Market evolution: Supported catalysts (CN 38151990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU trade in supported catalysts not elsewhere specified (CN 38151990) — a residual sub-heading of catalytic preparations excluding those with precious metals or nickel as active substances — experienced profound structural change over the 2015–2025 decade. The EU maintained a strong net-exporter position throughout, with trade values growing healthily. However, behind these headline figures lies a far more complex story: physical volumes declined sharply, unit values more than doubled, the geography of trade was fundamentally redrawn, and EU domestic production roughly tripled in quantity. This report examines these dynamics across three thematic sections.

1. Soaring Unit Values Disguise a Contraction in Physical Trade

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is a pronounced divergence between trade values and trade volumes. Both EU exports and imports grew in nominal value while shrinking dramatically in physical weight, pointing to large increases in unit prices — and possibly a shift toward higher-value specialty products.

EU export values rose modestly while volumes fell by half

Between the first and last available years, EU export values grew from €952 million to €1,077 million (+13.1%). Yet export quantities fell from 82,426 tonnes to 41,495 tonnes (−49.7%). This implies that the average export price more than doubled, rising from €11,554 per tonne to €25,961 per tonne (+124.7%).

Import prices nearly tripled as volumes also contracted

EU import values increased from €291 million to €525 million (+80.5%), while import volumes declined from 33,502 tonnes to 20,631 tonnes (−38.4%). The resulting import unit price surged from €8,679 per tonne to €25,442 per tonne (+193.1%) — an even steeper increase than on the export side.

The EU's trade surplus narrowed despite higher values

Thanks to persistently higher exports than imports, the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period. However, the surplus shrank from €662 million in the first year to €552 million in the last (−16.5%), as import values grew faster (+80.5%) than export values (+13.1%). The net import reliance remained strongly negative (around −100%), confirming that the EU is a consistent net exporter of these catalysts.

The convergence of import and export unit prices — which were almost equal by 2025 at roughly €25,000–26,000/t — suggests either that the product mix being traded is becoming more homogeneous, or that global price inflation in this category has compressed earlier differentials.

2. Geographic Reorientation: New Suppliers Enter as Traditional Partners Retreat

Over the decade, the geography of EU trade in supported catalysts was fundamentally redrawn. On the import side, North Macedonia emerged from near-zero to become the EU's largest single supplier by value, while traditional sources like the United States and the United Kingdom lost ground. On the export side, China and the Middle East gained importance, while Russia's role collapsed — likely reflecting geopolitical sanctions.

North Macedonia became the EU's top import source

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the rise of North Macedonia, whose exports to the EU surged from a mere €20 to €309 million. By the end of the period, North Macedonia had overtaken the United States as the EU's largest extra-EU supplier. The United States, which began the period as the leading import source at €193 million, saw its share fall to €106 million (−44.7%). The United Kingdom also contracted sharply, from €53 million to €18 million (−66.1%), a trend likely accelerated by Brexit-related trade frictions.

China also emerged as a more significant supplier, growing from €4 million to €25 million (+488.7%), and Korea, Republic of more than doubled from €3 million to €8 million. These shifts suggest a broadening of the EU's import base and a relative decline in reliance on Anglo-American suppliers.

Import concentration decreased, reflecting supplier diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 4,793 to 3,955 (−17.5%). While still indicating a moderately concentrated import market, the downward trend confirms that the EU is sourcing from a more diversified set of partners than it did a decade ago.

EU exports shifted away from Russia and the Gulf toward China

On the export side, the most notable developments were:

• China grew from €91 million to €165 million (+81.4%), becoming the second-largest export destination after the United States.
• Russia collapsed from €64 million to €16 million (−75.2%), almost certainly reflecting EU sanctions imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• Oman fell sharply from €31 million to €2.8 million (−90.8%).
• The United States remained the top export market, increasing from €149 million to €204 million (+37.1%).
• The United Arab Emirates and Qatar also maintained or grew their positions, at €39 million and €65 million respectively.

Price shocks were detected in several bilateral trade flows

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shocks:

• Oman (imports, 2018): An extreme price spike with an abnormality score of 211.6 and a shift of +3,008%, though the value share was negligible.
• United Arab Emirates (exports, 2022): A price shock with an abnormality of 140.3 and a shift of +2,034%, affecting 5.4% of export value. This may relate to post-pandemic supply chain disruptions or sanctions-driven re-routing of demand.
• Kazakhstan (exports, 2021): A more moderate price shock (abnormality 40.8, shift +165%) affecting 1.2% of export value.

Among import partners, Oman exhibited the highest overall price volatility (coefficient of variation: 1.71), followed by Norway (1.03) and North Macedonia (0.97). On the export side, the United Arab Emirates showed the greatest volatility (CV: 1.28), followed by Korea, Republic of (0.93) and Oman (0.82).

3. Rapid Production Growth and an Evolving Internal Specialisation Map

Behind the trade data lies a remarkable story of EU industrial expansion. Domestic production of supported catalysts roughly tripled in volume over the period, while several EU member states dramatically reshaped their roles in intra-EU and global trade.

EU production volumes tripled while value grew only modestly

According to production data, EU production quantity surged from 215 million kg to 600 million kg (+178.9%), while production value increased from €2.04 billion to €2.29 billion (+12.5%). This implies that the average domestic production price fell significantly — from roughly €9.5/kg to €3.8/kg. This pattern could reflect a shift toward higher-volume, lower-unit-value catalyst types, capacity expansion by existing producers, or the entry of new producers operating at lower price points.

Germany dominated EU trade but lost ground on both sides

Germany was the largest EU importer by a wide margin at the end of the period, with imports surging from €40 million to €386 million (+868%). This extraordinary growth likely reflects both the North Macedonia supply boom and Germany's role as a gateway for redistribution within the EU. On the export side, Germany remained the top exporter but saw its share decline from €343 million to €294 million (−14.2%), even as Belgium (+77.7%) and especially Poland (+3,439%, from €2 million to €75 million) surged ahead.

Poland emerged as a major exporter, while specialisation patterns diverged

Poland's transformation from a marginal player to the fourth-largest EU exporter is one of the period's most notable developments. According to the specialisation data for 2025, Poland exhibited a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 2.78 and a normalised RCA (RSCA) of 0.47, placing it among the most specialised EU producers alongside Luxembourg (RSCA: 0.79, RCA: 8.53), Denmark (RSCA: 0.48, RCA: 2.87), and Germany (RSCA: 0.29, RCA: 1.83).

At the other end of the spectrum, large member states like Spain (RSCA: −1.00) and Italy (not listed among top specialists) showed little or no specialisation in this product category, suggesting that catalyst production in Europe is geographically concentrated in a handful of countries.

Export concentration rose slightly as intra-EU dynamics shifted

The HHI for export concentration by value increased from 763 to 980 (+28.4%). While exports remained far less concentrated than imports, the upward trend reflects the growing dominance of a smaller number of member states — particularly Germany, Belgium, and Poland — in the EU's outward trade. The trade intensity of the EU in this product remained exceptionally high at around 92%, confirming that this is an industry deeply integrated into global value chains.

Conclusion

The EU trade in supported catalysts (CN 38151990) over 2015–2025 was characterised by three defining dynamics:

1. A dramatic price-volume divergence. Both exports and imports saw physical volumes contract by 40–50% while unit values roughly tripled, suggesting inflationary pressures and a possible shift toward higher-value specialty catalyst formulations. The convergence of import and export unit prices by 2025 (both near €25,000/t) marks a notable change from the 2015 starting point, when exports commanded a premium of roughly 33% over imports.

2. A fundamental reorientation of trade geography. North Macedonia's meteoric rise as the EU's top import supplier, China's growing importance on both the import and export sides, the decline of US and UK share, and Russia's near-collapse as an export market all point to a reshuffling of global catalyst supply chains — driven by a mix of industrial strategy, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.

3. Massive EU production expansion accompanied by internal reshuffling. EU production tripled in volume, Poland emerged as a major exporter, and Belgium consolidated its position, while Germany's export share eroded even as its import role grew enormously. The result is a more specialised but also more concentrated EU production landscape, with Luxembourg, Denmark, Poland, and Germany at the core.

Looking ahead, the EU's strong net-exporter status and diversified supplier base provide resilience, but the continued rise in unit prices and the concentration of production in a few member states warrant close monitoring — particularly as global catalyst demand is expected to grow alongside the energy transition and stricter environmental regulations.