Market evolution: Refrigeration parts (CN 841899) — 2015–2025
Introduction
The EU market for parts of refrigerating or freezing equipment and heat pumps (CN 841899) underwent significant structural shifts between 2015 and 2025. Over this period, the Union's trade balance in this product category remained positive but narrowed, driven by divergent trends in exports and imports. While EU exporters managed to increase the unit value of their shipments, their total volume contracted. Simultaneously, imports grew substantially in both volume and value, reflecting a changing geographic sourcing pattern and increasing import concentration. This report analyzes these dynamics, focusing on the evolution of trade performance, the reconfiguration of partner countries, and the underlying structural factors shaping the market's resilience and vulnerabilities. The analysis is based on annual trade data from 2015 to 2025, with incomplete periods excluded.
1. A Resilient but Narrowing Trade Surplus Driven by Price and Quantity Divergence
The EU maintained a persistent trade surplus throughout the decade, but its magnitude fluctuated significantly. The overall trend reveals a classic quantity-price divergence: the value of exports rose while their physical volume fell, whereas import value growth outpaced a more moderate increase in imported quantity.
1.1 Export Value Growth Masked a Contraction in Physical Volume
EU export performance showed strength in value terms but weakness in quantity. From 2015 to 2025, the total value of exports grew by 20.0%, rising from €795.8 million to €955.1 million. Conversely, the exported volume declined by 24.8%, from 70,746 tonnes to 53,215 tonnes. This combination resulted in a sharp 59.5% increase in the average export price, from €11,247 to €17,945 per tonne, indicating a shift towards higher-value, specialized components.
1.2 Import Growth Was More Balanced in Volume and Value
Imports expanded robustly, putting pressure on the trade surplus. Import value increased by 51.8% over the period, from €436.8 million to €663.1 million. This was accompanied by a 16.4% rise in imported quantity, from 51,816 tonnes to 60,333 tonnes. The average import price consequently climbed 30.4%, from €8,429 to €10,990 per tonne.
1.3 The Resulting Trade Balance Contracted
The faster growth in imports relative to exports caused the EU's trade surplus to shrink. The surplus fell by 18.7% in nominal terms, from €359.0 million in 2015 to €292.0 million in 2025. This narrowing aligns with a broader increase in the EU's net import reliance, which, while still negative (indicating a surplus), improved by 42.4% from -31.8% to -18.3%.
| Metric | 2015 (First) | 2025 (Last) | % Change (2015-2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (€M) | 795.8 | 955.1 | +20.0 |
| Export Quantity (kT) | 70.7 | 53.2 | -24.8 |
| Export Price (€/t) | 11,247 | 17,945 | +59.5 |
| Import Value (€M) | 436.8 | 663.1 | +51.8 |
| Import Quantity (kT) | 51.8 | 60.3 | +16.4 |
| Import Price (€/t) | 8,429 | 10,990 | +30.4 |
| Trade Balance (€M) | 359.0 | 292.0 | -18.7 |
2. A Reconfiguration of Geographic Sourcing and Markets
The geographic landscape of EU trade for CN 841899 transformed markedly. Import sourcing became more concentrated towards a few key partners, while export destinations showed greater stability, albeit with some significant geopolitical disruptions.
2.1 China and Türkiye Dominated Import Growth
The rise of China and Türkiye as primary suppliers is the central story on the import side. Chinese shipments to the EU more than doubled in value, increasing by 108.8% from €140.2 million to €292.8 million. Imports from Türkiye grew by 80.0%, from €64.7 million to €116.4 million. In contrast, imports from traditional partners like South Korea and the United Kingdom declined by 59.9% and 29.9%, respectively.
2.2 Export Markets Showed Stability Amid Geopolitical Shifts
The EU's top export destinations remained consistent, with the United Kingdom and the United States as the primary markets. Exports to the UK increased by 54.6% in value to €143.9 million, while shipments to the US rose by 56.2% to €121.8 million. The most dramatic shift was the collapse of exports to Russia, which plummeted by 85.4% from €53.5 million to just €7.8 million, likely reflecting sanctions and geopolitical realignment post-2022.
2.3 Intra-EU Production Hubs Revealed by Specialization Data
Production data for 2025 indicates that within the EU, Italy is the dominant producer and exporter, with a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 2.51). Czechia (RCA of 3.61) and Sweden (RCA of 2.72) also exhibit high specialization, suggesting they are key nodes in the regional supply chain for refrigeration parts.
3. Structural Shifts: Increased Concentration, Price Volatility, and Product Complexity
Beyond trade flows, the market structure evolved towards greater import concentration, experienced notable price shocks, and displayed a shift in the product mix of traded components.
3.1 Import Sourcing Became Markedly More Concentrated
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose by 46.0% from 1,651 to 2,410, moving the market into a moderately concentrated category. This mirrors the rise of China and Türkiye. In contrast, export concentration, while also increasing, remained much lower (HHI grew from 468 to 608), indicating a more diversified customer base for EU exporters.
3.2 The Market Faced Notable Price Shocks
Volatility analysis identifies specific, extreme price events. The most significant detected shocks were on the export side: a 168.4% price surge for exports to Canada in 2022 and a 22.6% price drop for exports to the United States in 2021. On the import side, a 29.5% price increase for goods from South Korea occurred in 2022. These events likely reflect supply chain disruptions, tariffs, or currency movements during a volatile global period.
3.3 The Product Mix Evolved Towards Higher-Value Components
Looking at the sub-product breakdown, a clear trend emerges within the "residual" category 841899. For exports, the share of Evaporators and Condensers (84189910) in total export value increased from 25.7% in 2015 to 31.0% in 2025. This sub-category also commanded a higher and growing price premium compared to the broader parts category (84189990). This shift suggests EU exporters are focusing on more technologically complex and higher-value heat exchange components.
Conclusion
The EU refrigeration parts market between 2015 and 2025 demonstrated resilience in maintaining a trade surplus but underwent profound structural change. The period was characterized by a successful move up the value chain in exports, evidenced by rising unit prices despite falling volumes. However, this was offset by rapidly growing imports, particularly from China and Türkiye, which eroded the trade surplus and increased import concentration. This makes the EU more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions originating from a smaller set of key partners. The collapse of exports to Russia and price shocks across various partners highlight the market's sensitivity to geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility. Looking ahead, the EU's competitive strength appears to lie in specialized, high-value components like evaporators and condensers, while its trade balance faces continued pressure from evolving global supply networks.