Market evolution: Starter batteries (CN 85071020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in lead-acid starter batteries (customs code 85071020) over the period 2015–2025. Despite the accelerating transition to electric vehicles, starter batteries for internal-combustion engines remain a significant commodity: the EU produced an estimated 95 million units worth approximately €4.8 billion in 2025, while its external trade reached over €1.1 billion in exports and €550 million in imports. The decade under review saw robust growth on both sides of the ledger, a dramatic reshuffling of trade partners driven by geopolitics, and notable price pressures linked to raw-material costs and supply-chain shocks. The following sections explore these dynamics in detail.

1. A Growing Market with a Narrowing Trade Surplus

1.1. Both exports and imports expanded significantly over the decade

EU exports of starter batteries rose from €755 million in 2015 to €1,191 million in 2025, a gain of 57.7% in value. Imports grew even faster, from €319 million to €550 million, an increase of 72.1%. In physical terms, export volumes rose 30.4% (from 297,308 tonnes to 387,714 tonnes), while import volumes climbed 52.2% (from 132,887 tonnes to 202,260 tonnes). The EU thus remained a net exporter throughout the period, but its trade surplus, while still expanding in absolute terms (+47.2% to €642 million), was eroding as a share of total trade.

Source: General Overview

1.2. Import volumes are catching up, signaling rising external penetration

A telling indicator of the shifting balance is the net import reliance ratio. In 2015, EU net exports represented 21.2% of domestic production value; by 2025, that figure had fallen to 14.9%. Meanwhile, export propensity — the share of domestic production exported — declined from 26.8% to 24.7%, while trade intensity (trade as a share of production) held broadly stable around 33%. This combination suggests that while EU production grew, a rising share of incremental demand was met by imports.

1.3. EU production expanded, supporting continued export capacity

Despite growing import penetration, EU domestic production remained resilient. Output in pieces rose from an estimated 86.7 million to 95.0 million units (+9.6%), while production value increased from €3.98 billion to €4.80 billion (+20.6%). Several EU Member States demonstrated strong specialisation in this product, notably Czechia (RSCA: 0.60), Bulgaria (0.59), Slovenia (0.52), and Spain (0.48), which helped sustain the EU's export base.

2. A Geopolitical Reshuffling of Trade Partners

2.1. Exports to Russia and China collapsed; the US and Türkiye surged

The most striking feature of the decade is the dramatic realignment of the EU's export destinations. Exports to the Russian Federation fell by 85.6%, from €46 million to just €7 million — a decline almost certainly linked to EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Exports to China collapsed by 90.0%, from €129 million to €13 million, suggesting that China's rapidly electrifying vehicle fleet is displacing traditional starter-battery imports. Meanwhile, exports to the United States surged by 406.7% (from €45 million to €230 million), and exports to Türkiye rose by 430.3% (from €21 million to €109 million). Exports to Ukraine also grew strongly (+258.8% to €50 million), likely reflecting both EU-Ukraine integration and wartime demand for vehicle maintenance.

Source: Top partners by value

2.2. Import sources diversified, with sharp gains from Türkiye, North Macedonia, and China

On the import side, the picture is one of broad-based growth, with particularly steep increases from countries that serve as manufacturing platforms for multinational battery producers. Imports from China grew 142.9% (from €53 million to €129 million), while imports from North Macedonia rose 251.4% (€18 million to €65 million) and imports from Türkiye increased 200.1% (€25 million to €74 million). South Korea remained the EU's single largest import source, with flows rising 71.9% to €132 million. This pattern is consistent with the relocation of lead-acid battery production to lower-cost countries near the EU market (North Macedonia, Türkiye) and to large-scale Asian producers (China, South Korea).

Source: Top partners by value

2.3. Export markets became slightly more diversified; import origins became more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell marginally from 843 to 816 (−3.2%), indicating a modestly more diversified destination profile — in line with the pivot toward new markets like the US and Türkiye. By contrast, import concentration rose from 1,201 to 1,543 (+28.5%), suggesting a growing reliance on a smaller number of key suppliers, particularly South Korea and China. This rising import concentration could pose a vulnerability if supply disruptions occurred.

2.4. Germany and Spain dominate EU trade, but new dynamics are emerging within the bloc

Among EU Member States, Germany was by far the largest exporter (€460 million in 2025), followed by Spain, which saw the most dramatic expansion (+622.7% to €244 million). France was the largest importer (€112 million), followed by Italy (€69 million) and Slovenia (€57 million). The steep rise in Spanish exports and Slovenian imports likely reflects investment in battery manufacturing capacity in these countries, partly by multinational producers seeking proximity to EU markets.

3. Price Pressures, Supply Shocks, and the Weight of the Energy Transition

3.1. Unit prices rose, but unevenly between exports and imports

Export unit prices (per tonne) increased 20.9% over the period, from €2,541/t to €3,073/t, while import prices rose more modestly by 13.1%, from €2,404/t to €2,718/t. The supplementary unit price (per piece) tells a different story: export piece prices surged 44.6% (from €41.4 to €59.9 per unit), while import piece prices rose only 16.9% (from €24.1 to €28.2 per unit). This divergence suggests that EU exporters are shifting toward higher-value, heavier batteries — likely for premium vehicles or specialized applications — while imports remain more concentrated in standard, lower-cost segments.

3.2. Battery weights are increasing, reflecting evolving vehicle requirements

A telling structural shift is visible in the relationship between mass and piece counts. Over the decade, export volumes by mass grew 30.4% while the number of pieces exported grew only 9.1%, implying that the average weight per battery increased substantially. Similarly, import mass grew 52.2% while piece counts rose 47.2%. This trend is consistent with the growing electrification of vehicles: modern cars with start-stop systems, mild-hybrid architectures, and increasingly power-hungry electronics require larger and heavier 12V batteries, even as the total number of purely ICE vehicles in the fleet may plateau.

3.3. Supply shocks in 2019–2022 reflect lead-market and logistics disruptions

The data reveals several notable price shocks. In 2019, EU export prices to Mexico jumped by 93.3% (abnormality score: 22.8), likely reflecting a combination of exchange-rate movements and lead-price volatility. In 2022, import prices from both Viet Nam (+98.4%) and China (+65.7%) spiked sharply, coinciding with the post-COVID commodity supercycle and the energy-price shock triggered by the war in Ukraine. Lead is the primary raw material in these batteries, and lead prices were highly volatile during 2021–2022, passing through into finished-goods prices.

3.4. Volatility varies widely across partners, reflecting different supply-chain risks

The coefficient of variation of trade values reveals which partner relationships are most volatile. On the import side, Türkiye (CV: 0.54) and Ukraine (CV: 0.35) show the highest instability, while South Korea (CV: 0.17) and Indonesia (CV: 0.19) are the most stable suppliers. On the export side, flows to China (CV: 0.81) and Saudi Arabia (CV: 0.76) are extremely volatile, reflecting the sharp contractions described above, while exports to the United Kingdom (CV: 0.14) and Serbia (CV: 0.11) are far more predictable. These patterns have implications for supply-chain resilience: the EU's most reliable export markets are its geographic neighbours, while its fastest-growing but most volatile relationships are with distant partners subject to geopolitical risk.

Conclusion

The EU starter-battery market over 2015–2025 is a story of resilience amid transformation. Domestic production continued to grow, the EU maintained its net-exporter status, and trade expanded on both sides. Yet beneath this headline stability, powerful structural forces are at work. Geopolitical events — sanctions on Russia, China's pivot to electric vehicles, and the broader energy crisis — have profoundly reshaped the map of trade partners, pushing EU exports toward the United States and Türkiye while drawing imports increasingly from China, South Korea, and nearby manufacturing hubs in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe. Rising unit prices and heavier batteries point to an evolving product mix, as modern vehicle architectures demand more from their auxiliary power systems. At the same time, the narrowing trade surplus and growing import concentration suggest that the EU's competitive position, while still strong, faces mounting pressure. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, the key question going forward is whether European producers can maintain their edge as the automotive sector's electrification accelerates and as the market for 12V lead-acid batteries gradually gives way to alternative technologies.