Market evolution: Hair preparations (CN 330590) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in hair preparations other than shampoos, permanent waving or straightening products, and hair lacquers (CN 330590) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers a broad range of conditioners, styling products, hair dyes, treatments, and serums — a segment closely linked to consumer trends in personal care and beauty. The EU occupies a dominant position as a global supplier in this market, with a long-standing and widening trade surplus. Over the decade, the EU's export value grew by 58.2% while import value nearly doubled (+91.0%), yet the trade balance widened from €1.08 billion to €1.58 billion. Three major dynamics stand out: (1) a pronounced price-driven growth trajectory in both exports and imports, (2) a significant reconfiguration of trade partners, and (3) a strengthening of the EU's structural competitive position despite growing trade openness. The following sections detail and interpret these findings.
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1. Price-Driven Growth Masks Stagnating Physical Volumes
EU export value surged while tonnage barely moved
The headline growth in EU exports — from €1.47 billion in 2015 to €2.33 billion in 2025, a gain of 58.2% — is almost entirely explained by rising unit values rather than expanding volumes. Export quantities grew only 7.7% over the period (from 283,708 to 305,653 tonnes), whereas the average export price rose 46.8% (from €5,181/t to €7,606/t). This pattern points to either a compositional shift toward higher-value-added products (premium conditioners, professional treatments, colourants) or broad-based price inflation in the cosmetics sector, or both.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€) | 1,469,929,495 | 2,325,255,059 | +58.2% |
| Export quantity (t) | 283,708 | 305,653 | +7.7% |
| Export price (€/t) | 5,181 | 7,606 | +46.8% |
| Import value (€) | 388,853,450 | 742,753,187 | +91.0% |
| Import quantity (t) | 49,973 | 66,185 | +32.4% |
| Import price (€/t) | 7,781 | 11,222 | +44.2% |
| Trade balance (€) | 1,081,076,045 | 1,582,501,872 | +46.4% |
Import growth outpaced exports in percentage terms, but the surplus kept widening
While imports grew faster (+91.0% in value) than exports (+58.2%), the EU's trade surplus still expanded by €501 million because exports started from a much larger base. Notably, the average import price (€11,222/t in 2025) is substantially higher than the average export price (€7,606/t), suggesting that the EU imports a narrower set of higher-value specialty products while exporting a broader, more competitively priced product mix. Import quantities peaked at 71,912 tonnes before settling at 66,185 tonnes, indicating some demand moderation or substitution effects.
EU production remained broadly stable, underscoring mature domestic demand
According to PRODCOM production data, EU production value (code 20.42.17.00) edged up by just 2.1% from €2.73 billion to €2.78 billion over the period, with a trough of €2.14 billion. This relative stability confirms that the surge in export value is not primarily driven by a production boom but rather by pricing dynamics and possibly a growing share of output directed to export markets.
2. Diversifying Supply Sources and a Geopolitical Reorientation of Export Flows
Import sources diversified significantly, with emerging suppliers growing explosively
The EU's import concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by value) fell from 2,707 to 1,995 — a 26.3% decline — reflecting a meaningful diversification of supply sources away from historical dominance by a handful of Western partners.
| Import partner | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 145,696,101 | 193,870,207 | +33.1% |
| United States | 135,691,696 | 248,405,460 | +83.1% |
| Türkiye | 7,605,004 | 44,444,732 | +484.4% |
| China | 8,299,391 | 41,893,549 | +404.8% |
| Brazil | 4,808,876 | 30,751,896 | +539.5% |
| Switzerland | 23,060,844 | 36,352,665 | +57.6% |
| Israel | 13,279,555 | 26,442,862 | +99.1% |
While the United Kingdom and the United States remain the two largest import sources, the most striking development is the explosive growth of imports from Türkiye (+484.4%), China (+404.8%), and Brazil (+539.5%). These three countries together accounted for only €20.7 million in 2015 but reached €117.1 million in 2025 — a near sixfold increase. This likely reflects the growing competitiveness of cosmetics manufacturing in these countries, cost-advantaged production (especially for hair dyes and treatments), and possibly increasing use of contract manufacturing by European brands. The volatility of these newer flows is notably higher (coefficient of variation of 0.48–0.67) compared to established partners like the US (0.15) or Switzerland (0.16), suggesting that these trade relationships have not yet matured.
EU exports shifted away from Russia and toward Ukraine and the Middle East
On the export side, the most consequential change has been the decline in exports to the Russian Federation — from €151 million to €126 million (−16.8%) — despite Russia being the EU's second-largest non-EU export market. This decline coincides with the post-2022 sanctions environment and broader geopolitical tensions, though the residual volume remains substantial. In contrast, exports to Ukraine grew by 221.1% (from €30 million to €96 million), and those to the United Arab Emirates grew by 72.4% (from €44 million to €75 million).
| Export partner | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 270,089,308 | 400,324,844 | +48.2% |
| United States | 178,943,180 | 321,662,209 | +79.8% |
| Russian Federation | 151,116,206 | 125,746,352 | −16.8% |
| Türkiye | 67,376,459 | 113,974,514 | +69.2% |
| Ukraine | 29,825,981 | 95,783,089 | +221.1% |
| Australia | 48,847,662 | 85,185,111 | +74.4% |
| United Arab Emirates | 43,516,608 | 75,005,826 | +72.4% |
Export concentration was already low (HHI of 720 in 2015) and decreased further to 668, confirming that EU exporters serve a wide and balanced portfolio of destinations. This geographic diversification is a structural strength, limiting the bloc's vulnerability to disruptions in any single market.
Price shock events were isolated and concentrated in the US-bound flow
The shock detection analysis identified three notable price anomalies: a 54.6% upward price shift in EU exports to China in 2019 (abnormality score of 11.9), a 25.6% shift in exports to Mexico in 2022 (abnormality 11.3), and a 20.4% shift in exports to the United States in 2022 (abnormality 3.7). The US event is the most commercially significant given that the US market represents 18.0% of EU export value. The 2022 timing across multiple destinations is consistent with the post-pandemic inflationary wave and supply chain cost pressures affecting the cosmetics industry globally.
3. Italy Leads a Deepening EU Export Specialisation, While Import Dependence Remains Negligible
Italian exporters more than doubled their shipments, consolidating EU leadership
Within the EU, Italy stands out as the member state with the strongest and most rapidly growing export specialisation in hair preparations. Italian exports rose by 106.4% from €283 million to €585 million, making Italy the EU's largest exporter of CN 330590 products — overtaking Germany, which grew more modestly at +31.7%. Italy's revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.29 and RCA of 1.82 confirm a clear specialisation in this product category, consistent with the country's broader cosmetics and beauty manufacturing cluster.
| EU exporter | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 283,213,073 | 584,572,091 | +106.4% |
| Germany | 339,659,171 | 447,363,151 | +31.7% |
| Spain | 194,657,469 | 316,917,005 | +62.8% |
| France | 154,779,517 | 258,604,120 | +67.1% |
| Netherlands | 83,148,303 | 167,691,177 | +101.7% |
| Poland | 95,023,845 | 140,624,313 | +48.0% |
| Belgium | 127,522,747 | 104,706,345 | −17.9% |
Slovenia recorded the highest RSCA (0.63) and RCA (4.47) among all EU members, although its absolute share in total EU production remains small (4.5%). The Netherlands more than doubled its exports (+101.7%), likely reflecting its role as a logistics and re-export hub. Belgium was the only top exporter to decline (−17.9%), possibly reflecting supply chain re-routing or competitive pressures.
On the import side, the Netherlands and France saw the strongest surges
The Netherlands' imports of CN 330590 grew by 185.7% (from €69 million to €196 million), while France's grew by 221.3% (from €24 million to €78 million). Both increases likely reflect the growing role of these countries as distribution gateways for non-EU cosmetics entering the single market. Ireland also registered strong import growth (+63.2%), potentially linked to the presence of multinational personal-care headquarters.
The EU is structurally autonomous and its export orientation is intensifying
The EU's net import reliance deepened from −18.6% to −121.1% over the period, meaning that exports now exceed imports by more than double in value terms. This is consistent with an industry where the EU is a major global manufacturing base, anchored by Italy, Germany, France, and Spain.
Trade intensity rose from 31.1% to 84.7%, and export propensity from 24.8% to 80.7%. These figures indicate that the EU's hair preparations sector has become significantly more export-oriented over the decade — a trend likely driven by growing global demand for European beauty brands, the internationalisation of EU cosmetics manufacturers, and the premium positioning of EU products in third-country markets.
Conclusion
The EU trade in hair preparations (CN 330590) over 2015–2025 tells a story of robust value growth, price inflation, and strategic reorientation. Despite modest volume expansion, the EU's export revenues grew by over half a billion euros, driven predominantly by rising unit values and the premium positioning of European products. The trade surplus widened to €1.58 billion, reinforcing the EU's structural autonomy in this segment.
The most significant structural shifts occurred on the geographic dimension. Import sources diversified markedly, with Türkiye, China, and Brazil emerging as fast-growing suppliers — a development that warrants monitoring for future competitive dynamics. On the export side, the loss of momentum in the Russian market (−16.8%) was more than compensated by strong growth in Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, and the United States. Italy's emergence as the EU's leading exporter, surpassing Germany, underpins the bloc's competitive advantage.
Price volatility remains contained for major partners, and the only significant shock events were concentrated in 2022, consistent with the broader inflationary environment. Looking ahead, the combination of rising global demand for premium hair-care products, continued geographic diversification, and a deepening export orientation positions the EU's hair preparations sector favourably — though reliance on pricing power rather than volume growth may face limits as competition from Asian and Latin American manufacturers intensifies.