Market evolution: Unwrought silver (CN 710691) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of unwrought silver (Customs code 710691) for the European Union over the period 2015-2025. The analysis is based on official trade data, focusing on key metrics such as trade value, volume, price, and market structure. Over the decade, the EU's trade in this commodity underwent a profound transformation, shifting from a modest import-dependent position to a major net exporter, driven by surging global demand and significant regional price differentials.

From Import Reliance to Export Powerhouse

The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance for unwrought silver. The Union moved from being a net importer to becoming a significant net exporter, fundamentally altering its role in the global silver market.

A Decade of Surpluses

The EU's trade balance swung from a positive but modest €808 million in 2015 to a substantial surplus of €3.16 billion in 2025. This represents a remarkable increase of 291%. The shift became pronounced after 2020, with the surplus growing consistently each year. The net import reliance metric confirms this, falling from +13.6% in 2015 to -107.1% in 2025, indicating the EU now exports more than double the value it imports.

Export Value and Volume Growth

While both exports and imports grew, exports expanded dramatically faster. EU export value surged by 230%, from €1.29 billion to €4.27 billion. The export quantity increased by a more modest 41%, from 2,785 tonnes to 3,939 tonnes. This indicates that a significant portion of the value growth was driven by higher prices rather than just increased volumes. In contrast, import value grew by 128.5%, and import volume by 40.3%.

The Price-Volume Divergence and Key Partners

The 2020s were characterized by a powerful price rally for unwrought silver, which became the primary engine of trade value growth. This period also saw a significant reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners.

Price-Driven Value Expansion

The average unit price of EU silver exports more than doubled, increasing by 133.4% from €464,246 per tonne in 2015 to €1.08 million per tonne in 2025. Import prices also rose, but more slowly, by 62.9% to €840,495 per tonne. This price differential widened the EU's trade surplus further. The price surge aligns with global trends, including increased industrial demand (e.g., for solar panels) and investment interest. A notable price shock was detected in EU imports from the United States in 2020, with a 65.5% price increase.

Diversification of Export Partners, Consolidation in Imports

The concentration of EU exports (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) decreased by 49.8%, indicating a broadening of the customer base. While the United Kingdom remained the top destination, exports to Switzerland and other partners like Türkiye and India grew exponentially (see table below). Conversely, the concentration of EU imports increased by 83.8%, suggesting a growing reliance on a fewer number of key suppliers.

Evolution of EU's Top Trading Partners (by Value)

Source: EU trade by partner

Industrial Specialization and Domestic Production

The EU's increased export capacity is linked to its internal industrial structure. Production data reveals moderate volume growth but massive value appreciation, while trade specialization metrics show a clear leading role for specific member states.

EU Production: Volume vs. Value

EU domestic production volume of unwrought silver grew by 18.7%, from 4.66 million kg in 2015 to 5.53 million kg in 2025. However, the production value skyrocketed by 184.3%, from €1.27 billion to an estimated €3.6 billion. This dramatic value increase underscores the impact of higher silver prices on the continent's extractive and refining industries.

Concentrated Specialization Within the EU

The EU's export capacity is not uniformly distributed. Specialization indices for 2025 reveal a high degree of concentration. Belgium and Sweden exhibit the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), indicating they are strongly specialized in this product. Germany, while the largest exporter by value, shows a more moderate RSCA, reflecting its large and diversified industrial base. The top five specialized members (Belgium, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Germany) account for the vast majority of the EU's export propensity in this sector.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU unwrought silver market underwent a structural transformation. It evolved from a marginally net-importing region to a major net exporter with a trade surplus exceeding €3 billion. This shift was powered by a combination of factors: a global silver price boom that amplified the value of trade, strategic pivots in trade partnerships (notably a massive increase in exports to Switzerland and the UK), and an underlying industrial base that, while growing moderately in physical output, captured substantial value gains. The market's dynamics highlight the EU's growing integration into and leverage within the global precious metals supply chain, driven by price, specialized production in key member states, and an increasingly diversified export network.