Market evolution: Textile reinforced rubber hoses with fittings (CN 400932) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in vulcanised rubber tubes, pipes and hoses reinforced with textile materials and fitted with fittings (Customs code 400932) over the period 2015–2025. These products — used across automotive, industrial, agricultural and construction applications — occupy an important niche within the broader rubber goods sector (HS Chapter 40). The decade under review has been marked by structural shifts in global supply chains, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical realignments following the war in Ukraine, and evolving trade-policy frameworks. As the data shows, the EU's position in this market has changed significantly: while the bloc remains a net exporter, its trade surplus has narrowed sharply as imports — particularly from emerging suppliers in South-East Europe and East Asia — have surged.

1. The EU's Trade Surplus Is Eroding: Imports Have Grown Far Faster Than Exports

1.1 Exports expanded in value, but mostly through price increases

EU exports to non-EU countries grew from €174.0 million in 2015 to €283.4 million in 2025, a rise of 62.9%. However, this headline figure masks a more modest expansion in physical volumes: exported quantities rose only 16.9%, from 8,967 tonnes to 10,479 tonnes. The bulk of the value increase therefore came from rising unit prices, which climbed 39.4% — from €19,397/t to €27,037/t. This suggests that EU exporters are either shifting toward higher-value product specifications or that input costs (raw materials, energy, labour) have been passed through to export prices.

1.2 Imports exploded in both volume and value

The import side tells a dramatically different story. EU imports surged from €64.9 million to €248.3 million — a 282.7% increase. Imported quantities more than doubled, rising 167.5% from 6,306 tonnes to 16,871 tonnes, while import prices rose 43.0% from €10,288/t to €14,715/t. Crucially, imports now exceed exports in volume terms (16,871 t vs. 10,479 t in 2025), even though in value terms the EU still ships out more than it brings in. The persistent price gap — EU export prices averaging roughly €27,000/t versus import prices of approximately €14,700/t — reflects the quality and brand differentiation that still commands a premium in EU-manufactured rubber hoses.

1.3 The trade surplus has contracted by two-thirds

As a consequence, the EU's trade surplus in this product has shrunk from €109.1 million in 2015 to just €35.1 million in 2025, a contraction of 67.8%. The net import reliance ratio, though still negative (indicating a net-exporter status), has moved from −36.1% to −43.0%, with a trough reaching −114.1% at some point in the period — implying that in at least one year, the EU came close to import parity. This structural shift is captured in the table below.

2. Supply Chains Are Realigning: Serbia and South Korea Erupt as Import Sources While Russia Collapses as an Export Market

2.1 Serbia has become the EU's single largest import supplier — from virtually nothing

The most striking dynamic in the partner data is the meteoric rise of Serbia. In 2015, Serbian imports into the EU stood at just €172,000. By 2025, they had reached €99.9 million — an increase of nearly 58,000%. Serbia is now the EU's largest single source of imports by value, overtaking traditional suppliers. This surge likely reflects a combination of factors: Serbia's proximity to the EU, its candidate-country status granting preferential trade access, relatively low labour costs, and significant foreign direct investment (including from EU-based manufacturers relocating or diversifying production). The volatility of Serbian import flows is notably high, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.00, suggesting that this supply relationship, while now large, remains relatively young and may still be stabilising.

2.2 South Korea and Morocco have also emerged as fast-growing suppliers

South Korea (Republic of) increased its exports to the EU from €5.9 million to €25.5 million (+335%), while Morocco — starting from a negligible base of €4,200 — reached €4.2 million by 2025. Both countries benefit from EU free-trade agreements (the EU-Korea FTA has been in force since 2011, and the EU-Morocco Association Agreement even longer), which have progressively eliminated tariff barriers. The high volatility coefficients for Morocco (CV 1.15) and for other emerging suppliers like Thailand (CV 1.15) and Vietnam (CV 1.08) indicate that these are still developing trade relationships.

2.3 Türkiye remains a large and relatively stable supplier, despite a notable price shock

Türkiye has long been a significant supplier of rubber hoses to the EU, and its exports to the bloc grew from €21.6 million to €55.4 million (+156.3%). A notable price shock was detected in 2018, when Turkish import prices jumped by 38.1% with an abnormality score of 10.5 — the most significant shock event in the dataset. This may reflect currency effects (the Turkish lira depreciated sharply in 2018), cost-push pressures, or shifts in product mix. Importantly, Türkiye is both a major import source and a major export destination for the EU, with EU exports to Türkiye also growing strongly from €11.5 million to €30.3 million (+164.6%), pointing to a deeply integrated bilateral supply chain.

2.4 Russia has effectively disappeared as an EU export market

On the export side, the most dramatic shift is the collapse of EU exports to the Russian Federation. From €6.2 million in 2015, shipments fell to just €575,000 in 2025 — a decline of 90.7%. The peak of Russian exports was €12.6 million, suggesting that Russia was once a meaningful market. The sharp decline — accelerating after 2022 — is almost certainly linked to EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The high volatility coefficient (CV 0.69) reflects this trajectory of boom and bust.

2.5 EU export destinations are diversifying toward emerging markets

Partially compensating for the loss of Russia, EU exporters have found strong growth in South Africa (+190.4%), Brazil (+258.1%), and Türkiye (+164.6%). Exports to the United Kingdom — by far the largest single destination — also continued to grow (+30.1%), and the US market expanded by 40.4%. Exports to China, however, fell by 46.5% (from €29.3 million to €15.7 million), likely reflecting both increased domestic Chinese production and competitive pressure. The EU's export HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) fell from 1,401 to 999, confirming that export destinations have become less concentrated — a sign of healthy diversification. Import concentration, by contrast, has risen from 1,860 to 2,343, indicating growing reliance on a smaller number of suppliers.

3. Central and Eastern Europe Has Become the EU's Production and Export Hub for Rubber Hoses

3.1 Romania and Czechia display the highest export specialisation

A Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 reveals that Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states dominate the EU's export specialisation in CN 400932. Romania leads with an RSCA of 0.83 and a raw RCA of 11.0, followed by Czechia (RSCA 0.68, RCA 5.25), Hungary (0.58, 3.79), Slovakia (0.55, 3.43), and Portugal (0.41, 2.39). These countries' specialisation is underpinned by their strong automotive supplier ecosystems — Romania, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary are all major vehicle-assembly hubs — which generate sustained demand for rubber hose assemblies.

3.2 The same CEE countries have driven the EU's export growth

The contribution of these CEE exporters to the EU's overall export performance is substantial. Germany remains the largest single EU exporter (€92.0 million, +14.3%), but it is the CEE members that have registered the fastest growth:

Romania's exports nearly tripled, Czechia's more than doubled, and France's quadrupled — suggesting that even Western European producers have capitalised on the growing global demand, though from smaller bases.

3.3 CEE countries are also major importers — suggesting complex intra-EU supply chains

Interestingly, the same CEE countries are also among the fastest-growing importers of CN 400932 from outside the EU. Slovakia's extra-EU imports surged by 3,033% (from €1.0 million to €32.3 million), Germany's by 1,015% (from €6.2 million to €68.9 million), Spain's by 826%, and Romania's by a more modest 5.1%. This dual role — as both significant exporters and importers — is consistent with integrated supply chains in which partially processed rubber hose assemblies cross borders multiple times during production and assembly. Germany's position as both the EU's largest exporter and its largest extra-EU importer (€68.9 million) underscores this hub function.

3.4 EU production has nearly doubled, but the import share is rising

EU production of rubber hose assemblies (Prodcom 22.19.30.70) grew from 41.2 million kg (€536.4 million) in the first year of available data to 80.7 million kg (€1,398.4 million) in the last — volume growth of 95.7% and value growth of 160.7%. Yet imports have grown even faster, and the trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) rose from 61.0% to 77.3%. Export propensity also climbed from 51.3% to 68.5%. The EU's rubber hose sector is thus becoming more trade-oriented overall, but the growth in imports is outpacing the growth in exports, gradually eroding the bloc's self-sufficiency in this product category.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for textile-reinforced rubber hoses with fittings (CN 400932) has undergone a significant structural transformation. The EU retains a net-exporter status, but its trade surplus has narrowed by two-thirds as imports — driven especially by Serbia's extraordinary emergence, South Korea's sustained gains, and Türkiye's continued strength — have far outpaced export growth. On the export side, the collapse of the Russian market has been more than offset by diversification toward the UK, the US, South Africa, and Brazil, resulting in a healthier (less concentrated) export portfolio. Within the EU, Central and Eastern European member states — particularly Romania, Czechia, Slovakia, and France — have cemented their role as the bloc's comparative-advantage holders, leveraging their deep integration into European automotive and industrial supply chains. While EU production volumes have nearly doubled, the rising trade intensity signals that the market is increasingly open to global competition. Looking ahead, the key question is whether the pace of import growth — particularly from Serbia and other near-shoring locations — will continue to erode the EU's surplus, or whether EU producers can defend their position through higher-value, higher-technology product offerings.