Market evolution: Coated garments (CN 621040) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of CN 621040 — men's or boys' garments made of textile fabrics that are rubberised, impregnated, coated, covered, or laminated with plastics or other substances — within the European Union over the 2015–2025 period. This product category covers a specialised segment of technical and protective apparel, distinct from conventional outerwear (CN 6201) and knitted garments. The EU remained a net importer throughout the period, but the structure, direction, and pricing of trade evolved considerably. Three major dynamics stand out: a dramatic reorientation of the EU's sourcing base away from China, a reshaping of export destinations partly driven by Brexit and geopolitical shifts, and a structural move toward higher unit values amid declining volumes.

1. Supply-Chain Diversification: The Decline of China and the Rise of Southeast Asia

1.1 China's share of EU imports fell by more than half

China was the EU's dominant supplier of coated garments at the start of the period, accounting for imports worth €445 million in 2015. By 2025, that figure had dropped to €198 million — a decline of 55.5%. Despite this steep decline, China remained the EU's single largest supplier, illustrating the depth of its prior dominance. The shift likely reflects a combination of rising Chinese production costs, EU corporate supply-chain diversification strategies, and — more recently — the effects of EU trade defence measures and geopolitical risk reassessment.

1.2 Myanmar and Cambodia emerged as fast-growing alternatives

While traditional Asian suppliers such as Bangladesh (−13.5%), Vietnam (−36.9%), and Indonesia (−68.5%) all saw their EU-bound exports decline over the period, two countries stood out for their rapid growth:

Myanmar's imports grew nearly threefold, while Cambodia's rose from a negligible base. These shifts are consistent with the broader "China+1" sourcing trend in global apparel, where EU buyers have sought to reduce single-country dependency by investing in capacity across lower-cost Asian economies. However, Myanmar's trajectory has been volatile (coefficient of variation: 0.45), partly reflecting the country's political instability since the 2021 coup.

1.3 Import concentration halved, reflecting a more distributed supply base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fell from 3,969 in 2015 to 1,981 in 2025 — a decline of 50.1%. An HHI above 2,500 is typically considered highly concentrated; the EU's import market has moved from that threshold into a moderately concentrated range. This is a structurally significant change: it means the EU's supply of coated garments is no longer dominated by a single country to the same degree, which reduces vulnerability to country-specific disruptions but also complicates quality assurance and regulatory oversight.

2. Export Destinations Reconfigured: Brexit, Geopolitics, and New Frontiers

2.1 Traditional European and transatlantic partners declined sharply

EU exports of coated garments fell from €274 million to €224 million (−18.2%) over the period. The most significant losses came from three historically important markets:

The United Kingdom's decline is the most consequential in absolute terms. As the EU's largest single-country export destination in 2015, the UK absorbed nearly one-third of all EU coated-garment exports. The 53.5% drop — from €86 million to €40 million — is consistent with the trade-friction effects of Brexit, including customs formalities, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory divergence. Türkiye's near-total collapse (−92.9%) is striking and may reflect a combination of increased domestic Turkish production capacity (Türkiye is itself a major garment exporter) and the redirection of EU investment toward other sourcing locations.

2.2 Albania, Norway, and Greece emerged as major new or expanded destinations

Against the backdrop of declining traditional markets, several destinations grew substantially:

Albania's trajectory is the most dramatic: from €3.3 million to €44 million, making it the EU's largest export destination by 2025. This likely reflects Albania's role as a nearshoring hub for European garment production, where EU companies export semi-finished or finished coated fabrics for assembly, with subsequent re-importation. Meanwhile, among EU Member States, Greece saw an extraordinary increase in its export share — jumping from €3.9 million to €64.3 million (+1,563.8%). Greece's revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.87 in 2025 was by far the highest among all EU members, suggesting it has developed a strong specialisation in this product category — possibly through proximity to Balkan nearshoring networks.

2.3 Export concentration also declined, but less dramatically

The HHI for EU exports fell from 1,642 to 1,141 (−30.5%). While exports were already less concentrated than imports at the start of the period, the further decline signals a meaningful broadening of the EU's customer base — from a handful of large European and North American markets to a more geographically dispersed set of destinations including the Balkans, EFTA states, and North Africa.

3. A Structural Shift Toward Higher Value and Greater Import Dependence

3.1 Volumes fell steeply while unit values rose — a move upmarket

Both import and export volumes declined significantly over the period, yet unit values moved in the opposite direction:

The divergence between export and import unit values is particularly noteworthy. EU exports commanded a unit value of €70,050 per tonne in 2025 — more than 2.5 times the €27,732 per tonne of imports. This gap widened over the decade, as export prices rose by 38.5% while import prices rose by only 10.5%. This pattern is consistent with the EU specialising in higher-specification, higher-value-added coated garments (e.g., technical workwear, protective clothing, performance outerwear) while importing more commoditised products.

3.2 Domestic production surged in volume but collapsed in value

The EU's domestic production data reveals a striking divergence:

The number of items produced nearly tripled while the total value halved. This implies a dramatic fall in the average value per item — from roughly €3.81 to €0.70 — suggesting that EU-based production shifted toward high-volume, low-unit-cost output. One interpretation is that EU manufacturers increasingly focused on producing basic coated-fabric garments (e.g., disposable or semi-disposable protective wear) at scale, while competing less in higher-value segments where Asian imports or specialised niches dominate.

3.3 The EU's net import reliance nearly doubled

The EU's net import reliance — measuring the share of apparent consumption met by net imports — rose from 42.5% in 2015 to 88.7% in 2025, peaking at 94.6% at one point during the period. This near-doubling of import dependence represents the most significant structural shift in the decade. It occurred despite the decline in absolute import values, because the EU's own export base shrank even faster, narrowing the trade deficit in relative terms but leaving the domestic market far more reliant on foreign supply.

The simultaneous rise in export propensity (which measures the share of domestic production that is exported) indicates that an increasing share of the EU's output was directed abroad, even as total production volumes soared. This, combined with rising import reliance, paints a picture of a market that is becoming more deeply integrated into global value chains — producing more but consuming proportionally more from abroad.

Conclusion

The EU market for coated men's and boys' garments (CN 621040) underwent substantial structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Total trade volumes contracted — imports by 35.9% and exports by 40.9% in quantity terms — but the character of that trade changed profoundly.

On the sourcing side, China's dominance was halved while Southeast Asian economies (Myanmar, Cambodia) and traditional partners (Bangladesh) filled part of the gap, leading to a 50% reduction in import concentration. On the export side, Brexit and competitive pressures eroded the EU's position in its three largest markets (the UK, the US, and Türkiye), while Albania, Norway, and Greece emerged as unexpectedly significant destinations — the latter developing a strong revealed comparative advantage.

Perhaps most consequential is the near-doubling of net import reliance to 88.7%, driven by a combination of declining EU competitiveness in export markets and a shift in domestic production toward lower-value, higher-volume output. The EU remains a producer of coated garments, but increasingly at the commodity end of the spectrum, while its export premium — at 2.5× the import unit value — reflects a narrowing specialisation in high-value technical products. For policymakers concerned with supply-chain resilience and strategic autonomy, the rising import dependence and the volatility of newer suppliers (Albania, Myanmar, Cambodia all show high coefficients of variation) warrant close attention.