Market evolution: Silico manganese wire rod coils (CN 722720) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of bars and rods of silico-manganese steel (CN 722720) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market undergoing significant contraction in volume, accompanied by a restructuring of trade relationships and a notable shift in the EU's trade position.

I. Significant Contraction in EU Trade Volumes with Rising Unit Values

Over the decade, the EU experienced a substantial decline in both the import and export of silico-manganese wire rod coils, indicating a shrinking market footprint.

Overall Trade Decline: Between the first and last year of the period, the EU's total imports fell by 68.9% in quantity and 46.0% in value. Similarly, exports contracted by 66.7% in quantity and 46.3% in value. The EU's trade balance remained positive but narrowed significantly by 46.7%.
Divergence Between Volume and Value: While volumes collapsed, unit values (prices) rose sharply. The average import price increased by 73.5%, and the export price rose by 61.3%. This suggests a market where lower-volume trades involve higher-value products or where global cost pressures significantly impacted pricing.
Domestic Production Mirrors the Trend: EU production volumes also plummeted by 61.3% (in kg), confirming that the trade decline is part of a broader industrial contraction for this specific steel product within the bloc.

II. A Fundamental Reconfiguration of the EU's Trade Partnerships

The decline in trade volume was not uniform across partners; it was accompanied by a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key suppliers and export destinations, leading to greater import concentration.

Import Supply Chain Transformation: Traditional suppliers lost ground while others consolidated. Brazil and Japan remained the top two suppliers by value, but their trajectories diverged: Brazilian imports fell by 67.4% while Japanese imports grew by 8.1%. Meanwhile, imports from Türkiye and the United Kingdom almost entirely ceased. In contrast, imports from Russia and Belarus grew substantially until geopolitical events likely disrupted these flows.
Increased Import Concentration: This partner volatility led to a more concentrated import market. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 3,531 to 6,059, a 71.6% increase. This indicates a shift towards fewer, larger suppliers, which can increase dependency risks.
Shift in Export Destinations: The United Kingdom solidified its position as the primary export market, though its share of value contracted slightly. Exports to Türkiye collapsed by 89.6%, while new, albeit smaller, markets like Liechtenstein and Canada emerged.

III. Evolving Vulnerability and Specialization within the EU

The structural changes in trade have affected the EU's external dependency and the internal landscape of production among its member states.

Shift from Net Exporter to Near-Neutral Position: The EU's net import reliance transitioned from a negative value (-1.8%, indicating net exporter status) in 2015 to a near-zero positive value (0.06%) by 2025. This confirms the loss of the EU's historical trade surplus in this product.
Internal Specialization Persists Amidst Contraction: Despite the overall decline, clear patterns of specialization remain within the EU. Austria and Czechia show a high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and positive RSCA scores, indicating they are specialized and competitive exporters. In contrast, larger economies like France and the Netherlands are not specialized, focusing likely on other steel products.
Price Shocks Highlighted in Supply Chain: The volatility analysis detected significant price shocks in 2022 for imports from Brazil and Japan, with price shifts far exceeding normal volatility. This coincides with the period of generally rising prices and underscores the supply chain's exposure to cost fluctuations from key partners.

Conclusion

The EU market for silico-manganese wire rod coils (CN 722720) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025, characterized by a steep decline in traded volumes and domestic production. This contraction was coupled with a rise in unit values and a major reconfiguration of trade partnerships, leading to a more concentrated import base reliant on Brazil and Japan. Internally, specialization became more pronounced, with a handful of member states maintaining competitive positions. Overall, the EU transitioned from being a net exporter to a net importer, signaling a significant shift in its strategic position for this product, albeit within a much smaller overall market. The observed dynamics point towards a sector affected by broader industrial restructuring, geopolitical shifts, and significant price pressures.