Market evolution: Rubberised garments (CN 621050) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in Women's or girls' garments of textile fabrics, rubberised or impregnated, coated, covered or laminated with plastics or other substances (CN 621050) over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses protective and technical garments—such as rainwear, coated workwear, and laminated outdoor apparel—that fall outside the more conventional women's overcoats (heading 6202) and infant clothing.

The decade under review was marked by significant structural transformation. EU imports of these garments fell by nearly half in value (from €734.9 million to €368.6 million) and by over half in volume, while exports declined by 40.3% in value. Yet the trade deficit narrowed substantially, and unit prices rose on both sides. Behind these headline figures lie deeper shifts: the dramatic reconfiguration of supply chains away from China, the rise of Southeast Asian producers, a persistent import dependency that has intensified relative to domestic production, and notable price shocks linked to global disruptions.

1. A Contracting Market Shaped by Higher Prices and Declining Volumes

1.1 Both imports and exports fell sharply, but unit values increased

Between 2015 and 2025, EU trade in CN 621050 experienced broad-based declines in both value and volume. Imports contracted from €734.9 million to €368.6 million (−49.8%), while the traded quantity fell from 30,551 tonnes to 14,296 tonnes (−53.2%). Similarly, exports declined from €465.9 million to €278.1 million in value (−40.3%) and from 6,116 tonnes to 3,281 tonnes in volume (−46.3%).

However, unit prices moved in the opposite direction. Import prices rose from €24,053 per tonne to €25,779 per tonne (+7.2%), and export prices increased from €76,169 per tonne to €84,747 per tonne (+11.3%). The EU thus appears to have been trading fewer tonnes but at higher average prices, suggesting a shift towards higher-value or more specialised product mixes—or simply reflecting inflationary pressures over the decade.

1.2 The trade deficit narrowed markedly

Despite both flows declining, exports fell less steeply than imports, leading to a significant improvement in the trade balance. The deficit shrank from −€269.0 million in 2015 to −€90.4 million in 2025, a 66.4% reduction. The smallest deficit recorded during the period was −€74.6 million, while the largest was −€474.2 million.

This narrowing reflects the structural collapse of EU import volumes from China—historically the dominant supplier—which fell far more rapidly than overall EU export declines. It also suggests that the EU's niche in high-unit-value garments has held relatively better than its mass-market import intake.

1.3 EU Member States show divergent trajectories

Within the EU, the major importing countries all recorded significant declines. Germany, the largest importer, saw intake fall from €191.4 million to €90.3 million (−52.8%). Belgium experienced the most dramatic contraction at −83.5%. On the export side, Italy remained the leading EU exporter (€189.2 million → €129.9 million, −31.3%), followed by France. Belgium's exports collapsed by 91.2%, and the Netherlands' by 75.1%.

2. A Dramatic Reconfiguration of Import Supply Chains Away from China

2.1 China's share collapsed, while Southeast Asian suppliers gained ground

The most striking structural change in this market was the reshaping of import origins. China, which supplied €514.3 million of the EU's rubberised garment imports in 2015 (representing approximately 70% of total intake), saw its exports to the EU collapse to €173.5 million by 2025—a decline of 66.3%. In volume terms, China's share fell from a position of near-total dominance to a significantly reduced role.

Conversely, several Southeast Asian countries expanded their market presence:

• Bangladesh grew from €50.3 million to €61.2 million (+21.6%), becoming the most resilient alternative supplier.
• Myanmar surged from €4.3 million to €13.4 million (+209.4%), peaking at €85.5 million in an intermediate year before retreating.
• Cambodia expanded from €2.8 million to €9.7 million (+250.9%), with a peak of €25.8 million.
• Viet Nam fluctuated significantly, falling from €57.7 million to €36.7 million (−36.4%) but reaching a peak of €110.2 million during the period.

2.2 The UK's exit from the EU restructured intra-European flows

The United Kingdom's presence as both an import partner and an export destination declined sharply. EU imports from the UK fell from €25.7 million to €5.8 million (−77.3%), while EU exports to the UK dropped from €52.8 million to €29.8 million (−43.6%). These declines are consistent with the post-Brexit reconfiguration of trade flows, where the UK is now classified as a non-EU partner and faces new customs formalities.

2.3 Export destinations showed widespread decline

On the export side, the EU's major non-EU customers all recorded contractions. The United States, the largest single export market, fell from €102.0 million to €49.5 million (−51.5%). Exports to Türkiye declined by 74.3%, to Norway by 73.0%, and to Morocco by 89.9%. Switzerland was the most stable market, declining only 27.2% from €56.1 million to €40.8 million, suggesting sustained demand for premium EU-made technical garments in that market.

2.4 Import concentration halved as supply chains diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 5,035 to 2,665 (−47.1%), indicating a substantial reduction in import concentration. In 2015, China alone accounted for a dominant share that pushed the HHI into highly concentrated territory. By 2025, with China's share dramatically reduced and Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Cambodia collectively absorbing a much larger share, the import landscape became significantly more diversified.

By contrast, the export HHI remained relatively stable, declining only 3.6% from 991 to 955, reflecting the EU's already diversified export base across multiple Western markets.

3. Rising Import Dependency Amid Shocks and Price Volatility

3.1 Net import reliance surged even as absolute volumes declined

Paradoxically, while both import and export volumes fell, the EU's net import reliance for CN 621050 more than doubled, rising from 42.5% in 2015 to 88.7% in 2025 (+108.5%). This metric peaked at 94.6% during the period. The sharp rise indicates that while the EU's domestic consumption of these garments contracted in absolute terms, the share satisfied by imports grew substantially relative to domestic production.

This is corroborated by EU production data, which shows a striking divergence: production quantity in number of items rose from 105.3 million to 280.0 million (+165.9%), while production value fell from €401.1 million to €197.3 million (−50.8%). This implies that EU manufacturers increasingly shifted to producing lower-unit-value items at higher volumes—possibly basic protective garments—while higher-value, more complex garments were increasingly sourced from outside the EU.

3.2 The EU became more specialised as an exporter despite declining volumes

The export propensity surged from 130.5% to 535.3% (+310.3%), the most dramatic movement among vulnerability indicators. This suggests that while the EU's total output of these garments may have changed in composition, the proportion directed to export markets increased substantially. The salience analysis identifies export propensity as the dominant vulnerability dimension, with a score of 795.6—far exceeding trade intensity (99.4).

This pattern is consistent with the EU's specialisation profile. Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Italy, and Czechia exhibit the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in this product category, with Sweden leading at 0.60. These countries likely focus on premium technical garments (outdoor wear, specialised workwear) where European brands command a competitive edge, even as basic production has migrated offshore.

3.3 Price shocks and supply-side volatility affected key partners

The period was not without supply shocks. Three notable events stand out:

• Viet Nam (imports, 2022): A price shock with an abnormality score of 84.6 and a 48.5% price shift, affecting 13.6% of import value. This likely reflects post-pandemic supply disruptions and shipping cost inflation that particularly affected Vietnamese garment exports.
• Türkiye (exports, 2017): A price shock with abnormality of 30.0 and a 69.2% shift, covering 2.8% of export value—possibly linked to currency volatility and geopolitical instability in Türkiye.
• Algeria (exports, 2023): The most extreme event, with an abnormality score of 369.1 and a 428.4% price shift, though affecting only 0.2% of export value. This likely reflects a small-volume, anomalous transaction rather than a systemic market event.

Among import partners, Myanmar showed the highest volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.86), followed by the United Kingdom (0.69) and Türkiye (0.68). On the export side, Algeria (CV of 2.38) and Türkiye (1.01) were the most volatile destinations, underscoring the risks of dependence on politically or economically unstable markets.

Conclusion

The EU market for rubberised women's and girls' garments (CN 621050) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. In absolute terms, both imports and exports declined substantially—the former by roughly half, the latter by 40%—reflecting a structural contraction in the traded volume of these products.

Behind this contraction, however, lie more nuanced dynamics. The most consequential shift was the diversification of EU import supply chains away from China, whose share collapsed by 66.3%. Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Cambodia partially filled the gap, while Viet Nam proved more volatile. The resulting halving of import concentration (HHI from 5,035 to 2,665) represents a meaningful reduction in single-source dependency risk, though the EU's net import reliance nonetheless surged to 88.7%, suggesting that the balance between domestic production and external sourcing has tilted decisively towards imports.

The EU's competitive position appears to have narrowed towards a high-value, export-oriented niche. Unit export prices (€84,747/tonne in 2025) remain more than three times higher than import prices (€25,779/tonne), and the export propensity indicator has multiplied by more than four. Countries like Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Italy maintain strong comparative advantages, likely reflecting specialisation in premium technical garments. However, this specialisation also implies greater exposure to demand shocks in key export markets such as the United States and Switzerland.

Looking ahead, the key risks for this market include continued price volatility from geopolitical disruptions (as demonstrated by the shock events in Viet Nam and Türkiye), the sustainability of Southeast Asian supply chain capacity, and the potential for further trade policy shifts that could affect both import costs and export competitiveness.