Market evolution: Aluminium sheets and plates (CN 760611) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in non-alloy aluminium plates, sheets and strip (Combined Nomenclature code 760611) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers a broad range of flat-rolled semi-finished aluminium goods — from thin strip below 3 mm to heavy plates of 6 mm and above, including coated variants and aluminium composite panels. These materials serve as critical inputs for construction, transport, packaging and general engineering.

The decade under review witnessed a profound structural shift: the EU moved from a position of near self-sufficiency to one of significant import dependence, while its export capacity contracted sharply. Production volumes within the Union fell by nearly three-quarters, and the geographic profile of suppliers was substantially reshaped. This report examines these dynamics across three main dimensions — the collapse of domestic production and export capacity, the reorientation of supply sources, and the price, concentration and shock dynamics that accompanied these changes.

Overview data on the Trade Dashboard

1. From Self-Sufficiency to Import Dependence: The Collapse of EU Production and Exports

EU production of flat-rolled non-alloy aluminium declined by nearly three-quarters

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the contraction of EU domestic production. Output of CN 760611 products fell from 1,722 million kg (approximately 1.72 million tonnes) in 2015 to just 440 million kg (440,000 tonnes) by 2025 — a decline of 74.4% in volume terms. Production value dropped from €3,025 million to €1,120 million (−63.0%), meaning that rising unit prices partially cushioned the revenue decline but could not offset the loss of physical output.

Production volumes on the Trade Dashboard

EU exports fell by more than half, with Germany accounting for most of the decline

EU extra-EU exports of CN 760611 dropped from €356.3 million (63,074 tonnes) in 2015 to €150.3 million (27,815 tonnes) in 2025 — a fall of 57.8% in value and 55.9% in volume. Germany, which dominated EU exports with €236.3 million in 2015 (representing roughly two-thirds of total EU export value), saw its shipments collapse to €56.7 million by 2025 (−76.0%). Italy, the second-largest exporter, halved from €59.2 million to €29.5 million. Poland was a notable exception, growing from €3.3 million to €14.2 million (+328.8%), but this was far from sufficient to compensate the broader decline.

EU exporters by Member State

The EU swung from marginal net exporter to substantial net importer

The combined effect of shrinking production and falling exports was a dramatic shift in the EU's trade position. The net import reliance moved from −5.8% in 2015 (meaning the EU was a slight net exporter) to +31.3% in 2025, peaking at 36.7% along the way. The trade balance in value terms widened from −€386.5 million (deficit) in 2015 to −€715.2 million in 2025, having deteriorated to as much as −€872.1 million at its worst point.

The fact that import volumes declined by 13.0% while the trade deficit nearly doubled underscores the scale of the export collapse: the EU's reduced capacity to ship product abroad was not matched by a proportional reduction in its own purchases.

Trade intensity increased markedly, reflecting the economy's growing reliance on external supply

The trade intensity of CN 760611 rose from 39.0% in 2015 to 58.7% in 2025, indicating that a much larger share of the aluminium sheet and plate consumed in the EU now crosses an external border. Export propensity, by contrast, remained broadly stable at around 26–28%, confirming that the shift was driven primarily by the growth of imports relative to domestic supply rather than by any surge in outward shipments.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Türkiye's Rise, China's Retreat, and the Diversification of EU Supply

Türkiye became the EU's dominant supplier, while Chinese imports collapsed

The most dramatic geographic shift in EU imports of CN 760611 was the rise of Türkiye and the decline of China. Turkish imports surged from €142.8 million in 2015 to €381.4 million in 2025 (+167.1%), making Türkiye by far the EU's largest single supplier. Over the same period, Chinese imports fell from €190.1 million to €48.4 million (−74.5%).

EU import partners

The decline in Chinese imports can be linked to the EU's imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on certain Chinese aluminium flat-rolled products, which took effect from 2021 onward. The fall was steep: from a peak of €235.2 million (in an intermediate year) down to below €40 million at its trough. Meanwhile, Türkiye's customs union with the EU, its proximity, and its growing smelting and rolling capacity positioned it to fill much of the resulting gap.

Egypt and Serbia emerged as fast-growing suppliers

Beyond the two largest shifts, Egypt and Serbia stand out. Egyptian imports grew from €32.7 million to €95.9 million (+193.5%), reflecting Egypt's investment in aluminium rolling capacity (linked to the Egyptian Aluminium Company — Egyptalume). Serbian imports more than doubled from €16.6 million to €30.7 million (+85.0%), consistent with Serbia's integration into EU manufacturing supply chains as an EU candidate country.

The United Kingdom's role diminished on both sides of the trade flow

The UK was the EU's largest export destination (€46.2 million in 2015) and a major import source (€185.7 million). By 2025, UK-sourced imports had fallen to €113.2 million (−39.1%) and EU exports to the UK to €22.4 million (−51.5%). This bilateral contraction is consistent with the trade friction introduced by Brexit, which created customs barriers and rules-of-origin requirements that discouraged intra-European aluminium supply chains from spanning the Channel.

Import concentration increased while export markets became more diffuse

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 1,948 to 2,683 (+37.7%), moving the import side from a moderately concentrated structure to a more consolidated one — largely driven by Türkiye's growing share. Export concentration, conversely, fell from an HHI of 1,157 to 796 (−31.2%), reflecting the erosion of Germany's formerly dominant position and a more even spread across smaller destinations.

Within the EU, import demand shifted toward Germany, Italy and Poland

On the importing side of EU Member States, Germany (€84.5M → €167.6M, +98.3%), Italy (€76.3M → €143.4M, +87.8%) and especially Poland (€26.5M → €83.4M, +214.2%) saw large increases, reflecting the concentration of downstream aluminium-consuming industries (automotive, construction, packaging) in these economies. Conversely, France (€118.9M → €33.0M, −72.2%) and Greece (€136.1M → €5.8M, −95.8%) saw steep declines — Greece's case likely reflecting the loss of a major domestic rolling operation.

3. Price Swings, Supply Shocks and the Thick-Plate Import Collapse

Import prices rose strongly, driven by energy costs and supply tightness

Average EU import prices for CN 760611 climbed from €2,413/t in 2015 to €3,233/t in 2025 (+34.0%), peaking at €4,173/t during the 2022 energy crisis. Export prices were consistently higher (reflecting value-added processing), moving from €5,648/t to €5,400/t (−4.4%) — a modest decline that masks considerable volatility, with a trough of €3,658/t and a peak of €5,787/t.

The spread between export and import prices narrowed over the period, suggesting that the EU's competitive advantage in higher-value segments eroded somewhat. The price spike of 2022, visible in both flows, was driven by the surge in European energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which disproportionately affected aluminium smelting and rolling (both highly electricity-intensive).

Thick plates (≥ 6 mm) suffered the sharpest volume collapse in imports

The product segment breakdown reveals that the decline in EU imports was concentrated in the thickest product category. Subheading 76061199 (plates ≥ 6 mm) saw imports fall from 135,402 tonnes in 2015 to just 50,108 tonnes in 2025 (−63.0% in volume). This segment also experienced the most volatile pricing, with import prices swinging from €1,981/t to €3,859/t over the period.

By contrast, thin sheet and strip (76061191, < 3 mm) — the largest segment by volume — grew from 144,627 tonnes to 176,243 tonnes (+21.9%), confirming that demand for this core product remained robust. The two subheadings for composite panels and coated products (76061130 and 76061150) only appear from 2022 onward, reflecting a reclassification or refinement of reporting rather than genuinely new trade flows.

Price shocks were detected in EU exports to Canada, Mexico and Russia

The shock detection analysis identified three notable price anomalies in EU exports. The most significant was a price shock to Canada in 2022, with an abnormality score of 17.8 and a year-on-year price shift of +31.3%. A similar shock to Mexico in the same year showed a +51.2% price jump (abnormality 10.2). These are consistent with the global aluminium price surge of 2022 combined with EU-specific energy-cost pass-through. An earlier shock to Russia in 2021 (+23.6%, abnormality 7.6) may reflect anticipatory trade disruptions ahead of the sanctions regime.

On the import side, Norway stood out as the most stable supplier (coefficient of variation just 0.078), consistent with its role as a long-term, proximate and politically reliable source. China (CV 0.758), the UK (CV 0.414) and Egypt (CV 0.489) were considerably more volatile, while emerging suppliers such as Indonesia (CV 1.26) and Viet Nam (CV 2.87) showed extreme fluctuations — likely reflecting episodic, small-volume transactions rather than established supply relationships.

Export specialisation shifted within the EU, with smaller Member States gaining relative advantage

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that Croatia (RSCA 0.84), Luxembourg (0.77), Slovenia (0.53), Austria (0.52) and Sweden (0.36) were the most specialised EU exporters of CN 760611 products relative to their overall trade profiles. These are generally smaller economies with specific industrial niches in aluminium processing. The large traditional producers — Germany, Italy, France — while still dominant in absolute terms, saw their relative specialisation diminish in line with their declining export volumes.

Conclusion

The period 2015–2025 marked a structural transformation of the EU's position in the global market for non-alloy aluminium flat-rolled products. Domestic production fell by nearly three-quarters, exports more than halved, and the EU shifted from marginal net exporter to a net importer relying on external sources for nearly a third of its consumption. This shift was not primarily driven by a surge in import demand but by the collapse of EU production and export capacity — likely reflecting high European energy costs, tightening environmental regulation, and the competitive pressure of lower-cost producers abroad.

The geographic reconfiguration of supply was equally significant. Türkiye emerged as the dominant supplier, more than doubling its shipments to the EU, while China's share was decimated — a pattern strongly suggestive of the impact of EU trade defence measures. Norway remained a stable anchor supplier, and new sources such as Egypt and Serbia gained ground. Within the EU, the industrial geography of demand shifted toward Germany, Italy and Poland, while traditional hubs like France and Greece saw their import volumes shrink dramatically.

The market remains subject to considerable price volatility, particularly in thicker plate segments and during periods of energy-cost stress. The 2022 energy crisis left a clear mark on both import and export prices. Going forward, the EU's growing import dependence, combined with increased supplier concentration on the import side, raises questions about supply security in a product category that is strategically important for construction, transport and defence applications.