Market evolution: Refined copper tubes (CN 74111090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in refined copper tubes and pipes in coils or otherwise bent (Combined Nomenclature code 74111090) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on customs trade data and production statistics to describe how the EU's position in this market has shifted dramatically over the decade. Three structural changes stand out: a massive surge in extra-EU imports—particularly from Asia—that turned the EU from a net exporter into a net importer; a sharp contraction in EU domestic production; and a reorientation of both import and export trade flows that has raised questions about concentration and strategic exposure. Together, these dynamics paint a picture of an industry undergoing fundamental transformation.

For the product definition and an interactive overview, see the Scope & Definitions page.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Extra-EU Import Explosion

EU imports nearly quintupled in value while exports grew modestly

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sheer magnitude of the import surge. EU imports of refined copper tubes from non-EU countries rose from €88.6 million in 2015 to €434.7 million in 2025, an increase of +390.7%. In volume terms, imports climbed from 11,678 tonnes to 42,541 tonnes (+264.3%). Over the same period, EU exports grew more moderately in value—from €205.8 million to €273.5 million (+32.9%)—while actually declining in volume from 33,025 tonnes to 23,909 tonnes (−27.6%). The combination of surging imports and stagnating export volumes flipped the EU's trade balance from a comfortable surplus of +€117.3 million in 2015 to a deficit of −€161.2 million in 2025.

Sources: General Overview — trade

Vietnamese and Chinese suppliers led the import surge

The import growth was not distributed evenly across partners. Viet Nam emerged as the single most dramatic story: EU imports from Viet Nam surged from just €1.2 million in 2015 to €151.4 million in 2025—a staggering increase of +12,207%. China's share also expanded strongly, from €15.5 million to €88.4 million (+471.3%). Mexico and Türkiye followed with increases of +317.4% and +391.7% respectively. In contrast, imports from Malaysia contracted from €5.9 million to €2.7 million (−53.6%), and Serbia's contribution fell modestly (−34.9%). Thailand roughly doubled its exports to the EU (+103.0%).

Sources: General Overview — top partners

Nearly every major EU member state saw imports multiply several times over

The import surge was broadly felt across EU Member States. Italy was the largest extra-EU importer, with inflows rising from €21.6 million to €136.8 million (+533.5%). Poland saw the most explosive growth at +1,454% (from €2.7 million to €42.6 million). Germany, France, Czechia, and Spain all recorded increases in the range of +301% to +506%. This broad-based pattern suggests that the import surge was driven by supply-side factors—competitive pricing from Asian and Latin American producers—rather than demand concentrated in a single EU market.

Sources: General Overview — top reporters

Rising unit prices partly cushioned the volume picture

It is important to note that unit prices for both exports and imports rose substantially over the period, reflecting the global copper price cycle. Export unit prices increased from €6,232/t to €11,439/t (+83.5%), while import unit prices rose from €7,586/t to €10,219/t (+34.7%). The faster price growth on the export side partially explains why EU export value could grow by +32.9% even as volumes fell by −27.6%. Conversely, the import volume surge was amplified but not solely caused by price effects—the physical flow of goods genuinely expanded.

2. Shrinking Production, Shifting Exports: The EU Industrial Base Under Pressure

EU domestic production of copper tubes nearly halved in volume

A key backdrop to the trade shifts described above is the contraction of EU domestic production. According to PRODCOM data, EU production of copper tubes and pipes (which maps to CN 74111090 via code 24.44.26.30) fell from 725,652 tonnes to 314,183 tonnes in volume (−56.7%). In value terms, production declined from €3,866 million to €3,141 million (−18.8%). The much steeper decline in volume than in value confirms that higher copper prices have masked a significant real contraction in manufacturing output.

Sources: Market Structure — production volumes

This contraction is consistent with a broader European trend of energy-intensive manufacturing losing ground to lower-cost competitors, particularly in Asia. Copper tube production requires significant energy for extrusion and drawing, and European producers have faced rising energy costs, tighter environmental regulation, and intensifying competition from producers in China, Vietnam, and Mexico.

Export geography shifted away from Russia and towards the United States

On the export side, the most consequential shift was the near-total collapse of EU exports to Russia—from €17.6 million in 2015 to just €0.4 million in 2025 (−97.9%). This almost certainly reflects the impact of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, exports to the United States surged from €18.7 million to €80.7 million (+330.6%), making the US the EU's second-largest export destination after Türkiye. Exports to Serbia also expanded markedly, from €2.3 million to €11.1 million (+379.9%).

Sources: General Overview — top partners

The decline in exports to Türkiye (−30.4%) is notable given that Türkiye was still the EU's largest export destination by value in 2025. This may reflect the growing competitiveness of Turkish domestic producers, who simultaneously increased their own exports to the EU.

Greece, Italy, and Germany dominate EU export specialisation

Within the EU, export capacity is concentrated among a handful of Member States with established comparative advantages. In 2025, Greece held the strongest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.94) and accounted for 22.4% of total EU production in this product, despite representing only 0.7% of overall EU exports across all products. Italy (RSCA 0.61, 33.4% of production) and Germany (RSCA 0.06, 23.8% of production) were the other major producers. Finland and Austria also showed meaningful specialisation. At the other end of the spectrum, Luxembourg, Ireland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Lithuania had negligible presence.

Sources: Market Structure — specialisation

France presents a particularly striking case: despite having been a meaningful exporter in 2015 (€13.7 million), its extra-EU exports collapsed to just €2.7 million by 2025 (−80.3%), suggesting a significant loss of competitiveness or restructuring of its copper tube industry.

3. Rising Import Concentration and Emerging Vulnerabilities

Import sourcing became significantly more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,422 in 2015 to 2,277 in 2025 (+60.1%), crossing from a moderately concentrated market into a more concentrated one. A similar pattern held for import volumes (HHI rising from 1,512 to 2,416, +59.7%). This concentration increase is largely driven by the dominance of three suppliers—Viet Nam, China, and Mexico—which together accounted for a rapidly growing share of EU imports. The emergence of Viet Nam as the single largest supplier (from virtually zero in 2015 to €151.4 million in 2025) is the primary driver of this concentration increase.

Export-side concentration moved in the opposite direction but more modestly: the HHI by value declined from 1,513 to 1,413 (−6.6%), reflecting a modest diversification of EU export destinations.

Sources: Market Structure — concentration

Volatility varies sharply across partners, with some Asian sources notably unstable

Not all import partners carry the same risk profile. Among the top import sources, Mexicodemonstrated relatively low value volatility (coefficient of variation, CV, of 0.36), suggesting a stable supplier. By contrast, Viet Nam showed a high CV of 0.81, and Uzbekistan—while a smaller supplier—had the highest CV of all at 1.59, indicating erratic and unpredictable flows. On the export side, EU shipments to Israel (CV 0.08) and Switzerland (CV 0.11) were the most stable, while exports to the Russian Federation (CV 0.59) were the most volatile, a pattern amplified by the sanctions-driven collapse.

Sources: Volatility bars

Specific shock events highlight price discontinuities in the supply chain

The data identifies several notable price shock events. The most significant by abnormality score was a price shock on imports from Uzbekistan in 2021 (abnormality score: 1,303), with a +41.4% price shift—though this affected only 1.6% of import value and was likely an anomaly in a small trade flow. On the export side, a Libyan price shock in 2017 (abnormality: 1,268, shift: +3,126.5%) was extreme in percentage terms but negligible in commercial significance (0.1% of export value). More consequential was a Russian export price shock in 2021 (abnormality: 875, shift: +37.1%), affecting 6.6% of EU export value—likely a precursor to the sanctions-driven disruption that followed in 2022.

Sources: Supply shocks

The EU remains a net exporter but the margin has narrowed considerably

Despite the import surge, the EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (ranging from −17.1% to −4.4%), indicating that the EU consistently exported more refined copper tubes in value terms than it imported—at least until very recently. The trajectory, however, is one of erosion: the indicator moved from −9.5% in 2015 to −6.8% in 2025, and the 2025 trade balance turned negative for the first time. Trade intensity (the ratio of extra-EU trade to production) rose from 26.8% to 37.7% (+40.6%), while export propensity increased from 19.1% to 25.6% (+33.9%). These rising ratios reflect an industry that is increasingly integrated into global markets—but also increasingly exposed to external competitive pressures.

Sources: Net import reliance, Trade intensity, Export propensity

Conclusion

The EU market for refined copper tubes (CN 74111090) has undergone a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. A near-halving of domestic production volume, combined with a fivefold increase in extra-EU import value, has fundamentally altered the EU's trade position—shifting it from a comfortable net exporter to a net importer. The import surge has been led by Viet Nam, China, Mexico, and Türkiye, while EU export markets have reoriented away from Russia (due to sanctions) and towards the United States. Import concentration has risen sharply, increasing the EU's exposure to a smaller number of foreign suppliers. Although the EU still maintains significant production capacity in Greece, Italy, Germany, and Finland, the trajectory suggests that external competitive pressures—driven by lower production costs abroad and rising energy costs within Europe—continue to reshape the industry. The rising trade intensity and export propensity ratios confirm that this market is becoming more globally integrated, bringing both opportunities for specialised European producers and new vulnerabilities for the wider supply chain.