this sector is captured by trade intensity, which measures total trade (imports + exports) as a share of production. It increased from 16.7% to 28.1%. Notably, export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew even faster, from 8.3% to 14.2%, suggesting that EU producers, while facing stiffer competition at home, continued to find international outlets for their output.

Conclusion

The EU's market for biodiesel blends under CN 38260090 between 2015 and 2025 experienced a profound structural shift. The era of strong net exports ended, replaced by a phase of growing net imports. This was driven by a collapse in exports to the post-Brexit UK and a simultaneous, explosive growth in imports from a new constellation of suppliers, most prominently the UK itself, but also nations across Europe and beyond.

This diversification brought new volatility and supply risks, as evidenced by significant price and volume shocks from emerging partners. However, the core resilience of the EU market remained rooted in its substantial and growing domestic production base, which kept net import reliance at a manageable level. The data points to a sector that is more globally integrated and exposed than it was a decade ago, but one where European producers have maintained a dominant position in serving domestic demand while navigating a more complex and competitive international trade landscape. The strategic implication is a growing, albeit still limited, vulnerability to external supply disruptions in this specific biofuel segment.