Market evolution: Metal reinforced rubber hoses with fittings (CN 400922) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in vulcanised rubber tubes, pipes, and hoses, reinforced or combined only with metal and with fittings (Combined Nomenclature code 400922) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis is based on annual trade data between the EU and non-EU countries, focusing on identifying key trends in value, volume, pricing, market concentration, and partner dynamics. The period under review is characterised by significant growth in the overall value of trade, major shifts in key partnerships, and a notable increase in EU production capacity, all within a context of changing global trade patterns.

Sustained value growth driven by price escalation and resilient volume

The EU's external trade in product 400922 has expanded substantially over the decade, with the value of both exports and imports more than doubling. This growth, however, is primarily attributable to rising unit prices rather than a proportional increase in traded volumes, indicating a shift towards higher-value product segments or inflationary pressures in the sector.

Strong export performance underpinned by price increases

EU exports grew from approximately €158 million in 2015 to over €270 million in 2025, a 70.8% increase. In contrast, the exported volume (net mass) rose by only 9.2%, from 11,129 tonnes to 12,155 tonnes. Consequently, the average export price per tonne surged by 56.3%, climbing from €14,220 to €22,223. This strong pricing power suggests the EU is increasingly exporting more specialised or higher-quality hoses.

Import growth reflects both demand and price dynamics

Imports followed a similar trajectory in value, increasing by 79.8% from €53 million to €95 million. However, unlike exports, import volumes grew more robustly (by 54.2%), rising from 5,809 tonnes to 8,957 tonnes. The average import price per tonne increased by a more modest 16.6% over the period. This indicates that while the EU is importing more product, it is doing so from sources with lower average price points than its exports, contributing to a widening trade surplus. The EU's trade balance for this product grew from €106 million to €176 million (+66.4%).

Geopolitical and economic shifts redefine key trade partnerships

The decade witnessed a significant reconfiguration of the EU's major trading partners for this product, with trade flows being reshaped by geopolitical events, Brexit, and changing industrial demand in third countries.

Export markets: Diversification away from Russia and the Middle East, strengthening ties with Western allies

The United Kingdom and the United States remained the EU's top two export destinations, though their growth patterns differed. Exports to the UK grew by 41.1%, while those to the US saw marginal growth (2.1%). The most dramatic changes occurred elsewhere:

• Exports to Brazil skyrocketed by 203.8%.
• Exports to Switzerland increased by 69.1%.
• In contrast, exports to the Russian Federation fell by 62.0%, and those to Saudi Arabia declined by 40.1%.

This shift is likely influenced by sanctions on Russia and varying demand cycles in the Middle East, while the surge in exports to Brazil points to strong growth in that market. The volatility of trade with partners like Russia (Coefficient of Variation: 0.35) and Saudi Arabia (CV: 0.52) is notably high.

Import sources: China's dominance grows as Switzerland's role diminishes

China solidified its position as the primary source of EU imports, with its share growing from €22 million to €37 million (+66.4%). The United States also became a much more significant supplier, with imports growing by 118.0% to €16 million. Conversely, imports from Switzerland collapsed by 67.0%, falling from €4.7 million to €1.6 million. Türkiye emerged as a notable new supplier, with imports doubling to €4.1 million. The import concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index on value) decreased from 2,415 to 2,138, indicating a slight diversification away from the most dominant suppliers.

Internal EU market dynamics: Increased production capacity and export-oriented specialisation

Behind the aggregate trade figures, the internal structure of the EU market reveals a story of expanded production, evolving specialisation among Member States, and a strengthened capacity to export.

EU production has expanded dramatically

According to available production data, EU production of this product increased by 95.7% in volume (from 41.2 million kg to 80.7 million kg) and 160.7% in value (from €536 million to €1.40 billion) between the first and last year of data. This robust growth in domestic manufacturing capacity underpins the EU's strong export performance and improving trade surplus.

Specialisation is concentrated in Central and Western Europe

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage shows that production and export specialisation in 2025 was highest in:

Germany, while not the most specialised, remains the absolute production and export powerhouse, accounting for 27.7% of EU production value and 26.4% of extra-EU export value in 2025. The export concentration HHI on value fell from 861 to 556, indicating that export activity is becoming more distributed among Member States like the Netherlands and Poland, which saw extraordinary export growth of 592% and 818% respectively.

The EU strengthens its position as a net exporter

The net import reliance metric remained negative throughout the period, confirming the EU is a consistent net exporter. The ratio became more negative (from -36% to -43%), meaning exports grew proportionally faster than imports relative to the domestic market size. This is corroborated by the rising export propensity, which increased from 51% to 69%, indicating that a larger share of EU production is destined for external markets.

Conclusion

The period 2015–2025 has been one of significant growth and structural change for the EU's trade in metal-reinforced rubber hoses with fittings. The EU has successfully leveraged substantial growth in domestic production capacity to become a more dominant net exporter, with trade value growth significantly outpacing volume growth, reflecting a shift to higher-value-added products. Trade relationships have undergone a major realignment, marked by a pivot away from politically sensitive partners like Russia and towards stronger ties with the Americas and Switzerland. Internally, while Germany remains the central node, export activity is becoming more diversified across the EU. Overall, the data points to a sector that has increased its competitive advantage and global market presence over the past decade, characterised by strategic export orientation and evolving international partnerships.