Market evolution: Sunflower meal (CN 230630) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Sunflower meal — classified under CN 230630 as "oilcake and other solid residues resulting from the extraction of sunflower seeds" — is a major protein-rich co-product of the sunflower oil industry, widely used in animal feed across the European Union. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in this product underwent profound structural changes driven by a near-doubling of domestic crushing capacity, the geopolitical disruption of 2022, and a sustained escalation of unit prices.

This report examines three overarching dynamics: the EU's structural shift toward greater production self-sufficiency, the dramatic reshuffling of import supply chains following the collapse of Russian supply, and the new price regime accompanied by persistent vulnerabilities in import reliance.

1. A structural rebalancing: rising EU production narrows the import gap

The most defining trend of the decade is the surge in EU domestic production of sunflower meal, which fundamentally altered the bloc's trade position. While the EU remained a net importer throughout the period, the magnitude of its import deficit shrank materially, and the bloc simultaneously emerged as a more significant exporter.

1.1 EU crushing capacity nearly doubles in volume and quadruples in value

EU domestic production of sunflower meal expanded dramatically over the period:

Production volume peaked at approximately 4.01 Mt in an intermediate year, while production value reached a maximum of over €1.02 billion — likely during the commodity price spike of 2022. The disproportionate rise in value (+313%) relative to volume (+86%) reflects the pass-through of higher sunflower seed and energy costs into meal prices.

Central and Eastern European member states drove this expansion. In 2025, specialisation data shows that Bulgaria (RCA 21.5), Hungary (RCA 11.7), and Romania (RCA 5.5) were the most specialised EU exporters of sunflower meal, consistent with their roles as major sunflower-growing regions with expanding crushing infrastructure.

1.2 Import volumes decline and the trade deficit narrows by a quarter

Against this backdrop of rising domestic output, EU imports from non-EU countries declined:

The trade deficit narrowed by 24.2% in value terms, even as import unit prices rose slightly. Import volumes fell by roughly 567,000 tonnes over the decade. This decline was not uniform across EU member states: the Netherlands more than doubled its imports (from €71m to €158m, +123.8%), becoming the EU's largest importing member state by 2025, while traditional importers such as Spain (−66.6%), Denmark (−77.3%), Italy (−41.5%), and France (−37.4%) sharply reduced their intake.

1.3 The EU emerges as a more export-oriented market

A parallel structural shift occurred on the export side. While export volumes remained broadly stable (from 475,000 to 470,000 tonnes), export values rose by 30.1% to €120m, driven by a 31.5% increase in unit prices (from €194/t to €255/t).

More significantly, the EU's export propensity — the share of available production that is exported — surged from 8.5% to 25.5%, a near-tripling (+198.6%). Similarly, trade intensity (the ratio of trade to apparent consumption) rose from 48.6% to 62.7%. These figures indicate that the EU's sunflower meal market became substantially more internationally integrated, with rising production creating exportable surpluses even as domestic demand continued to grow.

Bulgaria was the EU's leading exporting member state, with exports rising from €21m to €38m (+84.1%). Germany's export growth was particularly striking — from just €624,000 to €30m (+4,695%) — reflecting its evolving role as a processing and re-export hub. Ireland (+297.3%) and Portugal (+348.0%) also recorded outsized growth, though from smaller bases.

2. Geopolitical disruption: the collapse of Russian supply and the diversification response

The second defining dynamic of the period was the dramatic reshuffling of the EU's import partnerships, driven primarily by the effective elimination of Russian supply. This event catalysed a broader diversification effort, redirecting trade flows toward South American and Central Asian origins.

2.1 From second-largest supplier to near-zero: the Russian withdrawal

In 2015, the Russian Federation was the EU's second-largest external supplier of sunflower meal, with imports valued at €157m. Russian imports had peaked at nearly €220m in an intermediate year. By 2025, imports from Russia had collapsed to just €193,000 — a decline of 99.9%.

This withdrawal, which accelerated from 2022 onwards in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the EU's sanctions regime, removed a supply source that had at its peak accounted for roughly one-quarter of the EU's total import value. The speed and completeness of this collapse is one of the most striking features of the entire dataset.

2.2 Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine: the new supply map

The void left by Russia was partially filled by a surge in imports from alternative origins:

Argentina emerged as the most significant replacement, more than tripling its exports to the EU and becoming the bloc's second-largest supplier by 2025. Argentina's large-scale oilseed crushing industry and competitive pricing positioned it well to fill the gap. Kazakhstan recorded the most dramatic proportional increase, growing from less than €1m to over €26m (+3,342%), reflecting its emergence as a transit and production node for Central Asian oilseed products.

Ukraine remained the EU's dominant supplier throughout the period, though its value declined from €413m to €294m (−28.8%). Despite the disruptions caused by the war — including blocked Black Sea ports and logistics challenges — Ukraine's established crushing industry and geographic proximity sustained its leading position. Moldova also gained ground (+141.6%), while Serbia experienced a modest decline (−17.6%).

2.3 Measurable diversification in import concentration

The reshuffling of suppliers is reflected in the EU's import concentration index (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, HHI):

An HHI above 2,500 indicates a highly concentrated market. While imports remained concentrated — driven by Ukraine's dominant share — the decline from 4,568 to 4,149 confirms a meaningful diversification trend. Notably, the index dipped as low as 2,606 at its most diversified point, suggesting a period when the Russian withdrawal and supplier diversification temporarily reduced concentration before new patterns consolidated. The peak concentration (HHI of 5,388) likely coincided with the period of maximum Ukrainian dominance, when alternative suppliers had not yet scaled up.

On the export side, the EU's destination concentration also declined: the export HHI fell from 2,031 to 1,590 (−21.7% by value; −33.3% by volume), indicating that EU exporters broadened their customer base over the decade. The United Kingdom remained the largest single export destination (€25m, −25.5%), but Norway grew from virtually nothing to €28m (+21,381%), and China — though volatile — reached a peak of €171m in an intermediate year before settling at €21m.

3. Price escalation, supply shocks, and persistent import vulnerability

The third major dynamic is the significant rise in unit values, punctuated by identifiable supply shocks in 2021 and 2022, and the persistence of the EU's structural dependence on imported sunflower meal despite its production gains.

3.1 A new price regime takes hold from 2021 onwards

Unit prices for both imports and exports rose significantly over the period, but the trajectory was not linear:

Export prices rose far more steeply than import prices over the period (+31.5% vs +2.9%), suggesting that EU-origin meal commanded a growing premium in later years — potentially reflecting quality differences, logistics costs, or destination-market dynamics. Both flows reached their minimum unit values in earlier years (likely around 2015–2016, during a period of depressed global commodity prices) and their maxima in intermediate years (likely 2022, during the global commodity price spike triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war).

The volatility analysis confirms significant price instability across key partners. For imports, Belarus (CV 1.91), China (CV 1.51), and Brazil (CV 1.47) exhibited the highest price volatility, though these were smaller suppliers. Among major partners, Ukraine (CV 0.30) and Russia (CV 0.40) showed moderate volatility, while Moldova (CV 1.10) and Kazakhstan (CV 0.97) displayed high instability — consistent with their emerging and still-volatile trade relationships.

3.2 Detecting supply shocks: Ukraine in 2021, Türkiye and Morocco in 2022

The data reveals three statistically significant supply shocks:

The Ukraine import shock of 2021 was the most significant event in the dataset, with an abnormality score of 23.2 — indicating a price movement far outside normal statistical bounds. This pre-war shock, which affected imports representing 57.6% of total import value, likely reflected surging global commodity prices, tightening grain and oilseed markets, and early supply-chain stress related to the Black Sea region. The 32.4% price increase on such a large share of imports would have had a material impact on EU feed costs.

The export shocks to Türkiye and Morocco in 2022 — with price shifts of +96.1% and +48.6% respectively — coincide with the post-invasion commodity price spike. These two markets together accounted for nearly 29% of EU export value, meaning that the price shock propagated through the EU's export channels to Mediterranean and Middle Eastern buyers.

3.3 Persistent net import reliance despite structural gains

Despite the structural improvements in production and trade balance, the EU's net import reliance remained broadly unchanged:

The ratio increased modestly (+3.9%) despite the near-doubling of domestic production, indicating that EU demand for sunflower meal grew at least as fast as supply — likely driven by expanding livestock and poultry sectors that rely on protein-rich feed ingredients. The maximum of 59.5% — reached in an intermediate year, most likely 2022 — underscores the acute vulnerability that emerged when Russian supply was abruptly removed and prices surged. The minimum of 31.6% represents a year of favourable production conditions and diversified supply.

This persistent reliance means that the EU remains structurally exposed to supply disruptions in its key partner countries. Ukraine alone continued to supply imports worth €294m in 2025, representing more than half of total import value. Any renewed disruption to Ukrainian exports — whether from conflict escalation, logistics failures, or export restrictions — would have immediate consequences for EU feed markets and livestock production costs.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in sunflower meal over 2015–2025 was shaped by three interconnected forces: a near-doubling of domestic production that reduced the import deficit and tripled the EU's export propensity; the geopolitical shock of 2022 that eliminated Russian supply and catalysed a diversification toward Argentina, Kazakhstan, and other alternative origins; and a new, higher price regime punctuated by severe supply shocks with abnormality scores reaching 23.2.

Despite these structural shifts, the EU's fundamental position as a net importer of sunflower meal has not changed. Net import reliance stood at 42.6% in 2025, and import concentration — while lower than its peak — remained elevated, with Ukraine accounting for the majority of supply. The growing role of Eastern European producers (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania) in both production and exports offers a pathway toward greater self-sufficiency, but the pace of demand growth has so far matched the gains from domestic capacity expansion.

Looking forward, the key risks centre on the continued reliability of Ukrainian supply, the durability of the new Argentine and Kazakh trade relationships, and the potential for further commodity price shocks. The EU's ability to sustain its production growth trajectory while deepening supply diversification will determine whether import vulnerability can be durably reduced in the years ahead.