Market evolution: Used diesel cars (CN 87033290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of used diesel passenger vehicles (customs code 87033290) involving the European Union as a reporter and non-EU countries as partners, from 2015 to 2025. The period is marked by significant growth in both export and import volumes, evolving geographic patterns, and shifting price dynamics. The EU consistently maintains a positive trade balance in this segment, although the structure of its trading relationships has undergone notable changes.

1. Surging Trade Volumes with Declining Unit Values

The 2015–2025 decade was characterized by robust growth in the physical volume of trade, coupled with a general decline in average prices. This suggests a market expansion driven by higher quantities rather than increasing unit values.

1.1. Strong Growth in Physical Trade

Both exports and imports saw substantial increases in tonnage, indicating a flourishing cross-border market for used diesel cars.

• While export mass grew by 36.3%, the number of vehicles exported increased even faster (56.5%), suggesting the average exported vehicle became lighter over time.
• Import mass more than doubled (+114.6%), but the count of imported vehicles fell by 15.6%. This divergence implies that the average imported vehicle became significantly heavier, a trend likely influenced by shifts in the mix of models being sourced.

1.2. Value Trends and the Price Erosion

Monetary growth lagged behind physical growth, reflecting a widespread decline in average transaction prices.

• The EU's trade balance in value terms remained strongly positive, growing from €995 million in 2015 to €1.27 billion in 2025 (+27.8%).
• A pronounced price compression is observed, especially in imports, where the average price per tonne fell by 18.1%. This could indicate increased competition, a shift towards older or lower-value models, or broader deflationary pressures in the used car market.

2. A Realignment of Geographic Partnerships

The geographic landscape of the EU's used car trade underwent a significant transformation. Traditional partners were joined or supplanted by new, high-growth destinations and sources.

2.1. Export Diversification: The Rise of Eastern European Neighbours

EU exporters found explosive growth in nearby markets, particularly those in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans.

• Ukraine became the premier non-EU destination, with its share of EU exports growing dramatically. The top partners data shows this was a sustained trend, not a one-off event.
• Traditional partners like Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina also saw solid growth (+30.7% and +56.5% respectively), confirming the region's importance.

2.2. Import Sourcing: A Shift Towards Asia

On the import side, the EU diversified away from some European sources towards a major new supplier in Asia.

• The emergence of Japan and South Korea as major import sources is the defining feature. Japan's growth from a marginal supplier to a €60 million source is particularly striking.
• This shift is reflected in the decreasing concentration of imports (HHI from 3,285 to 2,238), meaning the import market became more diversified among partners.

3. Market Structure and Volatility Profiles

The internal market structure of EU Member States and the volatility of trade flows with specific partners reveal further layers of specialization and risk.

3.1. Specialization within the EU

Trade in these used diesel cars is not uniform across the Union. Certain Member States exhibit a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in exporting them.

• Based on specialisation data, Germany, Belgium, and Denmark are the powerhouse exporters, collectively responsible for over 66% of the EU's export value.
• Conversely, countries like Greece and Portugal have virtually no specialization in this segment, acting mainly as importers.

3.2. Partner-Specific Volatility and Risk

Trade flows with certain partners are highly volatile, presenting both opportunities and risks for traders.

• The volatility profiles mirror the growth patterns. High-growth partners like Japan and Ukraine also exhibit high year-to-year variability, whereas mature, stable partners like Switzerland have lower volatility.
• A notable price shock was detected in exports to Guinea in 2022, though its overall market impact was minor.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for used diesel cars (CN 87033290) expanded in volume but saw downward pressure on prices. The most profound change was geographic: export growth was powered by Eastern European neighbours, while import sourcing pivoted sharply towards Japan and South Korea, diversifying the supply base. This realignment created a more complex trade network with varying degrees of specialization among EU states and heightened volatility with key new partners. The EU maintained a strong trade surplus, but the nature of that surplus evolved, characterized by more vehicles flowing out at lower average values and more, heavier vehicles coming in from a wider range of global sources.