Market evolution: Tobacco cigarettes (CN 24022090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in tobacco cigarettes (CN 24022090, excluding clove cigarettes) over the period 2015–2025. The EU has historically been a major net exporter of this product, yet the decade under review has witnessed a pronounced structural contraction in traded volumes alongside significant geographic reorientation of both export and import flows. Drawing on Eurostat-based customs data, the analysis below identifies three overarching dynamics: (1) a steep volume decline accompanied by rising unit values, (2) a dramatic reshaping of trade partner and intra-EU exporter landscapes, and (3) shifts in supply concentration and price volatility that carry strategic implications for the EU's tobacco trade position.

1. A Market in Volume Contraction but Unit-Value Expansion

EU exports have fallen sharply in volume while unit prices have climbed to record levels

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's cigarette export quantity declined from 138,483 tonnes to 79,162 tonnes — a drop of 42.8%. Over the same period, the average export price per tonne rose from €18,345 to €26,664, an increase of 45.3%. In supplementary-unit terms (thousand pieces), the pattern is similar: exports fell from 125.6 billion items to 78.8 billion items (–37.3%), while the per-thousand-item price rose from €20.23 to €26.80 (+32.5%). This combination of declining volumes and rising prices is consistent with the well-documented trend of shrinking global cigarette consumption being partially offset by premiumisation, higher excise-driven retail prices, and a shift toward higher-value product mixes.

Source: General Overview — trade

Domestic production has contracted even more steeply than exports

EU cigarette production, measured in number of items, fell from 801.7 billion pieces in 2015 to 525.5 billion in 2025 (–34.5%). In value terms the decline was even more dramatic: from €14.8 billion to €5.1 billion (–65.4%). This production collapse, which outpaces the export decline in value, suggests that part of the output reduction has been absorbed by falling intra-EU and domestic consumption, while the remaining export-oriented production has shifted toward higher-margin products.

Source: Production volumes

Imports have grown modestly in volume and significantly in value

EU cigarette imports from non-EU countries rose from 8,015 tonnes (€145.5 million) in 2015 to 9,272 tonnes (€219.6 million) in 2025, representing increases of 15.7% in quantity and 50.9% in value. The import unit price climbed from €18,158/t to €23,682/t (+30.4%). Despite this growth, imports remain a small fraction of exports: the EU's net import reliance stood at –61.3% in 2025 (i.e., a strong net-export position), deepening from –2.8% in 2015 as the trade surplus, while narrowing in absolute terms to €1.89 billion from €2.39 billion, grew relative to the smaller import base.

Source: General Overview — trade

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reshuffling of Trade Flows

Brexit has redrawn the EU–UK cigarette trade relationship

The most striking single-country change concerns the United Kingdom. Before Brexit, the UK was by far the EU's largest source of cigarette imports, accounting for €113.0 million in 2015. By 2025, imports from the UK had collapsed to just €0.6 million (–99.4%). Similarly, Ireland's imports — heavily linked to UK-origin supply chains — fell from €18.9 million to €0.2 million (–99.0%). On the export side, the UK remained a relatively stable destination, moving from €251.6 million to €266.7 million (+6.0%), suggesting that the EU's direct cigarette shipments to the UK were less affected than the reverse flow.

Source: Top partners

Western Balkans and Türkiye have filled the import vacuum

The void left by the UK was substantially filled by Türkiye (from €8.5 million to €98.8 million, +1,061%) and Serbia (from €1.8 million to €90.4 million, +5,064%). North Macedonia also expanded from €2.0 million to €15.2 million. These three Western Balkan/Turkish origins now collectively supply the vast majority of EU cigarette imports, reflecting both the relocation of manufacturing capacity to lower-cost near-shore locations and the role of these countries as re-export or processing hubs for multinational tobacco companies.

Export destinations have shifted away from the Gulf and Japan toward Russia and Africa

Among export partners, the most notable declines were registered with traditional Middle Eastern and Asian markets:

Source: Top partners

The collapse in Saudi and UAE shipments likely reflects both stricter local tobacco regulation and the development of domestic or regional manufacturing. Japan's near-total withdrawal aligns with the country's declining smoking rates and the rise of heated tobacco products. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation grew from €35.4 million to €118.4 million (+234.2%), and Libya remained stable at approximately €93 million. These shifts point to a reorientation toward markets with sustained conventional-cigarette demand.

Within the EU, Germany's dominance has eroded while Poland, Lithuania, and Romania have surged

The redistribution of export leadership among EU Member States is equally striking:

Source: Top reporters

Germany's export value fell by 67.9%, from €1.31 billion to €420.5 million, while Poland overtook it as the EU's leading cigarette exporter at €562.1 million. Lithuania and Romania also expanded dramatically. This eastward shift of the EU's export base is consistent with multinational tobacco manufacturers relocating production toward lower-cost Central and Eastern European facilities. Specialisation data for 2025 confirms this pattern: Lithuania (RSCA 0.79), Portugal (0.76), and Poland (0.72) are the most specialised EU exporters of cigarettes.

3. Declining Concentration and Episodic Price Shocks

Export markets have become more diversified while import sourcing has also de-concentrated

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU cigarette exports (by value) fell from 1,135 in 2015 to 557 in 2025 (–50.9%), indicating a significant diversification away from a handful of dominant buyers. Import HHI also declined, from 6,110 to 4,066 (–33.5%), though it remains in the moderately concentrated range owing to the heavy weight of Türkiye and Serbia.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

Volatility is highest for newly emerging trade relationships

Coefficient-of-variation analysis across partner countries reveals that the most volatile import relationships are with newer or smaller suppliers such as China (CV 1.76), North Macedonia (1.35), and Chile (1.12). Among exports, Japan (CV 1.09) and the United Arab Emirates (0.78) display the highest volatility, consistent with the sharp declines observed in those markets. By contrast, the UK export relationship (CV 0.31) and Libya (0.28) have been among the most stable, and Albania (CV 0.17) is the most predictable EU export destination overall.

Source: Volatility

Three notable price shocks were detected in the export data

The shock-detection algorithm identified three significant export-price events:

Source: Supply shocks

The Japan shock in 2018 (+154.3% unit price shift, abnormality score 194.3) likely reflects a compositional effect: as volumes collapsed, remaining shipments may have shifted toward ultra-premium products or smaller, higher-value consignments. The Kuwait shock in 2020 coincides with the onset of COVID-19 disruptions, while the Libya shock in 2022 may relate to the country's ongoing supply-chain instability.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's external trade in tobacco cigarettes has undergone a fundamental structural transformation. Export volumes have nearly halved, but the decline has been partially cushioned by a 45% increase in unit export values, reflecting premiumisation and higher tax-driven price floors in destination markets. Geographically, the UK's departure from the EU single market eliminated the bloc's largest import source virtually overnight, while Türkiye and Western Balkan countries — particularly Serbia and North Macedonia — rapidly filled the gap. On the export side, Germany's historical dominance has given way to Poland and other Central-Eastern European producers, and traditional Gulf and Asian markets have contracted sharply in favour of Russia and stable African destinations. Looking ahead, the continued decline of conventional cigarette consumption worldwide, the growth of alternative nicotine products, and increasingly stringent tobacco-control policies in key markets suggest that volume erosion will persist, even as unit values may continue to rise. The EU's strong net-export position, combined with growing geographic diversification, provides a degree of resilience, but the sector's long-term trajectory points toward further contraction.