Market evolution: Tin waste and scrap (CN 8002) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of EU tin waste and scrap (Customs code 8002) with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The period reveals a profound transformation: while the monetary value of EU trade in this secondary raw material has surged, the physical volumes have contracted sharply. This divergence points to fundamental shifts in market pricing, supply chain structures, and the strategic management of critical raw materials. The EU's role has evolved from a large-volume net importer to a more specialised, high-value trader, with distinct patterns emerging in its sourcing and export relationships.

1. The Value-Volume Paradox: Surging Values Amidst Plunging Physical Flows

The most striking feature of the EU's tin waste and scrap trade over the past decade is the dramatic divergence between value and volume trajectories for both imports and exports. Monetary values have risen to record highs, while physical quantities have declined substantially.

1.1 Import Values Reach New Peaks as Physical Intake Falls

EU imports of tin waste and scrap saw their value increase by 90.4%, from €14.1 million in 2015 to €26.7 million in 2025. This growth occurred despite a 26.8% decline in import quantity over the same period, from 1,617 tonnes to 1,184 tonnes. The average import price consequently surged by 160%, from €8,689 per tonne in 2015 to €22,589 per tonne in 2025, as detailed in the General Overview. This indicates a market where each unit of imported scrap became significantly more expensive, potentially reflecting higher tin content, greater demand, or scarcity.

1.2 Exports Shift from Volume to High-Value Specialisation

The transformation is even more pronounced on the export side. EU export values grew by 86.4% to €6.7 million, but this masks a collapse in export volume of 83.1%, from 1,783 tonnes to a mere 302 tonnes. The average export price exploded by over 1,000%, reaching €22,148 per tonne in 2025. This suggests that the EU's exports have pivoted away from bulk scrap towards niche, high-purity, or highly processed tin waste and scrap streams commanding premium prices.

2. A Geopolitical Reshuffling of Trade Partners

The changing trade dynamics are mirrored in a significant restructuring of the EU's key partners. Traditional partners have seen their share diminish, while new, often geographically distant, suppliers and buyers have emerged, altering the risk profile of the EU's supply chain.

2.2 Import Sources Diversify and Become More Concentrated

The list of top import partners has been partially replaced. The United Kingdom and the United States, while still major partners, saw their import values decline by 66.4% and 79.5% respectively by 2025. In contrast, new key suppliers have risen dramatically. Mexico's imports surged by over 53,000% to become the largest single source by value in 2025 (€10.3 million). Switzerland and Japan also grew substantially, becoming critical nodes. This is reflected in the increased concentration of import value (HHI), which rose from 1,483 to 2,000, indicating a greater reliance on a smaller group of dominant suppliers.

2.3 Exports Reorient Towards Distant, High-Value Markets

EU exports have also reoriented. While the United States remains a stable, high-value destination (€3.9 million), the most significant growth occurred in exports to the Philippines (+1,613% to €1.5 million) and Switzerland (+218% to €1.1 million). The Netherlands' role as a major exporter declined by 48.5%. The export market has become more concentrated by value, with the HHI falling from a very high 6,946 to a still-high 4,168, driven by growing shipments to a select few high-value partners, as shown in the top partners report.

2.4 Intra-EU Specialisation Creates New Export Hubs

Within the EU, export leadership has shifted significantly. Hungary has emerged as the dominant EU exporter, with its shipments growing by 1,847% to €3.9 million in 2025. Conversely, traditional exporters like the Netherlands and Germany saw drastic declines. This aligns with specialisation data showing countries like Romania, Finland, and Czechia developing strong comparative advantages (high RSCA) in this product, potentially becoming key processing hubs for the EU's high-value scrap exports. This internal reshuffling is detailed in the specialisation report.

3. Navigating Volatility and Structural Price Shocks

The market has been subject to significant price volatility and specific supply shocks, particularly in the wake of global disruptions around 2020-2021, which tested the resilience of trade relationships.

3.1 High Price Volatility in Key Import Channels

Coefficient of Variation (CV) analysis reveals high volatility in import prices from several partners. Flows from the United Kingdom (CV: 0.82), the United States (CV: 0.88), and Mexico (CV: 0.77) showed considerable price instability over the period. The most extreme volatility was observed with China (CV: 2.09), indicating a highly unpredictable sourcing relationship. This price volatility underscores the risk inherent in the supply chain.

3.2 Concentrated Shocks in 2021 Mark a Market Turning Point

The year 2021 stands out as a period of acute market disruption. The data identifies several major price shocks:

• Hong Kong: An abnormal price surge of 27.0 points led to a 139.6% price shift.
• United Kingdom: A shock with an abnormality of 22.0 triggered a 64.3% price shift.
• Israel: An abnormality of 6.8 corresponded to a massive 175.1% price shift.

These synchronized shocks across multiple partners in 2021 likely reflect the broader global supply chain crisis, shipping cost inflation, and rising tin prices following the pandemic, which were transmitted directly into the scrap market.

Conclusion

The EU market for tin waste and scrap (CN 8002) has undergone a decade of transformation, moving decisively towards higher value but lower physical volumes. This reflects a strategic shift, possibly driven by stricter waste management regulations, increased domestic recycling efficiency, and a focus on higher-grade secondary materials to support the circular economy. The trade landscape has been geopolitically reshuffled, with new, sometimes volatile, supply lines emerging and internal EU specialisation creating new export hubs. While the market has demonstrated resilience by absorbing major price shocks, the increased concentration of imports and persistent volatility in key partnerships highlight ongoing strategic vulnerabilities. The EU's tin scrap market has evolved into a specialised, high-stakes segment of the critical raw materials economy.