Market evolution: Women's cotton blouses (CN 610610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in women's or girls' cotton blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses that are knitted or crocheted (Combined Nomenclature code 610610) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a major net importer of this product category, and the decade under review was marked by several overlapping structural forces: a sustained contraction of domestic production, a reshaping of global sourcing, a sharp repricing of traded volumes, and the after-effects of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 commodity-price shock. The trade deficit narrowed from €290 million in 2015 to €192 million in 2025 (a 33.6 % improvement), yet this headline figure masks a far more turbulent story of collapsing volumes, surging unit values, and deepening dependence on a smaller circle of overseas suppliers.

1. Declining volumes, surging unit values: a structural repricing of EU trade

EU import volumes shrank while values held up

Over the period, EU imports of CN 610610 declined from €390 million (23,034 tonnes, 116.5 million pieces) in 2015 to €318 million (17,415 tonnes, 88.1 million pieces) in 2025. That represents an 18.6 % drop in value and a 24.4 % drop in mass. However, import unit values actually rose moderately: the per-tonne price increased from €16,940 to €18,225 (+7.6 %), and the per-piece price edged up from €3.35 to €3.60 (+7.5 %). This suggests that the EU is importing fewer garments but at marginally higher prices, consistent with a shift toward higher-quality or higher-priced sourcing.

EU export values surged despite collapsing volumes

The picture on the export side is strikingly different. Total EU extra-EU exports rose from €100 million in 2015 to €125 million in 2025 (+24.6 %), yet mass fell from 2,376 tonnes to 1,677 tonnes (−29.4 %) and piece-count dropped from 13.1 million to 7.8 million pieces (−40.4 %). The resulting repricing was dramatic: the export unit value per tonne climbed from €42,268 to €74,567 (+76.4 %), and the per-piece price more than doubled from €7.70 to €16.09 (+109.0 %). EU exporters of women's cotton knitted blouses are therefore shipping significantly fewer items at substantially higher average prices — a pattern consistent with a move upmarket toward premium or niche products.

The trade deficit narrowed on the back of price dynamics

The EU's merchandise trade deficit in CN 610610 narrowed from €290 million to €192 million. This improvement was driven less by an expansion of exports in real terms than by a combination of (i) falling import volumes and (ii) a faster rise in export unit values relative to import unit values. In essence, the EU is importing fewer cheap blouses and exporting fewer but far more expensive ones.

2. A reshaped sourcing map: Bangladesh consolidates, traditional suppliers recede

Bangladesh became the unchallenged leader among EU suppliers

Among partner countries, Bangladesh emerged as the dominant supplier. EU imports from Bangladesh grew from €112.6 million in 2015 to €125.1 million in 2025 (+11.0 %), even as total EU imports shrank. Bangladesh's share of extra-EU imports therefore rose from roughly 29 % to approximately 39 %. The country also exhibited the lowest volatility among major suppliers, with a coefficient of variation of just 0.13 — the most stable sourcing relationship in the dataset.

China, Türkiye, India, and the United Kingdom all retreated sharply

By contrast, several formerly important suppliers experienced steep declines:

The United Kingdom's collapse is particularly notable: EU imports from the UK fell by 79 %, from €23.7 million to €5.0 million. This is almost certainly a consequence of Brexit, which removed the UK from the EU customs union and single market as of January 2021. Türkiye and India — long-standing low-cost suppliers to the EU garment industry — also contracted, likely reflecting broader competitive pressures from Bangladesh and other South/Southeast Asian producers, as well as currency and cost dynamics.

Viet Nam stands out as a growth supplier (+38.1 %), albeit from a small base, potentially benefiting from the EU–Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (in effect since August 2020) and from broader "China-plus-one" diversification strategies.

Import concentration intensified; export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by partner country rose from 1,685 to 2,183 (+29.6 %), indicating a meaningful increase in sourcing concentration. As China, Türkiye, and India each lost share, Bangladesh's dominant and growing position pushed the index upward. The volume-based HHI confirms the same trend, rising from 1,997 to 2,712.

On the export side, the HHI fell sharply from 1,305 to 718 (−45.0 %), meaning EU exports became much more diversified across destination markets. Key shifts among export partners include:

The United Kingdom remained the largest single export destination but lost ground significantly — again, a Brexit effect. Meanwhile, the United States nearly doubled as an export market, and Ukraine grew almost threefold, partly reflecting EU integration dynamics and geopolitical factors.

3. Hollowing out of EU production and growing structural vulnerability

EU domestic production collapsed

The most dramatic structural development in this product category is the collapse of EU production. Output fell from 132.5 million pieces (€648 million) in 2015 to just 32.9 million pieces (€371 million) in 2025 — a staggering decline of 75.2 % in volume and 42.8 % in value. The per-piece production value roughly doubled (from €4.89 to €11.28), suggesting that what remains of EU manufacturing is increasingly concentrated in higher-value segments, but the sheer scale of the volume contraction signals a fundamental de-industrialisation of this product line within the EU.

Net import reliance more than doubled

As a direct consequence of shrinking domestic output, the EU's net import reliance for CN 610610 surged from 19.6 % in 2015 to 53.8 % in 2025 — more than doubling, and peaking at 64.7 % at an intermediate point. This metric, which captures the share of domestic consumption satisfied by extra-EU net imports, underscores how dependent the EU has become on overseas suppliers for women's cotton knitted blouses.

Trade intensity (the combined import-plus-export share of apparent consumption) rose from 62.0 % to 87.4 %, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) climbed from 38.2 % to 64.5 %. In other words, the remaining EU producers have become far more export-oriented even as the overall production base has shrunk — a pattern consistent with the survival of premium, niche, or fast-fashion-linked manufacturers while mass-market production has migrated offshore.

The 2022 supply-side price shock highlighted sourcing fragility

Volatility analysis reveals that the most significant shock events clustered around 2022 — a year marked by post-COVID logistics disruptions, surging cotton and energy prices, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict:

Bangladesh — accounting for nearly 45 % of import value — registered the most extreme price anomaly (abnormality score of 12.4), followed by India and China. These were not isolated micro-shocks: they affected the three largest non-EU supplier countries simultaneously and at a time when the EU was already heavily dependent on imports. The convergence of these price spikes helps explain why EU import unit values rose despite falling volumes.

Looking at volatility more broadly, the coefficient of variation for most major import partners was moderate (0.13–0.55), but the United Kingdom (CV = 1.14) and Egypt (CV = 2.10) displayed very high instability — the former driven by Brexit-induced trade disruption, the latter likely by episodic volumes from a marginal supplier.

Intra-EU winners and losers emerge

Among EU Member States, the pattern is one of divergence:

Italy stands out as a clear winner: despite cutting its imports nearly in half, it almost doubled its extra-EU exports — rising from €19.5 million to €37.1 million — to become the EU's single largest exporter of this product. France and the Netherlands also expanded exports significantly. Poland's extraordinary import growth (+166 %) and export growth (+135 %) suggest it has emerged as a re-export or nearshoring hub. By contrast, Spain's exports collapsed by two-thirds, and Greece's trade contracted on both sides.

In terms of specialisation, Greece (RSCA = 0.77, RCA = 7.63) and Bulgaria (RSCA = 0.67, RCA = 5.05) display the strongest revealed comparative advantage in CN 610610, while Ireland, Malta, and Luxembourg show near-zero specialisation — consistent with these latter economies' minimal involvement in textile manufacturing.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU market for women's cotton knitted blouses (CN 610610) underwent a profound structural transformation. Domestic production fell by three-quarters in volume, the trade deficit narrowed but only because export unit values doubled while volumes shrank, and the EU became dramatically more import-dependent — with net import reliance rising from 20 % to 54 %. Sourcing concentrated around Bangladesh, which grew to account for nearly 40 % of imports in value, while China, Türkiye, India, and the UK all retreated. The 2022 price shock across all major suppliers exposed the vulnerability of this concentrated sourcing model. Within the EU, Italy emerged as the bloc's leading exporter by pivoting toward higher-value production, while Poland grew as a new trade hub. The overall picture is one of an industry moving upmarket in its EU production footprint while outsourcing mass-market volume to an increasingly narrow — and therefore increasingly fragile — set of low-cost suppliers.