Market evolution: Women's light outerwear (CN 62024010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in light women's and girls' outerwear of man-made fibres (CN 62024010) — a product category encompassing overcoats, anoraks, ski jackets, wind-cheaters and similar articles weighing no more than 1 kg per garment. The available data covers four complete years from 2022 to 2025, providing a focused lens on a period shaped by post-pandemic supply-chain restructuring, geopolitical tensions, and shifting consumer demand. Over this relatively short window, the EU market has undergone a pronounced transformation: import values have fallen sharply while export unit values have surged, the geographic composition of suppliers has diversified significantly, and the EU's net import reliance has narrowed from 81.5% to 67.4%. These dynamics point to a European apparel sector that is simultaneously importing fewer garments and exporting higher-value ones — a structural shift that warrants close examination.

All data refer to EU trade with non-EU countries. Source figures and visualisations can be accessed via the Overview dashboard.

1. Declining Import Volumes but Rising Export Values: A Tale of Two Price Trajectories

The most striking feature of the 2022–2025 period is the divergence between import and export dynamics. While the EU's imports contracted across the board, its export performance gained strength — not through higher volumes, but through dramatically higher unit values.

EU imports fell in both volume and value, signalling softer domestic demand and cost pressures

Between 2022 and 2025, EU imports of CN 62024010 declined from €3.09 billion to €2.36 billion (−23.7% in value). The tonnage imported dropped more moderately, from 111,074 tonnes to 99,676 tonnes (−10.3%), while the number of garments imported fell from approximately 198.5 million pieces to 169.1 million (−14.8%). Importantly, the import price per tonne also declined, from €27,846 to €23,682 (−15.0%), and the price per piece fell from €15.58 to €13.96 (−10.4%). This combination of lower volumes and lower unit prices suggests a market under pressure — likely reflecting both dampened consumer spending in several EU economies (amid inflation and cost-of-living concerns) and intensifying price competition among Asian suppliers. A notable minimum of €2.27 billion in import value was recorded during the period, indicating that 2025 was close to the trough.

EU exports gained value despite falling volumes, reflecting a premium-product shift

In contrast, EU exports to non-EU countries rose from €1.04 billion to €1.22 billion (+16.9% in value), even as the number of exported garments dropped from 18.6 million pieces to 15.2 million (−18.5%) and the tonnage shipped declined from 10,303 tonnes to 9,073 tonnes (−11.9%). The explanation lies in a spectacular increase in export unit values: the price per tonne rose from €101,075 to €134,107 (+32.7%), and the price per piece jumped from €55.95 to €80.18 (+43.3%). This indicates that European manufacturers and re-exporters are increasingly concentrating on higher-quality, premium-positioned garments — a strategy that compensates for volume losses with significantly richer margins.

The trade deficit narrowed substantially

The net result of these opposing trajectories was a sharp improvement in the EU's trade balance for this product. The deficit shrank from −€2.05 billion in 2022 to −€1.14 billion in 2025, an improvement of 44.2%. While the EU remains a net importer, the gap is closing, and the ratio of import value to export value has shifted from roughly 3:1 to under 2:1 — a meaningful rebalancing.

Source: Trade overview

2. Supply-Chain Diversification: China's Retreat and Cambodia's Rapid Ascent

Beneath the headline aggregates, the geographic composition of the EU's imports has shifted dramatically. The period 2022–2025 saw a significant erosion of China's dominance and a notable rise of Southeast Asian suppliers, reshaping the risk profile of the EU's sourcing landscape.

China's share declined sharply, though it remains the single largest supplier

China was the EU's largest source of CN 62024010 imports in both 2022 and 2025, but its share contracted dramatically: import value fell from €1.68 billion to €1.07 billion, a decline of 36.4%. The minimum value recorded during the period was €1.04 billion. This decline reflects a combination of factors, including rising Chinese labour costs, the EU's increasing scrutiny of Xinjiang-related supply chains, the broader "China plus one" sourcing strategy adopted by many European brands, and geopolitical tensions.

Cambodia surged while Myanmar collapsed

The most dramatic movement among individual partners was Cambodia's extraordinary growth: EU imports from Cambodia rose from €59 million to €149 million, an increase of 151.8%. Cambodia thus moved from a marginal supplier to a significant one, benefiting from preferential market access (Everything But Arms) and active brand diversification strategies. Conversely, Myanmar — previously the EU's second-largest supplier at €477 million — saw its imports halve to €251 million (−47.5%), likely reflecting the EU's trade restrictions and sanctions following the 2021 military coup.

Bangladesh and Vietnam held relatively stable, while Türkiye and Morocco remained marginal

Bangladesh (+5.4%, from €266M to €280M) and Vietnam (−4.1%, from €323M to €310M) showed broadly stable trajectories, maintaining their positions as important but secondary suppliers. Türkiye (+13.7%, from €27M to €30M) and Morocco (−0.8%, from €35M to €35M) contributed modestly and consistently, likely serving niche or nearshoring needs.

Source: Partners

Import concentration fell, but Cambodia's high volatility introduces new risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value dropped from 3,383 to 2,539 (−24.9%), confirming that the EU's sourcing is becoming meaningfully less concentrated. This is a positive development for supply-chain resilience. However, volatility analysis reveals a caveat: Cambodia — the fastest-growing supplier — exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (CV = 0.58) among the top partners, followed by Indonesia (0.46) and Türkiye (0.34). Vietnam, by contrast, showed remarkably stable flows (CV = 0.06). The diversification toward newer, smaller suppliers thus introduces a degree of supply-side unpredictability that buyers will need to manage.

Source: Concentration and Volatility

3. Italy Leads an Export-Oriented EU Industry with Growing Specialisation

The EU's internal structure for this product reveals an industry that is increasingly concentrated in Southern and Central Europe for exports, while Northern member states dominate specialised production. Italy, in particular, has emerged as the undisputed European champion.

Italy's export dominance intensified dramatically

Italy's exports of CN 62024010 to non-EU countries surged from €464 million to €650 million (+39.9%), making it by far the largest EU exporter — accounting for more than half of total EU export value by 2025. France also posted strong growth (+22.4%, from €81M to €99M), while Germany remained broadly stable (−2.2%, from €211M to €206M). Spain, however, experienced a significant decline (−30.3%, from €109M to €76M). On the import side, all major EU member states recorded declines, with Germany (−33.3%), Belgium (−49.7%), and France (−27.2%) seeing the steepest falls — consistent with weaker domestic consumption and possibly a greater preference for locally produced or higher-value garments.

Switzerland and the UK remain the top export destinations, but Ukraine surged

Switzerland (−4.5%, €231M) and the United Kingdom (−10.6%, €95M) continued to anchor EU exports, benefiting from geographic proximity and integrated supply chains. The most remarkable growth, however, was registered with Ukraine (+82.2%, from €17M to €30M), likely reflecting humanitarian and commercial demand amid the ongoing conflict. Norway saw a sharp decline (−40.7%, from €37M to €22M), while exports to the Russian Federation were broadly flat (+1.7%, €45M), suggesting continued trade flows despite the geopolitical context.

EU production remained remarkably stable, underpinning a resilience narrative

Estimated EU domestic production of this product category was remarkably stable over the period: volume held at approximately 13.7–13.9 million pieces, and production value remained in the range of €581–600 million (declining only −1.4% and −3.1% respectively). This stability — against a backdrop of declining imports — implies that the EU is producing a roughly constant volume while the import-to-production ratio is falling. Combined with the rising export unit values, this paints a picture of a European manufacturing base that is holding its ground and moving upmarket.

Denmark, Poland and Romania lead in revealed comparative advantage

Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that Denmark (RSCA = 0.43), Poland (0.39), Romania (0.33), Spain (0.27) and Italy (0.19) are the most specialised EU member states in this product. Poland and Italy together account for over a quarter of EU production in this category (15.1% and 11.7% respectively). By contrast, Malta, Ireland, Cyprus, Finland and Hungary show negative RSCA scores, indicating negligible specialisation. This pattern is consistent with the well-known geography of European apparel manufacturing, concentrated in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe.

Source: Reporters and Specialisation

Conclusion

Over the 2022–2025 period, the EU market for women's light outerwear (CN 62024010) has undergone a clear structural transformation. Three dynamics stand out:

1. A value-over-volume strategy on the export side: European exporters are shipping fewer garments but commanding significantly higher prices — a 43% increase in unit export value over four years — suggesting a successful move upmarket. Italy, the sector's powerhouse, accounted for more than half of all EU exports by 2025.

2. A diversifying but still import-dependent supply base: While the EU's net import reliance fell from 81.5% to 67.4% (as measured by the net import reliance metric), the bloc remains heavily dependent on extra-EU sourcing. China's share fell by over a third, but it remains the dominant supplier. The rise of Cambodia — while welcome for diversification — introduces higher supply volatility. The export propensity reaching 488% confirms that the EU's production is strongly outward-oriented.

3. Resilient domestic production: EU manufacturing volumes have been essentially flat, declining only 1.4% — a performance that, in the context of falling imports, suggests a modest recovery in the domestic production-to-consumption ratio. Combined with the high specialisation of Denmark, Poland, Romania, Spain and Italy, the European apparel industry appears to be consolidating around its comparative advantages.

Looking ahead, the key variables to watch include the pace of China's continued market-share erosion, whether Cambodia and other emerging suppliers can stabilise their export flows, and whether the premiumisation trend in EU exports can be sustained in an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.