Market evolution: Whole milk powder (CN 04022191) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union trade in whole milk powder (fat content >27%, unsweetened, in packings ≤2.5 kg) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The EU has historically been a dominant exporter of this product. The data reveals a period marked by a significant contraction in export volumes, a restructuring of key trading relationships, and a notable shift towards higher unit values, reflecting underlying changes in production focus, market access, and global pricing dynamics.

The Great Contraction: A Decade of Declining Export Volumes

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the substantial reduction in the physical volume of whole milk powder shipped out of the European Union.

Export volumes fell by over half while prices surged

Between 2015 and 2025, the quantity of EU exports plummeted by 56.9%, from 85,545 tonnes to 36,857 tonnes (General Overview). This decline is not offset by price trends; in fact, the average export price increased by 49.0% over the same period, rising from €3,856/t to €5,745/t. The result is a 35.8% drop in total export value, from €330 million to €212 million.

The decline was pervasive across most EU member states

The contraction was broad-based. Among the top seven exporting member states, only the Netherlands maintained significant volumes, though even it saw a 25.0% value decline. Other major exporters experienced steeper falls: Denmark (-54.7% in value), Belgium (-72.8%), and Germany (-99.4%) (Top reporters by value). This points to a sector-wide adjustment, likely driven by shifting production priorities and competitive pressures.

A Pivot from the Middle East: The Restructuring of Export Markets

Alongside the volume decline, the EU's export market profile has undergone a fundamental transformation, with a clear pivot away from traditional partners in the Middle East and Africa.

Kuwait emerged as the dominant and more stable partner

The value share of Kuwait in EU exports increased dramatically, from €51 million in 2015 to €83 million in 2025, a 63.0% rise. Its coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of volatility, is low at 0.24, indicating relatively stable year-on-year trade (Volatility bars). This has increased the concentration of the EU's export base.

Traditional markets in the Middle East and Africa contracted sharply

In contrast, several historically important destinations saw collapses:

• Saudi Arabia: Value fell by 88.7% (from €32M to €3.6M).
• Angola: Value fell by 95.5% (from €33M to €1.5M).
• Yemen: Value fell by 81.6% (from €20M to €3.6M).
• Lebanon: Value fell by 23.6% (from €12M to €9.4M).

This shift suggests changing competitive dynamics (e.g., rising Oceania or U.S. exports), evolving trade agreements, or perhaps specific market disruptions. The increased concentration is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value, which rose by 188.1% over the period, indicating a less diversified and more concentrated trade structure (Concentration HHI).

A notable price shock occurred in 2022

A significant price shock was detected across multiple key partners in 2022. For exports to Kuwait and Lebanon, prices were flagged as extremely abnormal, rising by over 43% and 51% respectively in that single year (Top shock events). This aligns with the global commodity price inflation of that period, driven by supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs.

Structural Shifts in Production and EU Self-Sufficiency

The decline in exports did not occur in a vacuum but is linked to a strategic reduction in EU production volumes for this specific product category.

EU production volumes were halved, but value remained stable

According to PRODCOM data, the EU's production of whole milk powder in ≤2.5 kg packs fell by 51.4% in quantity between 2015 and 2025, from 411,907 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes (Production quantity). However, the production value only decreased by 3.5%, from €1.077 billion to €1.040 billion. This implies a near-doubling of the average production value per kilogram, indicating a shift towards higher-value products or significantly higher costs being passed on.

The Netherlands consolidated its position as the EU's specialised exporter

The Netherlands is by far the most specialised EU exporter of this product. In 2025, it held an Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of 0.73 and produced 91.8% of the EU's total output for this product, while accounting for only 14.5% of total EU dairy production (Most specialised reporters). This confirms its role as the bloc's dominant trader in this niche.

The EU remains a robust net exporter

Despite the collapse in volumes, the EU's net import reliance remained deeply negative throughout the period, improving from -102.1% to -41.6% in 2025 (Net import reliance). This indicates that the bloc consistently exported far more than it imported. Imports, while tiny in absolute value (around €500,000 in 2025), showed high volatility and originated from diverse, often small-scale sources like New Zealand and Panama.

Conclusion

The EU market for whole milk powder (CN 04022191) between 2015 and 2025 is a story of significant contraction and strategic reorientation. The EU's role as a global bulk exporter has diminished markedly, with physical shipments halving. This decline was coupled with a pronounced pivot away from the Middle East and African markets toward a more concentrated relationship with Kuwait.

Underlying this trade shift is a deliberate reduction in production volume, suggesting a move away from this product category. However, the substantial increase in both production and export unit values indicates a potential focus on higher-margin segments. While the EU's self-sufficiency is secure, the market has become more concentrated and reliant on fewer partners, exposing it to potential volatility from those specific corridors. The 2022 price shock underscores the sensitivity of this market to global macroeconomic pressures, even as the EU's structural engagement with the product evolves.