Market evolution: Other vitamins (CN 293629) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's trade dynamics for residual vitamins classified under CN 293629, covering the period from 2015 to 2025. This code encompasses vitamins and their derivatives not individually classified under the major vitamin codes (A, B1, B2, B3, B5, B6, B12, C, E), making it a residual category that captures a diverse range of less-traded or niche vitamin compounds. The analysis draws on Eurostat data to identify structural shifts in trade flows, key partner dynamics, and evolving supply vulnerabilities.

1. A Strengthening Export Base Amid Declining Import Values

The EU's overall trade position improved substantially over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade balance for CN 293629 improved by 54.0%, narrowing from a deficit of €236 million to €108 million. This improvement was driven by contrasting trajectories: exports grew robustly while imports contracted.

Export growth was volume-led, not price-driven

The 41.0% increase in export volumes, combined with a marginal 2.7% decline in unit prices, indicates that EU producers gained competitiveness by expanding output rather than commanding higher prices. The EU production value for this product group grew by 36.5% (from €1.58 billion to €2.16 billion), confirming a genuine expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity.

Import decline reflected both volume contraction and price deflation

Imports fell by 18.1% in value terms, with the decline split between a 5.9% drop in volume and a 12.4% fall in unit prices. The sharper price decline on the import side (versus the export side) suggests that global supply conditions became more favourable for buyers, possibly reflecting increased production capacity in Asia.

2. Geopolitical Realignments Reshape EU Trade Partners

The United Kingdom's role collapsed after Brexit

The most dramatic shift in import partner composition was the near-disappearance of the United Kingdom as a source. UK-origin imports fell by 88.8%, from €86.6 million to just €9.7 million. As recently as 2015, the UK was the EU's second-largest import source; by 2025, it had fallen out of the top seven entirely. This likely reflects both the reclassification of UK-EU trade post-Brexit and genuine supply-chain restructuring.

Switzerland and India emerged as key alternative suppliers

Partially offsetting the UK's decline, imports from Switzerland grew by 85.7% (from €40.0 million to €74.3 million), while Indian imports rose by 32.0% (from €32.3 million to €42.7 million). India's growth is consistent with the country's well-documented expansion in bulk pharmaceutical and vitamin intermediates.

China remained the dominant supplier but saw a modest contraction

China retained its position as the EU's largest single import source, accounting for €135.8 million in 2025. However, this represented a 10.1% decline from 2015 levels (€151.1 million), suggesting a gradual diversification away from Chinese dependence.

Export markets diversified, with notable growth in Algeria and the United States

On the export side, EU exports to Algeria surged by 1,322% (from €0.6 million to €8.1 million), while exports to the United States grew by 78.9% (from €24.7 million to €44.2 million). Russia, by contrast, saw a 39.8% decline in EU-origin imports, potentially reflecting geopolitical sanctions and trade restrictions.

3. Concentration, Volatility, and Strategic Vulnerabilities

Import concentration remained moderate and relatively stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value barely changed over the period (from 2,786 to 2,781), indicating a persistently moderate level of concentration. Export-side HHI fell from 1,075 to 909, suggesting that EU exporters broadened their customer base across more diverse markets.

Supply-side volatility varied sharply across partners

The coefficient of variation of import values reveals significant differences in reliability among key suppliers:

India (0.13) and China (0.25) demonstrated the most stable supply patterns, while imports from the United States (1.01) and the United Kingdom (0.82) were highly volatile — the latter likely reflecting the disruption of Brexit.

Price shocks were detected in smaller, more specialised export flows

The shock analysis identified three significant price shock events in EU exports:

The Iran shock in 2020 coincides with tightened sanctions regimes, while the China shock in 2022 may reflect post-COVID supply disruptions. These events, while notable, affected relatively small shares of total EU exports.

The EU remains a net importer but with improving self-sufficiency indicators

The net import reliance increased slightly from 16.1% to 17.8%, but this masks significant year-to-year variation (with a low of 7.4% and a high of 25.8%). Meanwhile, export propensity rose from 35.2% to 39.3%, indicating that an increasing share of EU production is destined for external markets. This growing export orientation, combined with production value growth of 36.5%, signals that the EU is consolidating its position as a competitive producer in this niche vitamin segment.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU trade in other vitamins (CN 293629) underwent a significant structural transformation. The most notable development was the strengthening of the EU's export capacity — both in volume and geographic diversification — which substantially narrowed the trade deficit. Simultaneously, the import landscape was reshaped by Brexit (dramatically reducing UK flows) and the growing importance of Switzerland and India as alternative suppliers to China.

Despite these shifts, moderate import concentration and persistent reliance on Chinese supply remain features of the market. Price volatility among smaller suppliers and occasional shock events highlight the ongoing need for supply-chain resilience strategies. The EU's rising export propensity and growing production base suggest, however, that the bloc is well-positioned to navigate these vulnerabilities in the years ahead.