Market evolution: Used petrol cars (CN 87032390) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in used petrol-powered passenger vehicles with engine displacements between 1,500 cm³ and 3,000 cm³ (customs code CN 87032390) over the 2015–2025 period. The EU is overwhelmingly a net exporter in this segment, with exports valued at €1.24 billion in 2025 against imports of €592 million. Over the decade, however, the trade surplus narrowed by 33.3%, from €964 million to €643 million, reflecting a fundamental shift in the market's dynamics — driven by rising unit prices, changing geographic patterns, and a growing appetite among EU Member States for importing used vehicles from non-EU countries.

1. The Great Price–Volume Divergence: Exporting Fewer but More Expensive Cars

1.1 Export volumes collapsed while values barely moved

The most striking feature of EU export performance over the decade is the dramatic divergence between volume and value. In mass terms, exports fell by 45.9%, from 431,032 tonnes in 2015 to 233,231 tonnes in 2025. In unit count, the decline was more moderate at 5.9% (from 367,348 to 345,501 vehicles), suggesting that the exported fleet shifted toward lighter, smaller-engined vehicles over time. Yet total export value edged up by 3.2%, from €1.20 billion to €1.24 billion. This implies a dramatic repricing:

1.2 Rising per-unit prices reflect vehicle-quality inflation

While the price per tonne nearly doubled (+90.7%), the price per unit rose more modestly at 9.7% (from €3,260 to €3,577). The gap between these two measures indicates that the average exported vehicle became significantly lighter over the period — consistent with a shift from heavier, older, large-displacement models toward newer and lighter used vehicles whose residual value is higher. The minimum per-unit price of €2,858 and maximum of €7,601 across all years underscores the wide quality spectrum within this tariff line.

1.3 The COVID-19 shock and subsequent recovery

The 2020 pandemic year stands out as the low point. Export volumes sank to a minimum of 180,453 units and 217,207 tonnes, while value dropped to €921 million — the lowest of the entire period. Recovery was swift: by 2021–2022, volumes and values rebounded, though the structural shift toward higher-priced vehicles had already taken hold, pushing per-unit export prices to their peak of €7,601 in that period.

2. Import Surge: The EU as a Growing Destination for Non-EU Used Cars

2.1 Import values more than doubled

While exports stagnated in value, imports more than doubled, rising 153.7% from €233 million in 2015 to €592 million in 2025. The unit count increased by 28.0% (from 71,506 to 91,504 vehicles), but the per-unit price nearly doubled (+98.3%, from €3,265 to €6,473), indicating that the EU increasingly imported higher-value used vehicles.

Import values peaked at €592 million and import volumes at 137,782 units in the most recent period, marking a secular upward trend rather than a one-off spike.

2.2 Japan's explosive rise as an import source

The most dramatic shift in the import partner landscape was Japan's ascent from €21 million in 2015 to €179 million in 2025 — a 771.8% increase. Japan became the EU's single largest import source by value, overtaking the United Kingdom, which remained flat at around €67 million. The United States also grew strongly (+154.4% to €176 million), while Canada (+546.0%) and Mexico (+533.8%) emerged as meaningful suppliers from much smaller bases.

Japan's rise likely reflects the well-established flow of quality used Japanese vehicles (often right-hand-drive converted or destined for specific EU markets) and the strong residual value of Japanese brands in Europe. The UK's stagnation, meanwhile, may reflect post-Brexit trade frictions offsetting geographic proximity.

2.3 Which EU Member States absorbed these imports?

Among EU reporters, the Netherlands saw the most spectacular import growth (+1,016.8%, from €10 million to €114 million), followed by Cyprus (+967.4%, from €12 million to €127 million). These figures strongly suggest that both countries serve as major transit or redistribution hubs for used vehicles entering the EU. Lithuania (+137.5%), Spain (+185.6%), and France (+149.7%) also recorded strong growth. Germany, despite being the EU's largest car market, saw essentially flat import values (~€69 million), suggesting its used-car demand is largely met domestically or intra-EU.

3. Shifting Trade Geography and Concentrated Export Markets

3.1 Export destinations: Africa dominates, but with high volatility

The EU's export geography is overwhelmingly oriented toward Africa, with Libya, Benin, Nigeria, Guinea, Togo, and Cameroon consistently among the top seven destinations. However, this trade is marked by extreme volatility:

• Benin saw exports collapse from €163 million in 2015 to €18 million in 2025 (−89.1%), likely reflecting shifting transit patterns in West Africa's used-car re-export trade.
• Ukraine surged from €8 million to €54 million (+603.0%), with demand likely driven by wartime vehicle needs and EU solidarity logistics.
• Guinea doubled from €17 million to €38 million (+120.8%).

3.2 Germany remains the EU's export engine, but losing share

Within the EU, Germany dominated exports with €542 million in 2025 (43.9% of total), but its value declined by 17.5% from €658 million in 2015. Belgium, the second-largest exporter, fell 25.5% to €207 million. By contrast, several smaller EU members expanded rapidly:

• Poland surged from €6 million to €45 million (+679.1%), now contributing 3.7% of exports.
• Netherlands grew 55.5% to €99 million.
• France grew 64.4% to €52 million.
• Sweden collapsed from €48 million to €10 million (−78.3%).

This suggests a gradual diversification of the EU's export base, with Central and Western European states gaining relative to traditional powerhouses.

3.3 Export concentration rose while import concentration eased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value increased by 48.3%, from 803 to 1,192, indicating growing concentration on fewer destination markets. This is consistent with the collapse of Benin and Nigeria offsetting gains elsewhere. For imports, the HHI declined slightly (−6.1%), reflecting the diversification of supply sources — particularly the rise of Japan, Canada, and Mexico alongside traditional European suppliers like the UK and Switzerland. Import concentration by volume fell more sharply (−19.7%), from 2,657 to 2,134, confirming a genuine broadening of the supply base.

3.4 Volatility and price shocks

The volatility analysis reveals that the UK import stream was by far the most volatile (coefficient of variation of 1.31), likely reflecting the disruption of the Brexit transition period. Ukraine imports were also highly volatile (CV 1.25), consistent with the geopolitical upheaval from 2022 onward. On the export side, Benin (CV 1.09) and Côte d'Ivoire (CV 1.39) showed the most erratic trade flows. A notable price shock was detected for Côte d'Ivoire in 2019, where export unit values spiked by 345.4% — an abnormality score of 76.9 — potentially indicating a shift in the type of vehicles exported to that market or a data reporting anomaly.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in used petrol cars (CN 87032390) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation. Exports remained roughly stable in value but shed nearly half their physical mass, as the EU shifted toward exporting fewer, lighter, and more expensive used vehicles. Meanwhile, imports more than doubled in value, driven by surging flows from Japan and North America, and absorbed particularly by transit hubs like the Netherlands and Cyprus. The trade surplus, while still substantial at €643 million, has narrowed significantly. Geographically, export markets remain concentrated in Africa but have become more volatile, with traditional destinations like Benin and Nigeria in decline and Ukraine emerging as a major new market. The overall picture is one of a mature but adjusting market — shaped by the energy transition, Brexit aftershocks, the COVID-19 disruption, geopolitical conflict, and the ongoing globalization of the used-car supply chain.