Market evolution: Tin articles (CN 8007) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in articles of tin not elsewhere specified (Combined Nomenclature code 8007) over the period 2015–2025. CN 8007 is a residual heading within Chapter 80 (Tin and articles thereof), covering manufactured tin products excluding unwrought tin (8001), waste and scrap (8002), and bars, rods, profiles and wire (8003). It corresponds to PRODCOM code 25.99.29.60 ("Other articles of tin, n.e.c."). Despite being a relatively small product category, it exhibits several striking dynamics over the decade under review: a sharp decline in traded volumes accompanied by surging unit prices, a profound reconfiguration of partner geography, and a remarkable expansion of EU domestic production. The scope and definitions section of the dashboard provides additional product context.

A Decade of Shrinking Volumes but Rising Values

EU exports collapsed in volume while unit prices nearly doubled

The most prominent feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between traded volumes and unit prices. EU extra-EU exports of CN 8007 fell from 2,111 tonnes in 2015 to just 712 tonnes in 2025, a drop of −66.3% in quantity. Yet the unit value of exports surged from €20,727/t to €41,198/t, a near-doubling (+98.8%). As a result, the decline in export value was contained to −32.9%, with total export revenues moving from €43.8M to €29.4M. The peak export year by value was not the starting year but rather an intermediate period (the maximum reached €63.0M), suggesting a peak-and-decline trajectory rather than a linear trend.

Imports followed a parallel pattern, with a more moderate value decline

EU imports of CN 8007 similarly saw a quantity drop of −49.1%, from 2,212 tonnes down to 1,125 tonnes. The import unit price rose from €11,972/t to €21,552/t (+80.0%), partially compensating the volume loss. Overall import value declined only 8.6%, from €26.6M to €24.3M. Import prices thus remained roughly half the level of export prices in 2025 (€21,552/t vs. €41,198/t), indicating that the EU exports significantly higher-value tin articles than it imports.

The EU trade surplus shrank markedly

The EU consistently maintained a trade surplus in tin articles over the entire period. However, the surplus narrowed dramatically from €17.2M in 2015 to just €5.1M in 2025, a contraction of −70.4%. This reflects the fact that exports declined faster in value terms than imports, driven by the steeper volume erosion on the export side.

These trends are broadly consistent with the global tin market dynamics of the period: tin prices rose sharply from 2020 onward (driven by supply constraints, electrification demand, and post-pandemic disruptions), which mechanically lifted unit values even as physical volumes contracted. At the same time, structural shifts in demand patterns and supply chains likely contributed to the volume declines. Full trade time series are available in the general overview.

A Profound Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships

Import sourcing diversified away from China toward Japan and the United States

China was the EU's dominant import source for tin articles in 2015, supplying €15.0M — more than half of all imports by value. By 2025, Chinese imports had fallen to €6.4M (−57.4%), and China's share had decreased substantially. This decline was offset by dramatic growth from two partners:

• Japan surged from €476K to €5.0M (+942.4%), making it the single largest source by 2025.
• United States grew from €1.9M to €5.0M (+158.7%).

Thailand and the United Kingdom, the next two largest traditional suppliers, both contracted (−35.1% and −31.2% respectively). Türkiye emerged as a minor but fast-growing supplier (€77K → €290K, +277.9%).

This shift is reflected in the import concentration index (HHI), which dropped from 3,615 to 1,755 (−51.5%). An HHI above 2,500 typically signals a highly concentrated market; the halving of this index indicates a significant diversification of EU import sourcing. Japan's emergence is particularly noteworthy: its import volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.80) is higher than China's (0.42) or the US's (0.24), suggesting that this new sourcing relationship, while valuable, may carry more year-to-year instability.

Export destinations shifted decisively toward the United States

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the near-total collapse of exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina — from €10.4M in 2015 to just €171K in 2025 (−98.4%). This single partner accounted for nearly a quarter of EU export value at the start of the period. Exports to the United Kingdom also fell steeply, from €4.8M to €1.5M (−69.4%), likely linked to post-Brexit trade frictions.

The United States became the EU's dominant export market, growing from €8.2M to €10.4M (+26.0%) and accounting for over a third of all exports by 2025. India also emerged as a growing destination (€917K → €1.7M, +80.2%), while Australia experienced a modest decline (−28.4%).

Note: France figures here refer to EU Member State reporting, available in the top reporters section.

The export concentration HHI rose modestly from 1,196 to 1,490 (+24.5%), reflecting the growing weight of the United States as a single dominant destination. This increase in export concentration, combined with the diversification of imports, represents an asymmetric evolution in the EU's risk profile.

Within the EU, France and Austria dominate specialised production

Looking at intra-EU specialisation patterns (RSCA index, 2025 data), France leads with an RSCA of 0.65 and an RCA of 4.70, meaning France's share of EU tin-article exports is nearly five times its share of total EU exports. Austria (RSCA 0.62) and Portugal (RSCA 0.44) follow. Germany, the largest EU exporter by absolute value (€9.4M in 2025), has an RCA close to parity (0.97), indicating that its export strength in this product is roughly proportional to its overall export profile. The full specialisation rankings are available on the specialisation dashboard.

Production Surge, Price Shocks, and Structural Vulnerability

EU domestic production tripled in volume over the decade

One of the most striking findings is the evolution of EU domestic production of tin articles. According to PRODCOM data, production quantity grew from 1,644 tonnes to 6,000 tonnes (+265%) and production value rose from €27.4M to €60.0M (+119.1%). This implies a significant expansion in manufacturing capacity or utilisation within the EU, even as trade volumes (both imports and exports) declined. The divergence between rising production and falling trade volumes suggests that a growing share of EU-produced tin articles is being consumed domestically or traded intra-EU rather than exported to third countries. Production data is available via the production volumes section.

Three notable price shocks were detected in the period

The supply shock analysis identified three significant price shock events:

The China import price shock of 2020 is the most consequential in absolute terms, given that China accounted for 35.6% of import value at the time. The +58.7% price jump coincides with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and global supply-chain disruptions, which severely affected Chinese manufacturing and logistics. The Norway export shock in 2023 (a near-fivefold price increase) is extreme but involves a small value share, suggesting a niche product or a one-off contract rather than a structural shift. The Canada export shock of 2022 aligns with the broader global commodity price inflation of that year.

Partner-specific volatility levels vary considerably. Among import sources, Brazil (CV 1.42) and Taiwan (CV 1.01) show the highest instability, while the United States (CV 0.24) and the United Kingdom (CV 0.36) are the most stable. On the export side, India (CV 1.33) and Canada (CV 1.23) are the most volatile destinations, while Australia (CV 0.26) and New Zealand (CV 0.34) are the steadiest.

The EU remains a net exporter, but export propensity has declined sharply

The EU's net import reliance was negative throughout the period (confirming net exporter status), moving from −14.1% to −24.4%. This seemingly improved position masks an important nuance: it is primarily the result of export volumes declining less slowly than one might expect, combined with the domestic production surge.

More telling are the trade intensity and export propensity indicators. Trade intensity fell from 122% to 71% (−41.8%), and export propensity dropped from 153% to 59% (−61.1%). These steep declines indicate that the EU tin-article sector has become substantially less oriented toward extra-EU markets. The salience analysis confirms that export propensity (score: 70.6) is the most notable vulnerability dimension, followed by trade intensity (62.9).

Conclusion

The EU market for articles of tin (CN 8007) underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The headline finding is a paradox: traded volumes fell by roughly half to two-thirds, yet unit prices doubled — reflecting both global tin-price inflation and a likely shift toward higher-value-added products. The EU's trade surplus, while persistent, narrowed from €17.2M to €5.1M.

The geographic landscape was reshaped dramatically. On the import side, China's dominance eroded (from €15.0M to €6.4M), replaced by a more diversified supply base with Japan and the United States as new major sources. On the export side, the collapse of shipments to Bosnia and Herzegovina (−98.4%) and the United Kingdom (−69.4%) was largely offset by growth to the United States, which became the EU's primary export destination at €10.4M.

Perhaps the most significant structural development is the tripling of EU domestic production (from 1,644 to 6,000 tonnes), which coincided with a sharp decline in export propensity (from 153% to 59%). This suggests a sectoral pivot: the EU is producing more tin articles but channeling a larger share toward its own internal market and less toward extra-EU exports. The net result is an EU tin-article sector that is larger in production terms but less globally integrated, more reliant on a concentrated set of export markets (notably the United States), and exposed to periodic price shocks — as demonstrated by the 2020 disruption in Chinese import prices and the 2022–2023 export price anomalies.