Market evolution: Air conditioner parts (CN 841590) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in parts for air conditioning machines (Combined Nomenclature code 841590) over the period 2015–2025. This product category covers components such as condensers, evaporators, absorbers, generators, and other parts not elsewhere specified for air conditioning systems that combine a motor-driven fan with elements for changing temperature and humidity. The EU market for these parts has undergone a profound structural transformation over the decade: while EU production and export values have grown, imports have surged far more rapidly, turning the Union from a net exporter into a significant net importer. The analysis draws on trade flow data, concentration indices, specialisation measures, and volatility indicators to characterise these shifts.

The overall scope and product definition is available on the Trade Dashboard.

1. A Structural Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the complete inversion of the EU's trade balance in air conditioner parts. In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of €217.5 million; by 2025, this had become a deficit of €1,532.9 million. Net import reliance shifted from −10.1% (indicating a net export position) to +23.5%, a swing of over 330 percentage points.

1.1 Imports grew more than threefold in value and volume

EU imports of CN 841590 parts expanded dramatically over the decade:

The near-identical growth rates in value (+215%) and volume (+219%) indicate that the import surge was overwhelmingly a quantity-driven phenomenon. Unit import prices remained remarkably stable over the entire period, fluctuating within a narrow band (min €11,558/t, max €13,482/t). This suggests that import growth was not driven by inflationary price pressures but by a genuine and sustained increase in the physical volume of parts sourced from outside the EU.

Detailed import trends are available here.

1.2 Asia dominated import growth, with Türkiye emerging as a major supplier

The import surge was driven primarily by a handful of extra-EU partners. The following table shows import values from the top seven partners in 2015 and 2025:

The most dramatic shift has been the rise of China and Thailand as the dominant suppliers, each more than tripling their export volumes to the EU. Türkiye recorded the most explosive proportional growth (+1,605%), rising from a marginal supplier to the third-largest extra-EU source. This likely reflects the relocation of manufacturing capacity to Türkiye, which benefits from its customs union with the EU, geographic proximity, and competitive labour costs.

Conversely, South Korea saw a decline of 32.7%, while Japan was essentially flat (+3.8%). These two countries, historically important suppliers of high-value HVAC components, appear to have lost market share to lower-cost Asian producers — or may have shifted final assembly closer to the EU market.

Partner-level import trends are available here.

1.3 EU-wide import growth was broad-based across Member States

The import surge was not concentrated in a single Member State but was spread across the Union's largest economies:

Italy and Spain more than quadrupled their imports, consistent with strong demand growth for air conditioning in Southern Europe driven by rising temperatures and tightening energy-efficiency regulations. Poland stands out with an increase of nearly 856%, likely reflecting both growing domestic demand and its role as a re-export or assembly hub within Central Europe. Czechia was the only top importer to see a slight decline.

Member State-level import data is available here.

2. Export Value Growth Hides a Volume Decline — The Pricing Paradox

While the EU's import story is one of volume-driven expansion, the export picture is far more nuanced. Export value grew by 36.5% over the decade, but this masks a 29.1% decline in export volume and a near-doubling of export unit prices.

2.1 EU exports shifted toward higher-value, lower-volume product mixes

The near-doubling of export unit prices (+92.7%) while volumes fell sharply points to a significant compositional shift in EU exports. The EU appears to have moved away from competing in bulk, commodity-type parts and toward exporting higher-value, more specialised, or more technologically sophisticated components. This is consistent with the broader pattern of EU manufacturing specialising in higher-margin niches while losing volume market share to Asian competitors in standardised parts.

This dynamic also reflects the fact that the EU's installed base of air conditioning equipment — increasingly supplied by Asian-manufactured units — still requires replacement parts and service components, some of which are produced domestically and exported within intra-EU or global service networks at premium prices.

2.2 The United Kingdom remained the top export destination; Russia collapsed

The United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's largest extra-EU export market, with exports growing by 68.5% to nearly €400 million. The United States nearly doubled as a destination (+94.9%), likely reflecting strong North American demand for HVAC parts.

The most dramatic decline was in exports to Russia, which fell by 91.6% from €85.8 million to just €7.2 million. This collapse began around 2022 and is almost certainly a direct consequence of the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia had been a significant market for EU-manufactured climate control components, and this loss of over €78 million in annual exports represents a tangible cost of the sanctions policy.

Partner-level export trends are available here.

2.3 EU production grew strongly, but not enough to offset import penetration

EU domestic production of CN 841590 parts, as reported through PRODCOM data (code 28.25.30.10), increased from €1,223 million to €3,430 million over the period — a gain of 180.4%, peaking at approximately €3,769 million. This growth was substantial but was outpaced by the tripling of imports. As a result, the EU's net import reliance moved firmly into positive territory.

Trade intensity — the ratio of extra-EU trade (imports + exports) to (production + imports) — rose from 53.6% to 71.4%, indicating that the EU market for these parts has become significantly more open and import-dependent over the decade. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) also increased, from 39.5% to 48.7%, but this was insufficient to compensate for the import surge.

Production data is available here.

3. Rising Concentration, Shifting Specialisation, and Volatility Risks

Beyond the headline trade figures, structural indicators reveal a market that has become more concentrated in its sourcing, more unevenly specialised across Member States, and more exposed to supply-side shocks.

3.1 Import concentration increased significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,297 to 1,852 (+42.8%). By volume, the increase was even steeper, from 1,560 to 2,592 (+66.1%). While these levels remain below the conventional threshold for a "highly concentrated" market (2,500), the trend is clearly upward and indicates growing dependence on a smaller number of supplier countries — principally China, Thailand, and Türkiye.

Export concentration also rose more modestly (HHI from 799 to 935), but remains well below the import side, reflecting a more diversified set of export destinations.

The concentration analysis provides further detail.

3.2 Specialisation is concentrated in Central European and Southern EU Member States

Using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index for 2025, the most specialised EU exporters of air conditioner parts are:

Czechia is by far the most specialised, with an RCA above 4, indicating that air conditioner parts account for a dramatically disproportionate share of Czech exports relative to the EU average. This is consistent with the well-documented role of Czechia as a manufacturing hub for mechanical and electrical components within Central European supply chains. Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Austria also show meaningful specialisation.

At the other end, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Finland, Latvia, and Greece show negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers of these parts with virtually no export specialisation.

The specialisation rankings are available for consultation.

3.3 Volatility and supply-side shocks pose emerging risks

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import flows reveals that several key supplier relationships are subject to significant year-on-year volatility:

On the export side, volatility was highest for the Russian Federation (CV 0.67) — a consequence of the abrupt sanctions-related trade collapse — and United Arab Emirates (CV 0.45), while established markets like the United Kingdom (CV 0.15) and Switzerland (CV 0.12) were notably stable.

Three supply shock events were flagged:

1. Morocco (exports, 2022): An extreme price shock with an abnormality score of 20.9 and an 80.5% price shift. While Morocco accounts for a small share of EU export value (3.6%), this event suggests a possible one-off contract or data anomaly.
2. China (imports, 2023): A price shock with an abnormality of 4.7 and a 15.6% shift, notable because China accounts for 40.1% of EU import value. A price movement of this magnitude in the dominant supplier has meaningful margin implications for EU assemblers and distributors.
3. South Africa (exports, 2017): A more moderate shock (abnormality 7.5, shift 26.7%), affecting a small market (1.8% of exports).

The volatility analysis provides full details.

Conclusion

The EU market for air conditioner parts (CN 841590) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most consequential shift was the transition from a net export surplus of €217 million to a net import deficit exceeding €1.5 billion, driven by a more than tripling of import volumes — almost entirely from Asian suppliers (China, Thailand, Malaysia) and, notably, Türkiye. Import prices remained remarkably stable throughout, indicating that this was a structural demand shift rather than a cost-driven phenomenon.

On the export side, the EU maintained value growth (+36.5%) through a significant upward revaluation of unit prices (+92.7%), but lost nearly a third of its export volume. This pattern is consistent with a move toward higher-value, specialised product niches — a transition supported by the strong specialisation indices observed for Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, and Italy. The collapse of exports to Russia following the 2022 sanctions was a significant shock, erasing over €78 million in annual trade.

Structural risks have intensified. Import concentration has risen, with China alone accounting for over €1 billion in annual shipments (and growing), while several key supply relationships exhibit elevated volatility. The EU's growing trade intensity (71.4% in 2025) and positive net import reliance (23.5%) signal an increasingly import-dependent market. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, these trends underline the importance of monitoring supply chain resilience, supporting domestic and near-shored production capacity, and managing the strategic implications of deepening reliance on a concentrated set of extra-EU suppliers.