Market evolution: Wheeled tractors (CN 87019410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in wheeled agricultural and forestry tractors with engine power between 75 kW and 130 kW (CN code 87019410) over the 2017–2025 period. The EU remains one of the world's leading producers and exporters of this equipment segment, with major manufacturing hubs in Germany, France, Italy, and Finland. However, the period under review reveals a structural shift: while the EU has maintained its export value, it has done so largely through rising unit prices rather than growing volumes. Simultaneously, imports have more than doubled in value, driven by an influx from the United Kingdom—now outside the EU customs union—alongside emerging suppliers such as Türkiye, India, and China. The result is a narrowing of the EU's trade surplus and a gradual diversification of its import base.

1. A Resilient Export Sector Facing Volume Erosion

The EU maintained its position as a major net exporter throughout the period

Despite a volatile decade, the EU's total extra-EU exports of CN 87019410 tractors remained in a range between approximately €1.49 billion and €3.16 billion, closing at €1.57 billion in 2025—essentially flat compared to the first available year (+3.4%). Throughout this period, exports consistently exceeded imports, generating a trade surplus that began at €1.23 billion in 2017 and ended at €951 million in 2025 (General Overview).

Export volumes declined significantly while unit values surged

The headline export figures mask a critical underlying trend. In mass terms, exports fell from 172,187 tonnes to 128,704 tonnes (–25.3%). In supplementary unit terms (number of tractors), exports were more resilient, declining only from 30,003 units to 28,745 units (–4.2%). This divergence suggests that the average exported tractor became lighter over the period.

However, export prices rose sharply to compensate. The average export price per tonne increased from €8,805 to €12,183 (+38.4%), while the average value per tractor (supplementary unit) grew from €50,505 to €54,550 (+8.0%). This price appreciation reflects a combination of factors: inflation in raw materials and components, technological upgrading of tractor models, and possibly a shift in the product mix toward higher-specification units.

The United States and the United Kingdom remained the dominant export destinations

The two largest extra-EU export markets were consistently the United States (€546 million in 2025, +19.8% vs. 2017) and the United Kingdom (€292 million, +9.3%). Türkiye grew from €75 million to €144 million (+91.6%), becoming the fourth-largest destination. Australia and New Zealand, by contrast, showed declines (–61.5% and –25.2% respectively), possibly reflecting currency movements or shifts in competitive dynamics. The US market at its peak absorbed €1.36 billion of EU tractor exports, underscoring its strategic importance (Top partners by value — exports).

2. Import Surge and Shifting Supplier Landscape

EU imports more than doubled in value, driven by price and volume growth

EU imports of CN 87019410 tractors surged from €281 million in 2017 to €617 million in 2025—an increase of 119.5%. In mass terms, imports grew from 36,519 tonnes to 53,912 tonnes (+47.6%). Strikingly, the supplementary unit count (number of imported tractors) actually fell from 13,911 units to 10,141 units (–27.1%), meaning that fewer but heavier—and far more expensive—units were imported. The average import price per tonne rose from €7,703 to €11,454 (+48.7%), while the price per imported tractor exploded from €20,222 to €60,891 (+201.1%) (General Overview).

The United Kingdom became the dominant import source after Brexit

The most dramatic shift in the import landscape was the rise of the United Kingdom as the EU's primary tractor supplier. Imports from the UK grew from €201 million (2017) to €384 million (2025, +91.3%), accounting for the vast majority of total imports. This reflects the post-Brexit reclassification of intra-EU trade to extra-EU trade flows, combined with the UK's substantial tractor manufacturing base (notably through major brands operating UK plants). In the most recent period, the UK represented approximately 62% of all extra-EU imports by value.

New suppliers emerged rapidly, though from low bases

Several non-traditional suppliers entered or expanded their presence in the EU market:

• Türkiye: Rose from €1.9 million to €56.4 million (+2,896.5%), reflecting the growth of Turkey's domestic tractor industry and its customs union arrangement with the EU.
• India: Grew from €0.8 million to €46.6 million (+5,506.1%), suggesting Indian manufacturers (e.g., Mahindra, TAFE) are increasingly targeting European markets with competitive pricing.
• China: Expanded from €0.4 million to €9.8 million (+2,440.0%), albeit from a very low base.

By contrast, Belarus saw a dramatic decline from €10.9 million to €1.3 million (–88.5%), likely linked to EU sanctions following the geopolitical developments of 2020–2022 (Top partners by value — imports).

Import concentration declined, indicating supplier diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 5,360 to 4,152 (–22.5%), moving from a moderately concentrated market toward a more diversified one. This was driven by the entry of multiple new suppliers (Türkiye, India, China) reducing the UK's relative dominance, even as its absolute share grew. Export concentration, by contrast, increased slightly from 1,455 to 1,772 (+21.7%), suggesting a modest tightening around key destinations (Concentration — HHI).

3. Production Capacity, Specialisation, and Price Volatility

EU production remained substantial, underpinning export capacity

The EU produced an estimated 104,100 tractors (supplementary units) in 2025, valued at approximately €7.2 billion, up from 100,000 units / €6.0 billion in 2017 (+4.1% in volume, +20.0% in value). Production peaked at 142,731 units in an intermediate year, demonstrating the sector's cyclical sensitivity. With exports accounting for roughly 28,000–30,000 units per year and imports around 10,000–14,000 units, the EU is structurally self-sufficient in this tractor segment and a consistent net exporter (Production volumes).

Germany, France, Italy, and Finland led in export specialisation

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows the EU's export specialisation in CN 87019410 is concentrated in a handful of Member States:

Finland stands out with an exceptionally high RCA of 11.0, reflecting its specialised agri-machinery industry relative to its small total trade base. Germany dominates in absolute terms, accounting for 43.5% of EU tractor exports.

Conversely, Ireland (RSCA –0.945), Sweden (–0.903), and the Netherlands (–0.859) are net importers with virtually no comparative advantage in this product, despite the Netherlands' large overall trade share (Specialisation).

Belgium's import surge signals a possible logistics hub effect

Among EU Member States, Belgium recorded an extraordinary increase in imports—from €7.1 million to €235.2 million (+3,231%). This likely reflects Belgium's role as a logistics and distribution hub (Antwerp–Bruges port area) rather than domestic consumption alone. France (+182.3%) and the Netherlands (+359.7%) also saw large import increases, while Germany's imports collapsed from €61.7 million to €4.1 million (–93.3%), potentially indicating a shift in sourcing patterns or reclassification effects (Top reporters by value — imports).

Import price volatility was notably high for emerging suppliers

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values reveals significant instability in newer supply relationships. India (CV = 1.12), Korea (1.09), and Mexico (1.62) exhibited the highest volatility, consistent with their low and lumpy trade volumes. Among established partners, Türkiye (0.91) also showed high variability. The most stable import relationships were with Switzerland (CV = 0.17) and the United Kingdom (CV = 0.42), as expected given their long-standing trade ties and geographic proximity (Volatility bars).

A notable supply shock was detected in UK imports around 2020

The data reveals a price shock in EU imports from the United Kingdom centred on 2020, characterised by an abnormality score of 7.3 and a price shift of –21.9%. This coincides with the Brexit transition period and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK's share of total import value at that point stood at 81.1%, making this shock highly significant for the overall market. The price drop may reflect competitive pricing strategies by UK manufacturers seeking to maintain market access during the uncertain post-Brexit period, or broader pandemic-related demand softening (Supply shocks).

Conclusion

The EU market for wheeled agricultural and forestry tractors in the 75–130 kW segment (CN 87019410) has undergone a quiet transformation over the 2017–2025 period. While the EU remains a major net exporter—led by Germany, France, Italy, and Finland—the traditional trade surplus has narrowed from €1.23 billion to €951 million. This erosion stems from two parallel dynamics: declining export volumes (partially offset by price increases) and rapidly growing imports.

The most significant structural shift has been the reclassification of UK–EU tractor trade as extra-EU flows following Brexit, which catapulted the United Kingdom to the position of dominant import supplier (€384 million, 62% of extra-EU imports). Beyond Brexit effects, genuinely new supply sources have emerged—Türkiye, India, and China collectively grew from €3 million to €113 million, signalling a long-term diversification of the EU's import base.

Looking ahead, the EU's strong production foundation (€7.2 billion, 104,000 units) and deep specialisation in key Member States provide a solid competitive position. However, the combination of rising import competition from lower-cost producers, increasing unit prices across both exports and imports, and persistent volatility in newer supply relationships suggests that the EU tractor trade landscape will continue to evolve. Policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor the growth of emerging suppliers and the risk of over-reliance on any single import source, even as the sector remains broadly resilient.