Market evolution: Vitamin E (CN 293628) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of Vitamin E and its derivatives (CN 293628) within the European Union from 2015 to 2025. The period was characterised by significant shifts in value, geography, and market concentration, driven largely by price increases. By examining trade flows, partner relationships, and vulnerability indicators, we can identify the key forces shaping the EU's position in this global market.

Surging Values Driven by Price, Not Volume

The most striking feature of the EU's Vitamin E trade between 2015 and 2025 is the dramatic divergence between the growth in trade value and the more modest growth in physical quantity, pointing to a strong price-driven market.

Export values more than doubled while volumes saw only modest growth

EU exports of Vitamin E grew substantially in value, from €79.7 million in 2015 to €186.2 million in 2025, an increase of 133.8%. However, the exported quantity grew by only 8.6%, from 11,538 tonnes to 12,532 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a 115.2% increase in the unit export price, which rose from €6,904 per tonne to €14,856 per tonne.

Source: EU Trade Overview

Imports exhibited a similar pattern, widening the EU's trade deficit

A parallel trend is observed for imports. The EU's import value rose by 166.0% (from €238.3 million to €633.9 million), while import volume increased by 22.3% (from 38,741 tonnes to 47,387 tonnes). The import price rose by 117.5%, reaching €13,376 per tonne in 2025. Consequently, the EU's trade deficit in this sector expanded significantly, from €-158.6 million in 2015 to €-447.6 million in 2025.

Shifting Geographic Dependencies and Export Diversification

The period saw a reconfiguration of the EU's key trading partners, with increased import concentration on China and a successful diversification of EU exports towards new high-growth markets.

Import reliance solidified around China

China cemented its position as the dominant supplier of Vitamin E to the EU. Imports from China surged from €147.8 million in 2015 to €424.7 million in 2025 (a 187.3% increase), accounting for the vast majority of the EU's import growth. Switzerland remained the second-largest source, with imports growing from €62.1 million to €176.4 million.

Source: Top Partners

EU exports diversified towards high-growth economies

EU exporters successfully penetrated new markets. The most dramatic growth was seen in exports to the United States (+319.2%), Russia (+307.8%), and Türkiye (+286.9%). Traditional partners like the United Kingdom also remained important, with exports growing by 37.8%. This diversification is reflected in a 32.1% rise in the export concentration index (HHI), indicating a broadening of the export base across more partners.

Source: Top Partners

Intra-EU production shows strong specialisation

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands and France are the most specialised producers of Vitamin E, with very high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.65 and 0.27, respectively. These two countries also dominate intra-EU production value. This specialisation suggests a concentrated production base within the EU.

Source: Specialisation

Market Resilience and Emerging Risks

While the EU's market has grown in value, the underlying structure presents both resilience and new vulnerabilities, as highlighted by volatility measures and detected supply shocks.

Import reliance is stable, but export intensity is growing

The EU's net import reliance for Vitamin E remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 7.4% and 25.8% over the decade, ending at 17.8% in 2025. This indicates a consistent, but not growing, dependency on imports. More notably, the EU's export propensity (exports as a share of domestic production) increased from 35.2% to 39.3%, signalling that the EU industry became more outward-oriented during this period.

Volatility varies sharply among trading partners

Trade volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), differs greatly among partners. EU imports from China and Switzerland are the most stable (low CV), while imports from countries like Brazil and Indonesia are highly volatile. For exports, flows to the UK, US, and Russia show moderate volatility. This suggests that while core supply chains are stable, trade with secondary partners is more unpredictable.

Source: Volatility

Recent price shocks highlight market sensitivity

The data detects significant price shocks in EU export flows. The most pronounced events were a 95.3% price spike to South Africa in 2019, a 141.7% spike to Thailand in 2023, and a 75.8% spike to the United Kingdom in 2022. These isolated events indicate that the market can be subject to sudden, localised price pressures, potentially affecting profitability and trade relationships.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's Vitamin E market evolved dramatically in value terms, driven overwhelmingly by price increases rather than volume expansion. The EU intensified its import dependency on China while simultaneously diversifying its export portfolio towards high-growth economies like the US, Russia, and Türkiye. Domestically, production is highly specialised in the Netherlands and France. While core import supply lines appear stable, the market exhibits vulnerabilities through high volatility in secondary trade flows and susceptibility to sharp, localised price shocks in export markets. Overall, the period reflects a maturing global market where the EU's industry has responded to price pressures by scaling its value rather than its physical output and by seeking new international avenues for its products.