Market evolution: Artillery weapons (CN 930110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in artillery weapons (Customs code 930110, covering "e.g. guns, howitzers and mortars") with non-EU countries over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market that underwent a profound transformation, transitioning from a period of moderate activity to one characterized by explosive growth, radical shifts in trade partners, and a dramatic swing in the trade balance. The most significant inflection point occurred in 2022, strongly correlated with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, which appears to have reshaped both demand and supply chains for these military goods.

Overview of EU trade in artillery weapons (CN 930110)

1. A Market Transformed: The Unprecedented Surge in Trade Volumes and Values

The decade under review is split into two distinct eras: a pre-2022 period of relative stability and a post-2022 period of extraordinary expansion. The scale of growth in both EU imports and exports is among the most notable findings in this dataset.

1.1 Export Trajectory: From Modest Shipments to Half-Billion Euro Annual Sales

EU exports of artillery weapons saw a staggering increase. Export value grew from €14.9 million in 2015 to a peak of €507.5 million in 2024, representing a growth of 1,730% over the period. While 2025 figures (€272.6 million) show a decrease from the 2024 peak, they remain at historically high levels. Quantities followed a similar, though more volatile, pattern, with export volume in 2025 (1,827 units) being 856% higher than in 2015.

1.2 Import Surge: The Rise of the EU as a Major Buyer

The growth in EU imports was even more dramatic in percentage terms, increasing from €3.0 million in 2015 to €574.9 million in 2025, a rise of over 19,000%. This signifies a fundamental shift, transforming the EU from a net exporter to a significant net importer of these specific weapons systems. Import volume in 2025 (3,500 units) was over 60 times larger than in 2015.

1.3 The Swinging Trade Balance: From Surplus to Deficit

As a direct consequence of these divergent growth paths, the EU's trade balance in artillery weapons swung violently from a €11.9 million surplus in 2015 to a -€302.2 million deficit in 2025. This reversal underscores the fundamental change in the EU's role in this market segment, shifting from a net supplier to a net acquirer.

Data on general trade overview and top partners

2. The Ukraine Conflict as a Pivotal Market Catalyst

The timing and direction of the major shifts in trade flow point directly to the escalation of the war in Ukraine as the primary market driver post-2022. This section analyzes the reorientation of both export and import patterns.

2.1 Exports: Ukraine Becomes the Dominant Destination

The most significant shift in EU export partners is the overwhelming concentration on Ukraine. While exports to Ukraine existed pre-2022, they exploded from €9.5 million in 2021 to €263.5 million in 2022, peaking at €452.5 million in 2024. In 2025, Ukraine still accounted for €250.9 million, or over 92% of total EU artillery exports. This represents a focused effort to supply Ukraine's defense forces.

Conversely, traditional export destinations like Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates saw their shares diminish to near insignificance by 2025.

2.2 Imports: Sourcing from New and Existing Allies

Import patterns also changed radically. The surge in imports was driven by two key factors:

1. Sourcing from Allies: Poland emerged as the dominant EU importer, with its imports rising from €1.2 million in 2015 to €515.7 million in 2025. This likely reflects procurement for national stockpiles and/or for transfer to Ukraine.
2. Major New Supplier: The Republic of Korea became the EU's largest external supplier from 2022 onward, with imports jumping from zero before 2022 to €525.5 million in 2025. This indicates a rapid diversification of supply chains to meet urgent demand.

Data on top partners for imports and exports

3. Market Concentration and Structural Shifts

The rapid scaling of the market led to increased concentration and highlighted the specialized roles of certain EU member states in the production and transfer of these weapons.

3.1 Increased Trade Concentration (HHI)

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports increased significantly, indicating a more concentrated market. The export HHI rose from 3,686 in 2015 to 8,499 in 2025, while the import HHI increased from 4,090 to 8,429. This reflects the dominance of single partners (Ukraine for exports, Korea and Poland for imports).

3.2 Specialization of EU Member States

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows stark specialization:

• Slovakia and Spain exhibited strong positive specialization, indicating they are significant producers/exporters relative to their overall trade.
• Poland, Netherlands, and Finland showed negative specialization, meaning their activity in this sector was primarily as importers or transshippers rather than producers.

The data on top EU reporters confirms Poland's role as the bloc's primary importer (€515.7 million in 2025) and its rise as a major exporter (€96.9 million in 2025), suggesting it may act as a logistics hub. Spain also emerged as a significant exporter (€107.7 million in 2025).

Data on market concentration and specialization

Conclusion

The EU market for artillery weapons (CN 930110) between 2015 and 2025 was characterized by stability followed by a period of dramatic, conflict-driven transformation. The data shows a market that grew exponentially, reversed its trade balance, and saw its partner composition completely reconfigured. The escalation of the war in Ukraine in 2022 was the clear catalyst, turning Ukraine into the EU's primary export destination and triggering a massive import surge to meet demand, sourced increasingly from South Korea and channeled significantly through Poland. This period has fundamentally altered the scale, structure, and strategic orientation of the EU's artillery weapons trade.