Market evolution: Paper tissues (CN 481820) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in paper handkerchiefs, cleansing or facial tissues, and paper towels (customs code 481820) over the period 2015–2025. The European Union is a major producer and net exporter of these products, yet the decade has been far from static. Export volumes have declined while values have risen, imports have surged, and the geographic composition of trade partners has shifted markedly — shaped by post-Brexit trade arrangements, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the growing industrial capacity of Western Balkan and Turkish producers. This report is structured around three core findings: the paradox of declining export volumes amid rising unit values, the dramatic reorientation of trade partners, and the structural shift in the sub-product mix of imports.

1. The Price-Volume Divergence: Higher Revenues from Fewer Tonnes

The most striking feature of the EU's external trade in CN 481820 over the past decade is the divergence between volume and value trends. Exports have become more expensive per tonne even as fewer tonnes leave the bloc, while imports have grown in both volume and value.

Export volumes fell by 10% while values rose by 16%

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 481820 declined from 276,050 tonnes to 248,093 tonnes (−10.1%), yet the total export value rose from €485.4 million to €562.9 million (+16.0%). The explanation lies in a sustained increase in export unit prices, which climbed from €1,758/t to €2,269/t (+29.0%). This suggests that the EU has been moving up the value chain — exporting higher-quality or more branded products — or that input cost inflation (energy, pulp, logistics) has been passed through to export prices.

Import growth outpaced exports in both volume and value

Over the same period, EU imports grew from €133.8 million to €209.3 million (+56.5% in value) and from 64,749 tonnes to 91,399 tonnes (+41.2% in volume). Import unit prices also rose, but more modestly — from €2,066/t to €2,290/t (+10.8%). The stronger volume growth of imports compared to exports signals that non-EU producers are gaining market share within Europe, likely driven by cost competitiveness from nearby emerging producers.

The EU's trade surplus has remained broadly stable

Despite the faster growth of imports, the trade balance in value terms barely changed, moving from €351.6 million in 2015 to €353.6 million in 2025 (+0.6%). The EU's net import reliance remained negative (confirming net exporter status), though it moved from −4.3% to −7.5%, reflecting the relative growth of imports. Production data reinforces this picture: EU production volumes grew by 42.4% and production values by 76.4% over the period, indicating that domestic output has kept pace — but that a growing share is consumed internally rather than exported.

2. Geopolitical Disruption and the Rise of Western Balkan Suppliers

The geographic landscape of EU trade in CN 481820 has been reshaped by two major forces: Brexit and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, a set of emerging economies — particularly in the Western Balkans and Türkiye — has rapidly scaled up exports to the EU.

The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner but has become more volatile

The UK is by far the EU's largest trade partner for CN 481820, accounting for 35% of EU import value and 33% of EU export value in 2025. However, the post-Brexit trade relationship has introduced new frictions. EU exports to the UK grew modestly (from €173.3M to €185.8M, +7.2%), while UK exports to the EU rose from €73.8M to €88.0M (+19.3%). Notably, price shocks detected in 2022 (abnormality index 102.4, with a 40% price shift) suggest that supply chain adjustments following Brexit and the energy crisis amplified cost pressures on this route.

EU exports to Russia collapsed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine

One of the most dramatic shifts in the data concerns Russia. EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €23.2 million in 2015 to just €2.6 million in 2025 (−88.6%). This collapse is consistent with the progressive tightening of EU sanctions and trade restrictions from 2022 onward. The coefficient of variation for this route (0.69) confirms extreme instability, making it one of the most volatile export corridors in the dataset.

Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Türkiye have emerged as major import sources

Perhaps the most significant structural shift has been the rapid rise of imports from nearby emerging economies:

Serbia's growth (+701.5%) is particularly striking. These countries benefit from proximity to the EU single market, lower labour costs, and — in the case of Serbia and Bosnia — preferential trade agreements. The import concentration index (HHI) for value fell from 3,387 to 2,159 (−36.2%), confirming that the EU has significantly diversified its import sources away from historical dependence on the UK and Switzerland.

EU exporters are reorienting toward Switzerland and North Africa

On the export side, the EU has compensated partly for the loss of the Russian market by growing sales to Switzerland (from €88.0M to €129.4M, +47.1%) and Morocco (from €15.1M to €19.1M, +26.8%). The UK, Switzerland, and Norway together account for the vast majority of EU exports, indicating that the EU's export market remains concentrated among wealthy, geographically proximate economies. The export concentration HHI remained essentially flat (1,934 to 1,920), underscoring that export diversification has been limited.

3. The Hand-Towel Import Surge and Shifting Sub-Product Dynamics

CN 481820 is a bundled heading encompassing three sub-products: handkerchiefs and facial tissues (48182010), hand towels in rolls ≤36 cm (48182091), and other hand towels (48182099). The import and export patterns diverge sharply across these segments.

Hand-towel imports in rolls have more than doubled

The most dynamic import segment has been 48182091 (hand towels in rolls ≤36 cm). Its import volume grew from 20,614 tonnes in 2015 to 43,978 tonnes in 2025 (+113.3%), and its import value nearly tripled from €33.8 million to €98.6 million (+191.6%). This segment now accounts for nearly half of all CN 481820 imports by volume, up from about a third in 2015. The growth likely reflects demand from the away-from-home (AfH) segment — hotels, restaurants, offices — where rolled hand towels are the standard format, and where non-EU producers have become increasingly competitive.

Facial tissue imports have declined

In contrast, imports of 48182010 (handkerchiefs, cleansing or facial tissues) fell from 29,983 tonnes to 20,494 tonnes (−31.6%). Their value also declined from €70.0 million to €58.7 million. The unit price of this sub-product was notably volatile, spiking to €3,168/t in 2023 before retreating to €2,862/t in 2025, suggesting supply disruptions or quality-mix changes. The decline in facial tissue imports may reflect increased EU domestic production capacity for these consumer-facing products, which tend to have stronger brand loyalty and proximity advantages.

Export volumes are declining across all sub-products

On the export side, all three segments saw volume declines between 2015 and 2025:

However, unit export prices rose significantly for all segments, particularly for 48182010 (from €2,146/t to €2,814/t, +31.1%) and 48182091 (from €1,676/t to €2,221/t, +32.5%). The specialisation data shows that Italy (RCA 2.54) and Poland (RCA 2.11) are the most specialised EU exporters, together accounting for over a third of EU production — and it is likely their product mix that is shifting toward higher-value-added goods.

Germany and Italy are the backbone of EU production

The EU production landscape is dominated by Germany and Italy, which are also the top two EU exporters by value (€146.0M and €135.3M respectively in 2025). Poland's emergence as the fifth-largest exporter (€32.5M, +73.8% over the period) reflects the broader trend of Central and Eastern European countries building competitive paper-product industries. Meanwhile, Ireland has become the largest EU importer (€72.9M, +51.9%), despite having an RCA of just 0.0006, confirming its role as a consumption market rather than a production hub.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in paper tissues and hand towels over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation beneath surface-level stability. While the trade balance has remained in surplus and production has grown robustly, the composition of trade has shifted profoundly. Export volumes are declining but unit values are rising, pointing to a move toward higher-value products. Imports are surging — especially in the hand-towel segment — driven by competitive producers in the Western Balkans and Türkiye. Geopolitical shocks have redrawn the trade map: Russia has virtually disappeared as an export destination, while import diversification away from the UK and Switzerland has reduced concentration risk. The EU remains self-sufficient in this product category, but the growing import penetration ratio and the rapid rise of nearby low-cost producers suggest that the competitive landscape will continue to evolve. Policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor whether the current trend of declining export volumes accelerates, as it could signal a gradual erosion of the EU's external competitiveness even as domestic demand absorbs more local production.