Market evolution: Steel forgings and stampings (CN 732619) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in articles of iron or steel, forged or stamped, but not further worked (CN 732619) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The period is characterised by a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position, moving from a significant net exporter to a modest net importer. This transformation was driven by a stark divergence between collapsing export volumes and resilient import growth, occurring against a backdrop of substantial growth in EU domestic production. The following sections will detail the mechanics of this rebalancing, the associated shifts in key trading partners, and the underlying structural changes within the EU's production landscape.

1. The Great Reversal: From Export Surplus to Import Dependency

The most striking feature of the decade is the complete inversion of the EU's trade balance for CN 732619. The region moved from a position of strong export competitiveness to one of net reliance on foreign supply.

The collapse of EU export competitiveness

EU exports of forged and stamped steel articles underwent a severe and sustained contraction between 2015 and 2025. In nominal terms, export value fell by 65.5%, from €448 million to €155 million. This decline was underpinned by an even steeper drop in physical volumes, with exported tonnage decreasing by 62.7% from over 80,000 tonnes to just under 30,000 tonnes. The decline was broad-based, affecting both high-volume and high-value segments. For instance, the volume of exported closed-die forgings (73261990) fell from 44,005 to 14,035 tonnes, while open-die forgings (73261910) dropped from 36,384 to 15,957 tonnes. This erosion of export capacity is further highlighted by the sharp decline in export propensity, which fell from 55.9% to 9.7%.

Steady import growth and price inflation

In contrast to the export decline, imports proved resilient. While the imported quantity saw a modest decrease of 4.2% (from 72,350 to 69,321 tonnes), the value of imports increased by 26.7% to €321 million. This divergence was driven by a significant 32.2% rise in import prices, from an average of €3,500 to €4,626 per tonne. The price increase was particularly pronounced for open-die forgings (73261910), where the import price rose from €3,250 to €4,651 per tonne. This price inflation, coupled with resilient volumes, steadily increased the import bill.

The creation of a structural trade deficit

The combination of collapsing exports and growing imports caused the trade balance to swing dramatically from a surplus of €195 million in 2015 to a deficit of €166 million in 2025, a negative change of 185.2%. This reversal is quantified by the net import reliance metric, which shifted from -40.5% (indicating a net exporter) to +6.4% (indicating a net importer).

2. Shifting Geographies: The Reconfiguration of Trade Flows

The decade saw a major reorientation of the EU's trading partners for this product category, characterised by the rising dominance of Asian suppliers and a weakening of ties with traditional partners.

China's ascendancy in the EU import market

China solidified its position as the preeminent supplier of forged and stamped steel articles to the EU. Its share of EU imports doubled in value terms, rising from €61 million to €124 million (+101.8%). This growth was exceptionally steady and volatility was low, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of just 0.16. By 2025, China was by far the largest single supplier, underscoring its central role in the EU's supply chain for these components.

Declining fortunes of traditional export destinations

The EU's largest export markets experienced severe contractions. Exports to the United States collapsed by 80.2%, from €150 million to €30 million. Similarly, shipments to the United Kingdom, the EU's second-largest market in 2015, fell by 69.9%. Even exports to nearby Switzerland declined by 65.5%. The concentration of EU exports fell significantly (HHI from 1,597 to 906), indicating a diversification away from these top partners, though often into smaller, less stable markets.

Volatility and shocks in bilateral trade

Trade flows exhibited significant volatility, especially with certain partners. EU imports from the United Kingdom were highly volatile (CV 0.66) and were subject to a major price shock in 2021, with an abnormality score of 27.8. Exports to India also experienced a severe price shock in 2020. Meanwhile, trade with Russia effectively ceased by 2025, with export value falling to just €26,790.

3. Domestic Production Growth Amidst Evolving Specialisation

While external trade rebalanced, EU domestic production of forged and stamped articles grew dramatically, though this growth did not translate into export recovery, suggesting a reorientation of the production base.

Robust expansion of EU manufacturing output

EU production volumes for product code 25.99.29.22 (the PRODCOM equivalent) surged by 272.6% over the period, from 193 million kg to 720 million kg. In value terms, the increase was even more pronounced at 380%, from €435 million to over €2 billion. This indicates substantial investment and capacity expansion within the EU's forging and stamping sector throughout the decade.

A divergent trajectory for trade and production

The simultaneous growth of domestic production and the collapse of exports presents a key puzzle. While production soared, the export propensity plummeted. This suggests that the expanded production was primarily absorbed by the internal EU market, substituting for imports in some segments, or was directed towards products not covered by this specific customs code. It may also reflect a competitive environment where EU producers focused on higher-value or technically complex segments for domestic use, while losing ground in standardised, price-sensitive export markets.

Internal specialisation and concentration

Within the EU, specialisation in producing these articles varies widely. In 2025, countries like Estonia and Czechia showed high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating a strong focus. Conversely, large economies like Germany showed negative specialisation, yet remained a major importer, highlighting complex intra-EU supply chains. The import side became more concentrated (HHI rising from 1,294 to 1,994), driven by the dominance of a few suppliers like China.

Conclusion

The decade 2015-2025 marked a watershed for the EU's trade in forged and stamped steel articles (CN 732619). The market underwent a structural transformation from a net exporter to a net importer, a shift driven by an unprecedented 65% decline in export values and volumes. This erosion of external competitiveness occurred despite a remarkable 272% growth in domestic production, indicating a significant reorientation of the EU's industrial base towards serving internal demand. Geographically, the EU's import market became increasingly reliant on China, while its export footprint shrank dramatically in key traditional markets like the US and UK. Rising import prices further solidified the new trade deficit. The period highlights the challenges faced by the EU's mid-tech metalworking sector in maintaining global export share amidst changing competitive dynamics, and underscores the growing importance of Asia in its supply chains for these critical industrial components.