Market evolution: Toothbrushes (CN 960321) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Toothbrushes are a high-frequency consumer good with near-universal demand, making their trade patterns a revealing lens into broader manufacturing competitiveness, consumer trends, and geopolitical shifts. This report examines the evolution of EU trade in toothbrushes and dental-plate brushes (Combined Nomenclature code 960321) over the period 2015–2025, drawing on trade-flow data between the European Union and its non-EU partners.

Over the eleven-year window, the EU toothbrush market underwent three fundamental transformations: its once-robust trade surplus was cut in half as imports grew nearly twice as fast as exports in value terms; EU exporters repositioned toward significantly higher-value products even as physical volumes declined; and the geographic map of trade was redrawn by Brexit, Western sanctions on Russia, and the accelerating rise of Asian — particularly Chinese, Vietnamese, and Indian — suppliers. The analysis that follows develops each of these themes in turn.

1. The Eroding Surplus: Rising Imports Narrow the EU's Trade Balance

The most striking macro-level finding is the progressive narrowing of the EU's trade surplus in toothbrushes. Between 2015 and 2025, the annual balance shrank from €60.7 million to €31.4 million — a decline of 48.3% — and at its lowest point briefly dipped into a small deficit of €5.0 million (General Overview).

Import growth significantly outpaced export growth

Imports surged by 61.6% in value terms while exports managed a more modest 39.0% gain. In volume (net mass), the divergence is even more pronounced: import tonnage rose 34.3% (from 16,503 t to 22,168 t) while export tonnage actually fell 10.9% (from 8,951 t to 7,977 t). The supplementary unit data tells the same story in consumer-relevant terms: the EU imported 1.0 billion toothbrushes in 2025, up from 684 million in 2015 (+46.3%), while exports grew more modestly from 587 million to 675 million pieces (+15.0%).

Domestic production has contracted sharply

At the root of the eroding surplus lies a decline in EU manufacturing capacity. Reported EU production of toothbrushes fell from an estimated 815 million units (€350 million) in 2015 to roughly 600 million units (€256 million) in 2025 — a contraction of approximately 26–27% in both volume and value (Production volumes). In the peak year, production reached as high as 1.2 billion items, but by the end of the period it had settled at the lowest level in the series. This contraction left a growing gap that imports filled, particularly from low-cost Asian suppliers.

Net import reliance has shifted dramatically

The net import reliance indicator moved from −56.2% in 2015 to −10.6% in 2025 — an 81.2% change toward zero. A negative value signifies net exporter status; the EU remained a net exporter throughout most of the period, but only barely so by 2025. At the series minimum (around 2020), the indicator briefly turned positive at +1.8%, meaning the EU temporarily became a net importer — likely reflecting a COVID-era collapse in exports combined with resilient import demand.

2. Premium Positioning: EU Exports Command Higher Unit Values Despite Declining Volumes

While the headline trade balance deteriorated, a second and arguably more important dynamic emerges from the price data: EU toothbrush exports underwent a dramatic value uplift, indicating a strategic shift toward premium products.

Export prices per tonne rose 56%, far outpacing import price growth

The EU's export price per tonne reached €51,412 in 2025 — exactly three times the import price per tonne of €17,084. This 3:1 ratio underscores that the EU specialises in high-end toothbrushes (electric replacement heads, premium manual brushes, professional dental-plate brushes) while importing predominantly mass-market products. On a per-piece basis, EU exports fetched €0.61 versus €0.38 for imports — a 60% premium (General Overview).

The weight-per-unit divergence reveals a shift in product mix

A telling detail emerges when comparing mass-based and count-based metrics. For exports, tonnage fell 10.9% while the number of pieces rose 15.0% — implying the average weight per exported toothbrush declined by roughly 23% over the period. This is consistent with EU manufacturers shifting toward lighter, higher-value products (such as premium manual brushes or compact electric brush heads) and away from heavier, lower-margin items. For imports, the tonnage increase (+34.3%) lagged the piece count increase (+46.3%), also pointing to lighter average items — likely reflecting the growing share of simple, lightweight manual brushes from Asia.

Trade intensity and export propensity have surged

The export propensity of the EU toothbrush sector jumped from 72.9% to 153.7% (+110.9%), meaning that EU exports now substantially exceed domestic production — a hallmark of a hub economy that imports components or semi-finished goods and re-exports finished products. Similarly, trade intensity rose from 80.2% to 122.0% (+52.1%), indicating that the EU toothbrush market has become deeply integrated into global supply chains.

Germany anchors the EU's export specialisation

Within the EU, Germany dominates both production and exports, accounting for 36.3% of production value and exporting €218 million in 2025 (up 37.4% from 2015). This reflects the presence of major oral-care manufacturers (Braun/Oral-B, among others) headquartered there. Other notably specialised EU producers include Hungary (highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage score of 0.55), Sweden (0.39), and Ireland (0.27), as shown in the specialisation data.

3. Realigning Currents: Brexit, Sanctions, and the Asian Pivot Reshape Trade Partnerships

The geographic composition of EU toothbrush trade shifted markedly over the decade, driven by three main forces: the expansion of Asian suppliers, the United Kingdom's exit from the EU single market, and the impact of Western sanctions on Russia.

China and Southeast Asia have consolidated their position as the EU's primary supply base

China remained the EU's largest single source of toothbrush imports by a wide margin, with flows rising from €82.0 million to €139.7 million (+70.5%). However, the fastest growth came from Viet Nam (+121.1%) and Switzerland (+107.3%). Vietnamese growth likely reflects the broader "China+1" diversification strategy adopted by global brands seeking to reduce single-country supply risk. Switzerland's surge is notable and may reflect re-export activity or the role of Swiss-based trading companies and headquarters of multinational oral-care brands managing pan-European distribution (Top partners).

Brexit sharply reduced UK–EU toothbrush trade in both directions

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU had a visible and asymmetric impact. UK imports into the EU collapsed by 64.5%, from €23.7 million in 2015 to just €8.4 million in 2025 — the steepest decline among all major partners. Conversely, EU exports to the UK more than doubled (+106.5%), rising from €42.1 million to €87.0 million, making the UK the EU's single largest export destination. This divergence suggests that post-Brexit, the UK became a more important market for EU-manufactured toothbrushes while losing its role as a supplier to the EU, likely due to new customs frictions and rules-of-origin requirements.

Sanctions and geopolitical tensions eroded the Russian market

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €21.7 million to €8.9 million (−58.8%), with most of the decline occurring after 2022. Russia dropped from the EU's third-largest export market to a marginal one. This decline was only partially offset by gains in other markets and is consistent with the broader pattern of Western sanctions and corporate withdrawal following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The export volatility coefficient for the Russian market (0.37) confirms significant instability in this trade flow.

The US and Switzerland became the EU's top export growth engines

Against the backdrop of Russian and Japanese decline, the United States (+149.2%, from €33.9 million to €84.4 million) and Switzerland (+118.6%, from €15.9 million to €34.7 million) emerged as the EU's fastest-growing major export markets. The US in particular absorbed enormous growth, likely driven by premium European brands (electric toothbrush systems, specialty brushes) gaining market share in a large and affluent consumer market. China also emerged as a meaningful EU export destination (+150.5%, reaching €19.4 million), reflecting the growing demand for premium oral-care products among Chinese consumers.

Import concentration has risen, signalling growing supplier dependency

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,400 to 3,074 (+28.1%), moving the EU from a moderately concentrated to a highly concentrated import market. This increase reflects the growing dominance of China and Switzerland as suppliers. On the export side, the HHI also rose (from 636 to 1,072, +68.7%), though from a much lower base — exports remain relatively diversified. The rising import concentration is a vulnerability indicator: the EU's toothbrush supply chain has become more dependent on fewer origins at a time when geopolitical risks are elevated.

Conclusion

The EU toothbrush market between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of simultaneous intensification and stratification. Trade volumes and values grew substantially on both sides, with the market becoming far more globally integrated — trade intensity exceeded 120% by 2025 and export propensity surpassed 150%. Yet beneath this overall growth, the structural balance shifted: the EU's trade surplus was cut nearly in half, domestic production contracted by over a quarter, and import concentration tightened as China, Switzerland, and emerging Southeast Asian suppliers filled the gap.

At the same time, the EU's export sector demonstrated a clear premiumisation trajectory. Export prices per tonne rose 56% while physical volumes declined, indicating a strategic retreat from mass-market products and a move toward high-value, branded toothbrush systems — particularly electric replacement heads and specialist dental brushes. Germany's dominance as both producer and exporter underpins this positioning.

The geopolitical reshuffling of trade partners — the UK's reorientation post-Brexit, Russia's marginalisation after 2022, and Vietnam's rapid rise as an alternative to China — adds a layer of strategic complexity. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, the key question going forward is whether the EU can sustain its premium export positioning while managing the growing supply-chain concentration risk from Asia, even as domestic production capacity continues to contract.