Market evolution: Precious metal compounds (CN 2843) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in compounds and amalgams of precious metals (Combined Nomenclature code 2843) over the 2015–2025 period. The product category encompasses colloidal precious metals, silver and gold compounds, and amalgams — materials that are critical inputs for sectors such as electronics, catalysis, pharmaceuticals, photography, and jewellery manufacturing. Drawing on trade data between the EU and non-EU countries, the analysis traces shifts in trade volumes, values, prices, partner concentration, and the EU's strategic position in global supply chains. Three major dynamics emerge: a structural pivot from net-import dependence toward net-export surplus, a dramatic reorientation of import sourcing away from Russia, and a pronounced shift in the product mix toward high-value gold compounds.

1. From Import Dependence to Export Surplus: The EU's Changing Trade Balance

The most striking macro-level development over the decade is the EU's transition from a marginal net-exporter at the start of the period to a substantial one by its end.

1.1 The overall trade balance expanded by a factor of more than 100

In 2015, the EU's trade balance in CN 2843 stood at just €3.6 million — essentially a state of near-equilibrium between imports and exports. By 2025, that surplus had widened to €394.2 million, representing a 10,816% increase. The peak surplus reached €1.1 billion in 2022, coinciding with elevated precious-metal prices and supply-chain disruptions that favoured EU exporters. Net import reliance shifted from +42.6% in 2015 (a net-importing position) to −46.0% in 2025 (a net-exporting one), confirming the structural nature of this reversal (Net import reliance).

1.2 Export value nearly doubled while imports grew more modestly

EU exports grew from €843.8 million in 2015 to €1,638.7 million in 2025 (+94.2%), with a peak of €2.4 billion in 2021. Over the same period, import value rose from €840.2 million to €1,244.6 million (+48.1%). The asymmetry in growth rates explains the widening surplus. Crucially, export prices increased by 30.7% (from €1.47 million/t to €1.92 million/t), while export volumes rose 48.6% (from 572 t to 850 t), indicating that the EU successfully moved up the value chain.

Source: General Overview

1.3 Import prices fell while export prices rose — a divergence reflecting compositional shifts

A notable feature is the divergent price trajectory: export unit values rose 30.7% while import unit values fell 24.1%. This suggests the EU increasingly exported higher-value, more processed compounds (notably gold compounds) while importing lower-cost materials (such as silver nitrate). The growing export propensity — from 64.5% in 2015 to 132.9% in 2025, more than doubling — reinforces the picture of the EU becoming a major processing and re-export hub (Export propensity).

2. The Collapse of Russian Imports and the Reconfiguration of Supply Chains

The geopolitical reshaping of EU trade relationships is nowhere more visible than in the import side of CN 2843, where the near-total disappearance of Russian supply has been the dominant structural shock of the period.

2.1 Russian imports collapsed from €390 million to virtually zero

In 2015, Russia was the EU's single largest import source for precious-metal compounds at €390.5 million. By 2025, imports from Russia had fallen to just €40,971 — a decline of essentially 100%. This collapse, which accelerated sharply after 2022 in line with EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, removed what had been nearly half of the EU's total import value at the start of the period (Top partners – imports).

2.2 Diversification toward the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan, and Switzerland

The vacuum left by Russia was filled through a broad diversification of import sources. The United Kingdom became the EU's largest import partner by 2025 (€425.6 million, up 259.5% from 2015), likely benefiting from its established precious-metal refining industry and geographical proximity. Brazil emerged as a major supplier (€155.8 million, +271.8%), reflecting its position as a significant mining country. Japan surged from €12.7 million to €178.5 million (+1,303.3%), and Switzerland grew from €134.4 million to €245.2 million (+82.4%), consistent with both countries' roles as precious-metal processing and trading centres.

Source: Top partners – imports

2.3 Import concentration declined, but supply vulnerability indicators remain mixed

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 2,764 in 2015 to 2,034 in 2025 (−26.4%), indicating a more diversified partner base. However, import concentration by volume moved in the opposite direction, rising from 3,544 to 7,636 (+115.5%), suggesting that while value is spread across more partners, physical volumes are increasingly sourced from a smaller number of dominant suppliers. This divergence highlights that the diversification has been partly a price-driven phenomenon — lower-unit-value imports from new partners — rather than a wholesale broadening of volume sources (Concentration).

3. A Shifting Product Mix: Gold Compounds Surge as Production Volumes Decline

Beyond geography, the composition of EU trade within CN 2843 has undergone a fundamental transformation, with gold compounds emerging as the dominant category in both imports and exports.

3.1 Gold compounds (284330) became the EU's leading import and export category by value

In 2015, gold compounds accounted for just 6.3% of import value (€112.4 million) and 6.3% of export value (€52.8 million). By 2025, their share of imports had risen to 19.9% (€247.5 million, +120.2%) and of exports to 21.3% (€349.3 million, +561.2%). Export volumes of gold compounds exploded from 9.3 tonnes to 347.3 tonnes (+3,641%), confirming this is not merely a price effect but a genuine scaling-up of gold-compound processing and export capacity in the EU. The unit export price of gold compounds fell dramatically over the period, consistent with higher volumes of lower-concentration materials being traded.

3.2 Other precious-metal compounds (284390) drove overall import value

The category covering compounds of precious metals other than silver and gold (284390) dominated import values throughout the period, rising from €635.0 million in 2015 to €811.0 million in 2025. On the export side, this category also remained the largest single component at €1.2 billion in 2025, though it had peaked at €1.9 billion in 2021. Unit import prices for this category were highly volatile, swinging from €4.4 million/t in 2015 to €0.9 million/t in 2020 and back to €6.5 million/t in 2025 — a pattern consistent with the varying precious-metal content of the materials classified under this heterogeneous heading.

Source: Product segment breakdown

3.3 EU production volumes fell sharply even as export values rose

EU production of CN 2843 products, measured in kilograms, declined from 8.88 million kg in 2015 to 3.50 million kg in 2025 (−60.6%), with a low point of 1.34 million kg in 2020. Over the same period, production value rose from €274.0 million to €1.04 billion (+279.6%). This divergence indicates a structural shift toward producing smaller quantities of far more valuable compounds — consistent with the surge in gold-compound exports and the move to higher unit prices. Germany remained the EU's dominant producer, accounting for 66.8% of production value in 2025 with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.52, followed by Italy (RSCA 0.19). Together, these two countries accounted for nearly 79% of EU production value (Specialisation).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in precious-metal compounds over 2015–2025 tells a story of resilience and strategic repositioning. Three interlinked dynamics define the period. First, the EU transformed itself from a near-balanced trader into a significant net exporter, with the trade surplus widening from €3.6 million to €394.2 million. Second, the collapse of Russian imports — falling from €390.5 million to near zero — forced and catalysed a broad diversification of sourcing toward the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan, and Switzerland, reducing value-based concentration but revealing new volume dependencies. Third, the product mix shifted decisively toward higher-value gold compounds, whose export volumes grew by more than 3,600%, even as overall production quantities declined by over 60%.

These trends point to a European industry that is increasingly specialised in high-value precious-metal processing, less reliant on any single import source for its raw material needs, and more export-oriented than at any point in the decade. However, the divergence between value-based and volume-based concentration indicators, combined with the historically high volatility observed in several partner relationships (Russia, Brazil, Norway, China), suggests that supply-chain vulnerability remains a concern that warrants continued monitoring.