Market evolution: Textile machinery parts (CN 8448) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 8448 — auxiliary machinery and parts for textile manufacturing equipment, including dobbies, jacquards, spindles, card clothing, shuttles, healds, and hosiery needles. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU has remained a significant net exporter of these products, but the data reveals a market undergoing substantial structural transformation: declining trade volumes, a pronounced shift toward higher-value goods, growing geographic concentration in export destinations, and evolving competitive dynamics among EU Member States. The general overview provides the foundation for the analysis that follows.

1. Declining volumes amid rising unit values: A structural market shift

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in CN 8448 products over the decade is the simultaneous contraction in traded volumes and the persistent increase in unit prices — a pattern observable on both the import and export sides.

1.1 Export volumes have nearly halved while export values proved more resilient

Between the first and last years of the data window, EU exports of textile machinery parts fell by 42.7% in quantity (from 48,366 tonnes to 27,726 tonnes) but only 13.8% in value (from €1.43 billion to €1.23 billion). The gap between these two figures is explained by a dramatic increase in average export prices, which rose by 50.3% — from €29,578 per tonne to €44,460 per tonne. The minimum export value was recorded in 2020 (€1.21 billion), coinciding with the global disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, while the maximum was reached in 2018 (€1.68 billion).

Source: General overview — trade

This dynamic is consistent with a market in which the EU is progressively exiting the production of standardised, lower-value components while retaining — or consolidating — its position in higher-value, more specialised segments such as jacquards, precision card clothing, and advanced auxiliary machinery.

1.2 Import volumes followed a comparable downward trajectory

EU imports from non-EU countries declined by 42.1% in volume (from 32,196 tonnes to 18,628 tonnes) and 27.2% in value (from €393 million to €286 million). Average import prices rose by 25.7% (from €12,216/t to €15,359/t), though the pace of unit-value appreciation was notably slower than on the export side. The minimum import value was recorded in 2023 (€281 million), while the maximum occurred in 2018 (€496 million), mirroring the export peak.

Source: General overview — trade

The fact that import prices grew more slowly than export prices contributed to a widening of the EU's price premium: in 2025, EU exports commanded nearly three times the unit value of imports (€44,460/t vs. €15,359/t), up from a ratio of roughly 2.4:1 in 2015. This growing gap underscores the EU's specialization in technologically advanced, higher-margin products within this category.

1.3 The 2020 shock and subsequent recovery were asymmetric

The COVID-19 pandemic hit both exports and imports in 2020, with export values dropping to €1.21 billion (the decade's minimum) and import values falling to €357 million. However, the recovery was uneven: exports rebounded strongly in 2021–2022 before retreating again in 2023–2025, while imports recovered more modestly and continued to decline from 2023 onward. Production data further confirms this pattern: EU production of CN 8448 products fell by 80.9% in volume (from 42.8 million kg to 8.2 million kg) and 26.6% in value (from €2.42 billion to €1.77 billion), with the lowest production value recorded in 2020 (€1.25 billion).

Source: Production volumes

2. Geographic shifts: Concentration of exports and diversification of imports

The trade data reveals contrasting geographic dynamics on the import and export sides. Export destinations became more concentrated over the decade, while import sources diversified slightly — each with distinct implications for EU industry.

2.1 China consolidated its position as the EU's top export destination

China was the EU's largest export market for textile machinery parts throughout the period, and its share grew. Export values to China rose from €301 million in 2015 to €363 million in 2025 — an increase of 20.7% — even as total EU exports declined. By contrast, other major destinations saw significant contractions:

Source: Top partners by value — exports

China's growing share reflects the continued expansion of its textile manufacturing sector, which increasingly requires high-precision European auxiliary machinery and components. The decline in exports to India — the second-largest market — is notable, potentially linked to India's own push for domestic textile machinery production under "Make in India" policies. Exports to Switzerland also declined sharply (−45.2%), likely reflecting the reconfiguration of supply chains within the broader European industrial ecosystem.

The export concentration HHI rose from 857 to 1,210 (+41.2%), confirming that export markets became more concentrated over the decade. This increasing dependency on a smaller number of destinations heightens the EU's exposure to demand-side risks in those specific markets.

2.2 Switzerland remained the largest single import source but declined sharply

On the import side, Switzerland was the dominant supplier for much of the period, with import values starting at €111 million in 2015 but falling to €65 million in 2025 — a decline of 41.7%. China, the second-largest source, also declined from €143 million to €105 million (−26.5%), while imports from Türkiye actually rose from €9 million to €11 million (+18.0%).

Source: Top partners by value — imports

The decline in Swiss-origin imports is particularly noteworthy, as Switzerland is home to major textile machinery companies. This may reflect the shifting of production footprints or reclassification of intra-group transactions following Brexit-related supply chain adjustments. The import HHI fell slightly from 2,256 to 2,036 (−9.7%), indicating a modest diversification of supply sources, though import markets remained considerably more concentrated than export markets.

2.3 EU Member State specialisation is highly uneven

Within the EU, Germany dominates both exports and imports of CN 8448 products, though its share has declined:

Source: Top reporters by value — exports

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data confirms this unevenness. In 2025, Portugal (RSCA 0.57), Czechia (0.55), and Bulgaria (0.34) were the most specialised EU producers relative to their overall export profiles, while Luxembourg, Estonia, Latvia, Malta, and Greece showed virtually no specialisation. Notably, Czechia and Austria were among the few Member States to increase their export values over the period, suggesting a gradual eastward rebalancing of European textile machinery production.

Source: Most specialised reporters

3. Price shocks, volatility, and the EU's deepening export dependence

Beyond the structural trends, the data reveals periods of acute price volatility and identifiable supply-side shocks that affected the EU's trade position in this sector.

3.1 The EU's trade surplus remained large but its net export reliance deepened

The EU maintained a substantial trade surplus throughout the period, falling moderately from €1.04 billion in 2015 to €947 million in 2025 (−8.7%). However, the net import reliance indicator — which is negative for a net exporter — deepened from −55.0% to −80.9%, a change of −46.9%. This means the EU's export orientation intensified significantly: by 2025, the sector was far more dependent on external demand than it was at the start of the period.

Simultaneously, trade intensity rose from 59.3% to 64.7% (+9.2%), and export propensity increased from 52.4% to 59.5% (+13.6%). Taken together, these indicators point to a sector that is increasingly reliant on global markets for its viability — a competitive strength when demand is robust, but a vulnerability during downturns or geopolitical disruptions.

3.2 Several identifiable price shocks affected key trade flows

The volatility analysis detects three notable price shocks over the decade:

The Indian import price shock of 2020 coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic and likely reflects supply disruptions, shipping bottlenecks, and the acute disruption of India's textile sector during lockdowns. The Turkish import price shock of 2023 — with prices more than doubling — may be linked to the severe depreciation of the Turkish lira, which raised the EUR-denominated cost of locally sourced components, or to shifts in product mix. The Egyptian export price spike in 2022 may reflect currency effects or a temporary surge in Egyptian textile investment.

Source: Volatility bars

3.3 Product-level data confirms the move toward higher-value segments

The product segment breakdown reveals that the composition of traded goods evolved over the period. On the export side, the largest segments were:

• 844839 (Parts of HS 8445 machines): Declined from €296M (2015) to €200M (2025), with prices rising from €25,573/t to €40,984/t.
• 844849 (Parts of weaving machines): Relatively stable, from €218M to €240M, with prices rising from €29,881/t to €38,483/t.
• 844811 (Dobbies and jacquards): Declined sharply from €141M to €70M, reflecting the broader contraction in traditional jacquard technology.

On the import side, the most prominent segment was 844849 (weaving machine parts), which peaked at €100M in 2022 before falling to €56M in 2025, while 844831 (card clothing) was among the few import categories to show price resilience, rising from €22,929/t to €28,342/t.

Across nearly all sub-categories, the pattern holds: volumes fell while unit prices rose, reinforcing the interpretation that the EU is consolidating its position in high-value, specialised components while ceding volume-driven segments to lower-cost producers.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in textile machinery parts (CN 8448) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation rather than simple decline. Export and import volumes both contracted by more than 40%, but unit values rose substantially — by over 50% on the export side — indicating that the EU has progressively specialised in premium, technology-intensive products. The trade surplus remained robust at nearly €950 million in 2025, but the sector's dependence on external demand deepened markedly, with export propensity and trade intensity both rising to their highest levels in the period.

Geographically, China emerged as an increasingly critical destination for EU exports, while Switzerland's role as both a supplier and a destination diminished. Within the EU, Germany remained the dominant player, though smaller Member States like Czechia and Austria gained ground. The detection of sharp price shocks — particularly in trade with India and Türkiye — highlights the sector's vulnerability to geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that the EU's competitive advantage in CN 8448 products lies in high-value, specialised components rather than volume. The key risks are the growing concentration of export markets (rising HHI), the deepening export reliance of the sector, and the potential for further supply chain disruptions in an increasingly fragmented global trading environment.