Market evolution: Shampoo (CN 330510) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union trade in shampoos (Combined Nomenclature code 330510) over the period 2015–2025, covering trade flows with non-EU countries. The data reveals a sector that has grown substantially in both directions of trade, but with the EU firmly consolidating its position as a major net exporter. Over the decade, the EU's shampoo trade surplus with the rest of the world nearly doubled, driven by strong export growth, rising unit values, and an increasingly diversified set of trading partners.

Key overview metrics at a glance:

1. A Consolidating Net-Exporter Position with Growing Volume and Value

The trade surplus expanded significantly throughout the period

The EU entered the period as a net exporter of shampoos and finished it as an even more dominant one. The net import reliance indicator — which is negative when a bloc is a net exporter — moved from −22.1% in 2015 to −54.8% in 2025, more than doubling in magnitude. This means that the EU's net outward shipments grew far faster than its domestic consumption, underscoring the sector's increasing export orientation.

Price dynamics diverged between imports and exports

While both import and export unit prices rose over the decade, the trajectories were markedly different:

Imports consistently commanded a significantly higher unit value than exports — in 2025, the average import price was roughly 68% higher than the average export price. This gap widened over the period, suggesting that the EU tends to import more premium or specialised formulations while exporting higher-volume, more competitively priced products. Alternatively, it may reflect the geographic composition of trade, with imports arriving from higher-cost origins.

Volume growth was strong but lagged value growth on the export side

Export volumes grew by 34.3% over the period, while export values grew by 72.2% — implying that roughly half of the value growth was driven by higher prices rather than additional volume. On the import side, the contrast was even sharper: volumes grew only 8.8% while values surged 51.1%, indicating that the EU's rising import bill was overwhelmingly a price phenomenon rather than a volume one.

2. Shifting Geographical Patterns and the Emergence of New Trade Partners

The United Kingdom remained the EU's dominant bilateral partner

Across both exports and imports, the United Kingdom consistently ranked as the EU's largest partner. In 2025, the UK absorbed €209.3 M in EU shampoo exports (+35.1% vs. 2015) and supplied €136.5 M in imports (+28.5%). The UK's continued prominence is unsurprising given pre-existing supply-chain integration, proximity, and shared consumer preferences — although Brexit introduced new customs formalities that may have been offset by the continued deep economic ties.

Türkiye and China emerged as fast-growing import sources

The most striking growth dynamics on the import side involved:

Türkiye's fivefold increase in shampoo exports to the EU is remarkable and likely reflects the country's growing cosmetics manufacturing base and cost competitiveness. Meanwhile, China's gains align with its broader expansion in consumer-goods exports globally. Notably, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed from €1.9 M to virtually zero (−100%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Export markets diversified, with Ukraine, the UAE, and the United States growing fastest

Several export markets saw dramatic growth:

Ukraine's dramatic rise — nearly tripling — may partly reflect the EU–Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) that entered into full application in 2016, as well as a shift in consumer preferences toward EU-branded products. Russia remained a sizeable export market despite geopolitical tensions, though the coefficient of variation of 0.15 for EU exports to Russia suggests notable year-to-year instability.

Trade concentration decreased on both the import and export sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) — a standard measure of market concentration — declined for both imports and exports:

The falling HHI on the import side indicates that the EU is sourcing shampoos from a wider set of origins, reducing dependence on any single supplier. On the export side, the EU is selling to an increasingly diversified customer base — a positive signal for resilience.

3. Internal EU Production Strength and Member-State Specialisation

EU shampoo production grew in parallel with trade

According to production data, EU production value rose from €1,554 M in 2015 to €2,647 M in 2025 — a +70.3% increase. This aligns closely with the growth in exports, suggesting that the EU's manufacturing base has expanded primarily to serve international markets rather than domestic consumption alone. The export propensity — the share of production that is exported — rose from 24.5% to 47.1% over the period, meaning that nearly half of EU shampoo output was destined for non-EU markets by 2025.

A handful of EU member states dominated export performance

The top EU exporters by value in 2025 were:

France and Germany remained the traditional heavyweights, but Italy, Poland, and Spain posted the most impressive growth rates. Poland's exports more than tripled, suggesting that Central European producers have significantly scaled their international operations, possibly leveraging lower labour costs and proximity to growing Eastern European markets.

Specialisation patterns reflect divergent national industrial strategies

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a clear divide:

Most specialised members (high RCA):

Least specialised members (low RCA):

France's RCA of 2.76 indicates a strong comparative advantage in shampoo exports — consistent with the country's deep expertise in cosmetics and personal care. Romania's second-place position is noteworthy and likely reflects the role of contract manufacturing and multinational production facilities located there. In contrast, Ireland's extremely low specialisation (RCA of 0.04) despite being a top importer suggests that the country functions primarily as a consumption hub — likely linked to its large multinational corporate presence and high per-capita income — rather than a production centre for this product.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU shampoo market (CN 330510) evolved from a healthy trade surplus into a commanding net-exporter position, with the trade balance growing by over 80% to reach nearly €937 M. This was achieved through a combination of rising production volumes, increasing unit values, and geographic diversification across both source and destination markets.

The most significant structural shifts include: (i) the rapid emergence of Türkiye and China as import suppliers, while Russia's import role collapsed entirely; (ii) the explosive growth of EU exports to Ukraine, the US, and the UAE; and (iii) the strengthening contribution of Southern and Central European member states — particularly Italy, Poland, and Spain — to the EU's export base.

With import concentration declining and export propensity approaching 50%, the EU's shampoo sector appears well-positioned to continue its outward orientation. However, the widening price differential between imports and exports warrants attention: the EU is paying increasingly more for what it imports relative to what it earns from exports, which could affect margins if the pattern persists.