Market evolution: SARS-CoV vaccines (CN 30024110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the European Union's trade in vaccines against SARS-related coronaviruses (customs code 30024110) between 2015 and 2025. Data for this specific product category is only available from 2022 onward, reflecting the commercial reality that these vaccines did not exist prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis therefore focuses on the dramatic four-year period from 2022 to 2025, a timeframe characterized by an initial surge in production and trade, followed by a rapid and profound market contraction. The EU emerged as a dominant global exporter, with its trade flows, partnership dynamics, and production landscape undergoing a complete cycle within this brief window.

1. From Pandemic Surge to Market Contraction: The Full Lifecycle in Four Years

The EU's trade in SARS-CoV vaccines experienced a complete boom-bust cycle between 2022 and 2025, moving from massive pandemic-driven demand to a state of significant normalization.

The Initial Peak Reflects Global Pandemic Response

The year 2022 represents the absolute peak of the market, driven by global vaccination campaigns and booster shot demand. The EU recorded its highest trade values in this year, with exports totaling €21.26 billion and imports reaching €3.80 billion. This resulted in an exceptionally strong positive trade balance of €17.45 billion. The data indicates the EU was a massive net exporter, with a net import reliance of -199.4%, meaning exports were nearly triple the value of imports.

The Subsequent Decline Is Steep and Multidimensional

From this peak, all key trade metrics collapsed. By 2025, export values had fallen by 88.7% to €2.39 billion, and imports plummeted by 95.5% to just €172.8 million. The trade balance, while still positive, contracted by 87.3% to €2.22 billion. This decline was not only in monetary value but also in physical quantity, though the drop in value (-88.7%) was far steeper than the drop in export volume (-58.6%), indicating a significant erosion in unit prices. Export unit prices fell by 72.8%, from over €9.5 million per tonne in 2022 to €2.59 million per tonne in 2025.

Table 1: EU Trade Evolution for CN 30024110 (Value in EUR)

Source: EU Trade Dashboard, Overview

2. Geographical Reorientation and Increased Export Market Concentration

The contraction of the market was accompanied by a significant reshuffling of the EU's main trade partners and a notable increase in the concentration of its export base.

A Dramatic Shift in Primary Export Destinations

In 2022, the EU's top export destinations were advanced economies with large populations and high purchasing power, notably Japan (€6.63 billion), the United States (€3.03 billion), and the United Kingdom (€1.91 billion). By 2025, the list was reordered, with the United States retaining the top spot at a reduced €1.19 billion, followed by Brazil (€218 million) and Australia (€105.8 million). Notably, trade with Japan and the United Kingdom collapsed by over 96% and 98.5% respectively. This shift suggests a move away from markets that were among the first to secure large initial vaccine supplies towards other regions, including middle-income countries like Brazil.

Import Sources Vanished as Domestic Production Scaled

EU imports, which were substantial in 2022, mostly ceased by 2025. Switzerland was the largest source in 2022 (€2.32 billion), but imports from there fell by 99.9998% to just €5,568 by 2025. Similarly, imports from India, the United States, and South Africa became negligible. This trend aligns with the scaling of EU-based production capacity, reducing the need for external supply. The concentration of imports (HHI) rose from 4,329 in 2022 to 9,093 in 2025, reflecting the dominance of the United States as the sole remaining significant import partner by value.

Export Concentration Increased as the Market Shrank

While import sources consolidated, the EU's export market also became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports doubled from 1,379 in 2022 to 2,774 in 2025. This indicates that the remaining export activity is focused on fewer destination countries. The decline was broad-based across many partners, but the relative persistence of trade with the United States and Brazil contributed to this higher concentration.

3. The EU's Strong Production Base Underpins Its Autonomy but Faces a Price-Driven Downturn

The EU's rapid establishment of a large-scale vaccine production base provided a high degree of trade autonomy but has since adjusted to a dramatically different demand landscape.

Domestic Production Capacity Was Built and Utilized

Production data, available from 2021, shows the EU quickly mobilized massive capacity. EU production volume surged from 50 million doses in 2021 to a peak of 180 million doses in 2022. By 2024, output had stabilized at a lower but still substantial 84.86 million doses. However, the value of production followed a different trajectory. It peaked in 2022 at €24 billion but fell by 67% to €8 billion by 2024. This stark divergence between quantity and value points to severe price erosion, mirroring the trend seen in trade unit prices.

Specialization Confirms the EU's Leading Role

In 2025, specialization analysis reveals that Ireland and Belgium are the EU's most specialized producers, with very high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.91 and 0.58, respectively. Their large production shares (44.6% and 31.6% of EU export value in their respective industries) underscore their role as the bloc's vaccine manufacturing hubs. Conversely, large economies like France, Italy, and Germany show negative RSCA values, indicating they are not specialized in this product despite their overall economic size.

Trade Autonomy Remains High Despite the Slump

Despite the collapse in trade volumes and values, the EU's fundamental position as a major global supplier is unchanged. The net import reliance remained deeply negative at -167.4% in 2024, confirming the EU continues to be a powerful net exporter. Export propensity, while down from its 2022 peak of 135.7% to 65.5% in 2024, still indicates that a significant portion of EU production is destined for foreign markets. This structural autonomy, evidenced by these vulnerability metrics, suggests the EU's production ecosystem is well-positioned to respond to any future demand, though at a far more moderate scale and price point than during the pandemic's acute phase.

Conclusion

The EU's market for SARS-CoV vaccines between 2022 and 2025 underwent a full lifecycle: a ramp-up to meet an unprecedented global health emergency, a peak characterized by immense scale and value, and a subsequent contraction as the acute pandemic phase waned. The key dynamics were a catastrophic decline in both trade values and unit prices, a significant reshuffling of trade partners, and a consolidation of the market around a fewer number of destinations. Throughout this cycle, the EU maintained its status as a dominant global net exporter, underpinned by a production base centered in Belgium and Ireland that, while reduced in output, ensures continued strategic autonomy in this sector. The market has now settled into a "new normal" of lower but persistent activity, reflecting the transition of COVID-19 vaccines from a crisis product to a part of routine pharmaceutical trade.