Market evolution: Toilet paper (CN 481810) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in toilet paper in rolls of a width of ≤ 36 cm (customs code 481810) over the period 2015–2025. The European Union is a major producer and a consistent net exporter of this product, with domestic production volumes of 3.5 billion kg in 2025, far exceeding the scale of external trade. Over the decade under review, EU trade in this staple hygiene product underwent notable structural shifts: export values rose while volumes contracted; import volumes grew steadily; prices surged to a new plateau from 2022 onward; and the geopolitical landscape — including Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict — reshaped trade flows with key partners. The analysis that follows is organised around three central findings.

1. A Resilient Export Base Under Pressure: Rising Values, Declining Volumes, and a Narrowing Surplus

The EU has maintained a positive trade balance in toilet paper throughout the period, but the underlying dynamics reveal a gradual erosion of its export dominance. Between 2015 and 2025, the overall trade position shifted: export value grew by 25.8% (from EUR 296.6 million to EUR 373.1 million), yet export volume actually declined by 5.5% (from 179,716 tonnes to 169,776 tonnes). Meanwhile, imports expanded in both value (+39.2%, from EUR 178.6 million to EUR 248.6 million) and volume (+18.1%, from 101,422 tonnes to 119,799 tonnes).

The surplus has narrowed in real terms

The EU's trade surplus in value terms grew modestly from EUR 118.0 million in 2015 to EUR 124.5 million in 2025 (+5.5%). However, when expressed as a share of total trade activity, the surplus contracted. The net import reliance indicator — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — moved from −3.1% in 2015 to −1.6% in 2025, a 47.3% reduction in the net export position. This suggests that while the EU remains self-sufficient, its external competitiveness is gradually declining relative to imports.

Export volumes peaked in the mid-2010s

Export volumes peaked at 181,842 tonnes in 2016 and have trended downward since, reaching a trough of 138,527 tonnes in 2023 before partially recovering to 169,776 tonnes in 2025. This decline was not mirrored on the import side, where volumes grew from 101,422 tonnes to a peak of 135,468 tonnes in 2022 before settling at 119,799 tonnes in 2025.

Note: Net import reliance is negative when the EU is a net exporter; the least negative value (−1.4%) was recorded in 2024.

Trade intensity is rising, but driven by imports

The trade intensity — the share of external trade relative to domestic production — increased from 6.9% in 2015 to 8.5% in 2025. By contrast, export propensity (exports as a share of production) remained relatively stable at around 5.0–5.2%. This divergence confirms that the intensification of external engagement is import-led: the EU is sourcing a growing share of its consumption from outside its borders, even as its own production grew by 47.8% in volume and 86.9% in value over the period.

2. The 2021–2022 Price Shock and the Emergence of a Higher-Cost Market

Perhaps the most striking structural shift in this market is the sharp increase in unit prices that occurred from 2021 onward, fundamentally altering the economics of EU toilet paper trade.

Prices surged by roughly 35–40% in two years

Between 2015 and 2020, export unit prices fluctuated in a narrow band of EUR 1,586–1,672 per tonne, while import prices ranged from EUR 1,567 to EUR 1,841 per tonne. In 2021, prices began rising, and by 2022 they had jumped to EUR 2,341/t for exports and EUR 2,292/t for imports — increases of approximately 40% and 46% respectively compared to 2019. By 2025, prices had moderated slightly but remained well above pre-2021 levels: EUR 2,198/t for exports and EUR 2,075/t for imports.

The price surge was broad-based and coincided with the energy crisis

The timing of the price shock — concentrated in 2022 — aligns with the European energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Toilet paper production is energy- and pulp-intensive, making it particularly exposed to rising input costs. The price increase was observed across both product sub-segments:

• 48181010 (lightweight, ≤25 g/m²): export prices rose from EUR 1,672/t in 2019 to a peak of EUR 2,353/t in 2023 before settling at EUR 2,213/t in 2025. Import prices followed a similar trajectory, peaking at EUR 2,304/t in 2023.
• 48181090 (heavier, >25 g/m²): export prices moved from EUR 1,780/t in 2019 to EUR 2,244/t in 2022, falling back to EUR 1,964/t in 2025. Import prices showed a comparable pattern.

The price shock was also detected statistically in bilateral trade flows. The volatility analysis identified price shocks of abnormal intensity in 2022 for EU imports from Serbia (abnormality score: 42.0, shift: +46.1%) and for EU exports to Morocco (abnormality score: 42.2, shift: +29.5%).

Domestic production value surged even faster than trade prices

Interestingly, EU domestic production value rose by 86.9% over the period (from EUR 3.53 billion to EUR 6.60 billion), far outpacing the 47.8% growth in production volume. This implies that domestic unit prices roughly doubled — a steeper increase than what is visible in external trade prices — suggesting that retail-level inflation in this category may have been even more pronounced than the trade data alone indicates.

The heavier segment was hit hardest

The sub-segment of heavier toilet paper (48181090, >25 g/m²) experienced a dramatic contraction in imports during the 2019–2021 period. Import volumes in this category fell from 27,202 tonnes in 2018 to just 7,729 tonnes in 2021 — a 72% decline. This was partially offset by growth in the lightweight segment (48181010), which expanded from 88,915 tonnes in 2018 to 126,608 tonnes in 2020. The pattern suggests a possible substitution effect toward lighter-weight rolls, or a shift in sourcing preferences for the heavier product. By 2025, heavier-segment imports had partially recovered to 18,850 tonnes, but remained well below their 2015 level of 26,273 tonnes.

3. Geopolitical Upheaval and the Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships

The decade under review saw significant reshuffling of the EU's trade partner landscape, driven by a combination of geopolitical events, pandemic-era disruptions, and structural shifts in European supply chains.

The United Kingdom remains the EU's largest import source post-Brexit

The United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest source of toilet paper imports throughout the period, accounting for EUR 118.7 million in 2025 (a 25.5% increase from 2015). The UK's position as a supplier was not materially disrupted by Brexit; import volumes remained relatively stable, and the bilateral relationship exhibited the lowest volatility of any major partner (coefficient of variation of 0.061). On the export side, the UK was the EU's third-largest destination at EUR 51.9 million in 2025, though this represented an 11.5% decline from 2015 — a possible reflection of post-Brexit trade frictions and/or increased UK domestic production.

Serbia and Türkiye emerged as fast-growing import partners

Two of the most dramatic growth stories on the import side involved Western Balkan and Turkish suppliers. EU imports from Serbia grew from EUR 12.6 million in 2015 to EUR 28.1 million in 2025 (+123.0%), while imports from Türkiye surged from EUR 4.0 million to EUR 30.6 million (+672.1%). These increases reflect the broader trend of nearshoring and supply chain diversification within the EU's extended neighbourhood. Among EU member states, Bulgaria (+541.5%), Hungary (+148.3%), and Romania (+338.6%) showed the fastest growth in import value, suggesting a pattern of rising toilet paper imports concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe.

Russia–EU trade in toilet paper has collapsed

The most dramatic bilateral shift involved the Russian Federation. EU exports to Russia fell from EUR 7.6 million in 2015 to EUR 0.9 million in 2025 (−88.7%), while imports from Russia effectively ceased (from EUR 0.09 million to virtually zero, −100%). The Russian bilateral trade exhibited the highest volatility of any partner (coefficient of variation of 0.986 for imports and 0.757 for exports). This near-total decoupling mirrors the broader sanctions and counter-sanctions regime that followed the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine became a rapidly growing export destination

In a mirror image of the Russia collapse, EU exports to Ukraine surged from EUR 1.8 million in 2015 to EUR 11.3 million in 2025 (+515.9%). While this remains a relatively small share of total EU exports, the growth rate is extraordinary and likely reflects Ukraine's acute supply disruptions and the EU's solidarity-driven trade support.

Export concentration remained stable; import concentration declined

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by value remained essentially flat at around 2,140–2,156 — indicating a stable, moderately concentrated export structure. By contrast, the import HHI fell from 3,255 in 2015 to 2,745 in 2025 (−15.7%), reflecting the diversification of import sources away from heavy reliance on the United Kingdom and Switzerland toward a broader set of partners including Serbia, Türkiye, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the specialisation front, Portugal, Slovenia, and Croatia emerged as the most specialised EU exporters of toilet paper, while Ireland and Denmark — despite being significant importers — showed near-zero export specialisation, consistent with their roles as net-consuming markets within the EU.

Key bilateral trade relationships at a glance

Conclusion

The EU's toilet paper market over 2015–2025 tells a story of resilience tested by multiple shocks. The EU remains a net exporter, with a robust domestic production base that nearly doubled in value over the decade. However, several structural trends deserve attention. First, export volumes have declined even as import volumes have grown, narrowing the EU's net export advantage. Second, the 2021–2022 price shock — driven by energy and input cost inflation — permanently raised the cost base of the market, with trade prices settling at roughly 35% above their pre-2020 levels. Third, the geopolitical upheaval of recent years has fundamentally reshaped trade partnerships: Russia has been effectively decoupled, Western Balkan and Turkish suppliers have surged, and Ukraine has become a fast-growing destination for EU exports. The overall picture is one of a market that is becoming more price-inflated, more import-intensive, and more geographically diversified — trends that are likely to persist as the EU continues to navigate a complex trade environment.