Market evolution: Leather and footwear machinery (CN 8453) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in leather and footwear machinery (Combined Nomenclature code 8453) with non-EU countries over the period from 2015 to 2025. The product category covers machinery for preparing, tanning, or working hides and leather, as well as for making or repairing footwear and other leather articles. The EU market for this specialized equipment has undergone a significant contraction over the decade, characterized by falling trade volumes, a strengthening of unit values, and notable shifts in geographical trade patterns and product composition.

I. A Contracting Market with Rising Unit Values

The overall EU trade in leather and footwear machinery with the world has declined substantially between 2015 and 2025. While the EU remains a major net exporter, both export and import volumes and values have fallen, indicating a structural shift in the global market. A key counter-trend is the significant increase in average unit values, suggesting a move towards higher-value or more technologically advanced machinery.

EU exports have experienced a pronounced decline in volume and value.

EU exports to non-EU countries fell from €319.5 million in 2015 to €218.7 million in 2025, a decrease of 31.6%. The decline in physical volume was even steeper, with export quantities dropping by 48.5%, from 24,034 tonnes to 12,374 tonnes. This contraction was not uniform; exports peaked at €392.8 million in 2017 before entering a general downward trend.

Source: EU trade overview

Import trends mirror the export contraction, albeit from a much smaller base.

EU imports from non-EU countries also fell, by 37.3% in value (from €38.3 million to €24.0 million) and by 59.7% in quantity. The EU's traditional trade surplus in this sector remained robust but narrowed from €281 million in 2015 to €195 million in 2025. Net import reliance remained strongly negative, confirming the EU's position as a consistent net exporter throughout the period.

The decline in volume was offset by a sharp rise in average unit prices for both exports and imports.

A critical feature of the period is the substantial increase in the average price per tonne. For exports, the price rose by 32.9% to €17,661 per tonne, while import prices surged by 55.3% to €8,773 per tonne. This indicates that the machinery traded is becoming more valuable per unit of weight, potentially reflecting a shift towards more sophisticated, integrated, or specialized equipment, or increases in input costs. Price volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation, was moderate for key partners like China and Mexico in exports, but significantly higher for imports from countries like Ukraine and the United Kingdom.

II. Shifting Geographical and Structural Dependencies

The contraction of the market has been accompanied by a notable reshuffling of the EU's main trading partners and a change in the competitive landscape within the bloc. While traditional partners remain important, their relative shares have evolved, and the structure of trade has become slightly more diversified on the export side.

Italy's dominance in exports has weakened, while Germany's position has strengthened.

Italy is by far the largest EU exporter and producer of this machinery, but its share has declined. Italy's exports fell by 36.1% from €251.9 million to €160.9 million. In contrast, Germany's exports increased by 53.0% to €37.9 million, becoming a more significant player. This suggests a potential geographical reconfiguration within the EU's production base. The concentration of exports among partners (measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, HHI) increased slightly, indicating a modest concentration on fewer destination markets.

Source: Top EU exporters by value

Key export destinations have shown divergent performance, with Mexico growing while China and India declined.

China and India, two major export markets, saw significant declines in EU machinery sales (by 27.0% and 50.0%, respectively). Conversely, exports to Mexico grew by 28.5%, making it the third-largest market in 2025, up from fourth in 2015. The United States remained the top destination with relatively stable value. On the import side, China is the largest external supplier, but its shipments to the EU halved. The import market is more fragmented, with a lower HHI, though it has become more concentrated over the period.

Source: Top trade partners by value

EU internal specialization is highly pronounced, with Italy holding a dominant revealed comparative advantage.

The market structure analysis for 2025 shows extreme specialization within the EU. Italy has a very high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.79, confirming its role as the bloc's specialist producer and exporter. In contrast, major economies like France, Belgium, and Sweden have negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers or have no significant specialization in this machinery. This aligns with production data showing Italy accounts for the vast majority of EU output by value.

III. Product-Level Dynamics and the Aftermath of Shocks

A detailed breakdown of the product sub-categories reveals that the overall market contraction has not been evenly distributed. The parts segment has shown resilience, while machinery for footwear and other leather articles has suffered steeper declines. The period also features distinct price shocks in specific bilateral trade flows.

The decline was most severe for machinery for making footwear (845320), while parts (845390) proved more stable.

Export data shows that the value of footwear machinery (CN 845320) shipped from the EU fell by 59.1%, from €89.2 million to €36.5 million. In contrast, the value of exported parts (CN 845390) increased by 18.1% to €90.6 million, making it the largest sub-category by value in 2025. This pattern suggests that while demand for new production machinery has fallen, the maintenance, repair, and upgrading of existing machinery (requiring parts) has been a more persistent source of revenue. Import trends were similar, with parts also showing a relative increase in value share.

Source: Product segment breakdown

Production volumes in the EU have halved, confirming a long-term structural decline.

Complementing the trade data, EU production volumes for this machinery category fell dramatically from 90,173 units in 2015 to 35,955 units in 2025 (-60.1%). Production value also decreased by 37.6% to €391.7 million. This indicates that the decline in trade is rooted in a reduced scale of manufacturing activity within the EU, consistent with global shifts in leather and footwear production.

Several isolated price shocks occurred in bilateral trade, affecting specific partners and years.

The volatility and shocks analysis identifies notable price shocks. The most significant were a +87% price spike in imports from Thailand in 2017, a +96% price increase in exports to Argentina in 2021, and a +40% price jump in exports to China in 2023. These events, while impactful on specific flows, were not systemic and did not reverse the overarching trends of declining volumes and rising average prices.

Conclusion

The EU market for leather and footwear machinery (CN 8453) experienced a pronounced contraction from 2015 to 2025, characterized by falling trade volumes and a significant reduction in EU production. However, this decline was mitigated by a substantial increase in average unit values, indicating a market shift towards more expensive, likely more specialized or technologically advanced equipment. Geographically, while Italy's central role eroded somewhat, Germany gained ground, and key trade partnerships evolved with growth in markets like Mexico and a decline in China and India. Within the product mix, the parts segment demonstrated resilience, highlighting ongoing demand for servicing existing machinery fleets. The overall picture is one of a maturing sector consolidating on fewer, higher-value activities within the EU, against a backdrop of reduced global demand for new machinery.