Market evolution: Window air conditioners (CN 841510) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of combined nomenclature code 841510 — air conditioning machines designed to be fixed to a window, wall, ceiling or floor, whether self-contained (CN 84151010) or "split-system" (CN 84151090) — for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market that has been fundamentally transformed by surging demand, deepening import dependence, and a pronounced geographic reorientation of sourcing. EU imports more than tripled in value over the decade, far outpacing the growth of exports, widening the trade deficit to over €2.6 billion by 2025. At the same time, EU domestic production adapted, with unit output more than doubling even as production value grew more modestly, suggesting a market under significant cost and competitive pressure.
A Market Defined by Surging Demand and a Widening Deficit
The most striking feature of the EU air conditioning market over 2015–2025 is the sheer scale of import growth, which vastly outpaced both domestic production growth and export expansion. The EU's trade balance deteriorated dramatically, shifting from a deficit of approximately €685 million in 2015 to over €2.67 billion in 2025.
Imports tripled in value while unit prices fell
EU imports from non-EU countries grew from €811 million (103,450 tonnes) in 2015 to €2,944 million (393,446 tonnes) in 2025, representing increases of +263% in value and +280% in volume. Notably, the average import price actually declined slightly over the period, from €7,840/t to €7,482/t (−4.6%), indicating that the volume increase was not driven by price inflation but by a genuine surge in physical demand and increasingly competitive sourcing.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 811 | 2,944 | +263% |
| Import quantity (t) | 103,450 | 393,446 | +280% |
| Import price (€/t) | 7,840 | 7,482 | −4.6% |
| Export value (€M) | 127 | 277 | +119% |
| Export quantity (t) | 9,400 | 15,641 | +66% |
| Export price (€/t) | 13,459 | 17,701 | +31.5% |
| Trade balance (€M) | −685 | −2,667 | −290% |
Exports grew selectively, but could not keep pace
EU exports to non-EU countries more than doubled in value (+119%) and rose by 66% in volume, reaching €277 million and 15,641 tonnes by 2025. However, the export price increased significantly from €13,459/t to €17,701/t (+31.5%), suggesting that the EU's export niche lies in higher-value or more specialised units. The modest volume growth compared to imports confirms that the EU is a structurally net-importing region for this product category.
The split-system segment drives nearly all import growth
A segment breakdown reveals that split-system units (CN 84151090) account for the overwhelming majority of import volumes and their growth:
| Sub-product | Import qty 2015 (t) | Import qty 2025 (t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Split-system (84151090) | 96,003 | 371,209 | +287% |
| Self-contained (84151010) | 7,447 | 22,236 | +199% |
Split-systems represented 94% of import volume in 2025, up from 93% in 2015. The self-contained segment also grew substantially but remained a much smaller share of the market. On the export side, both sub-products contributed more evenly: split-system exports reached 8,475 tonnes (+66%) and self-contained exports reached 7,165 tonnes (+67%). The price premium on self-contained exports rose steeply (from €13,943/t to €21,457/t, +54%), suggesting a shift toward higher-value niche products.
Geographic Concentration and the Rise of New Sourcing Hubs
The EU's import sourcing landscape underwent significant geographic shifts between 2015 and 2025, characterised by the continued dominance of China, the rise of Türkiye as a major supplier, and the relative decline of some traditional partners.
China consolidated its dominance
China was the EU's largest supplier throughout the period, with imports growing from €514 million to €2,272 million (+342%). China's share of total EU imports rose from approximately 63% in 2015 to 77% in 2025. This concentration is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value, which rose from 4,477 to 6,164 (+37.7%), indicating a moderately concentrated and increasingly more concentrated sourcing structure.
Türkiye emerged as the fastest-growing supplier
The most dramatic growth came from Türkiye, where EU imports surged from just €0.6 million in 2015 to €133 million in 2025 — a staggering +23,618% increase. This growth reflects the expansion of Turkish manufacturing capacity in white goods and HVAC equipment, partly driven by its customs union with the EU and competitive labour costs. Thailand also grew strongly (+143%, from €164 million to €400 million), while South Korea maintained its position at €42 million (+106%).
| Partner | Import value 2015 (€M) | Import value 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 514 | 2,272 | +342% |
| Thailand | 164 | 400 | +143% |
| Türkiye | 0.6 | 133 | +23,618% |
| South Korea | 21 | 42 | +106% |
| Malaysia | 29 | 21 | −27% |
| Japan | 34 | 31 | −8% |
| United Kingdom | 30 | 17 | −44% |
The United Kingdom's decline as an import source (−44%) likely reflects post-Brexit trade frictions and changes in statistical recording. Malaysia and Japan also saw declining shares, with high volatility: Malaysia showed the highest coefficient of variation (CV) among import partners at 0.97, indicating highly unstable year-to-year trade flows.
EU exports diversified toward Western Balkans and the United States
On the export side, the EU's main destinations were Norway (€24M), Switzerland (€35M), the United Kingdom (€42M), and the United States (€26M). The most notable growth was in exports to the United States (+1,115%), Serbia (+476%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (+767%), and Albania (+332%). The Western Balkans countries collectively represent a significant and growing export market for EU-manufactured air conditioning units. The export concentration remained low (HHI of 703 in 2025), indicating a diversified export base.
Southern and Eastern EU Member States absorbed the import surge
Within the EU, Italy was the largest importer (€645M in 2025, +131%) and exporter (€82M, +128%). However, the fastest import growth was recorded in Spain (+656%, from €59M to €443M), Bulgaria (+743%, from €24M to €200M), the Netherlands (+621%, from €28M to €202M), and Greece (+568%, from €33M to €222M). These patterns strongly correlate with rising temperatures, increasing cooling demand in Southern Europe, and the expansion of logistics hubs in the Netherlands.
Domestic Production, Vulnerability, and Structural Shifts
Behind the headline trade figures lies a story of EU production adapting — but not fast enough — to meet rapidly growing demand, leading to a near-doubling of import dependence.
EU production volume surged but value lagged
EU production volumes grew from approximately 1.08 million units in 2015 to 2.50 million units in 2025 (+131%). Production value also increased, but far more modestly, from €1.01 billion to €1.14 billion (+13.3%). The divergence between unit growth and value growth implies a significant decline in the average unit value of EU-produced air conditioning machines, suggesting that domestic manufacturers increasingly compete on price or that the product mix has shifted toward lower-cost models. At its peak, EU production reached 3.86 million units (in an intermediate year), indicating substantial volatility in output.
Import reliance nearly doubled
The net import reliance — the share of apparent consumption met by net imports — rose from 34.1% in 2015 to 67.2% in 2025 (+97.3%), peaking at 70.8% in an intermediate year. This means that by 2025, more than two-thirds of the air conditioning units consumed in the EU were sourced from outside the bloc. The trade intensity (trade as a share of production) reached 76.8%, and the export propensity (exports as a share of production) doubled from 11.2% to 23.8%, suggesting that while the EU is increasingly integrated into global trade for this product, its role remains that of a net importer rather than a competitive exporter.
Specialisation is concentrated in smaller Member States
An analysis of revealed comparative advantage shows that the most specialised EU exporters of CN 841510 in 2025 were Croatia (RSCA: 0.74), Estonia (0.72), Greece (0.70), Slovenia (0.63), and Lithuania (0.47). These are smaller economies where air conditioning exports represent a relatively large share of their total trade. Conversely, the largest economies — Germany (RSCA: −0.50), Sweden (−0.58), Austria (−0.62), Ireland (−0.74), and Luxembourg (−0.92) — showed negative specialisation, meaning they are net importers relative to their overall trade profiles. Germany, despite accounting for 21% of total EU trade in this product, had an RCA of only 0.34, underscoring its role as a demand centre rather than a production hub for this category.
Conclusion
The EU market for window and split-system air conditioning machines (CN 841510) experienced transformative growth over 2015–2025, driven by rising demand for cooling across Southern and Eastern Europe and broader climate adaptation trends. Import volumes nearly quadrupled while import prices held steady or declined, reflecting the cost competitiveness of Asian — principally Chinese — manufacturing. The trade deficit widened to €2.7 billion, and net import reliance reached 67%, raising questions about strategic supply-chain vulnerability. While EU domestic production more than doubled in unit terms, its value growth lagged significantly, pointing to margin compression. The emergence of Türkiye as a major new supplier and the growth of exports to the Western Balkans and the United States indicate a shifting geographic landscape. Looking ahead, the concentration of import sourcing in China (77% by value) and the rising HHI suggest that any disruption — whether from trade policy changes, supply chain shocks, or geopolitical tensions — could have material consequences for the EU's ability to meet its growing cooling needs.