Market evolution: Polystyrene (CN 390319) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in non-expansible polystyrene in primary forms (customs code 390319) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on annual data covering trade values, volumes, unit prices, partner-country flows, production volumes, concentration indices, and vulnerability indicators. Over the decade, the EU's polystyrene market underwent a fundamental transformation: the Union's traditional trade surplus contracted sharply as exports declined while imports rose, trade partnerships were reoriented away from established Western partners and Russia toward emerging economies in Asia and North Africa, and EU domestic production experienced a sustained contraction. These dynamics reflect the combined impact of evolving global competition, the post-2020 commodity price cycle, geopolitical disruptions—including sanctions on Russia—and structural shifts in European chemical manufacturing.

1. A Structural Erosion of the EU Trade Surplus

The most striking overarching trend is the dramatic narrowing of the EU's trade surplus in polystyrene. After a decade of contraction, the surplus fell by 80.7%, from €215 million in 2015 to just €42 million in 2025.

1.1 Exports declined in both volume and value

Over the period, EU exports fell substantially:

Export value peaked at €487 million and volume at 352,277 tonnes at some point during the decade, indicating that the 2025 figures represent a retreat well below prior highs. The decline in export prices, while less severe, compounds the volume effect and suggests that EU producers lost pricing power in international markets.

1.2 Imports grew steadily, reaching record levels

Over the same period, EU imports moved in the opposite direction:

Import value hit its decade maximum in 2025, as did quantity (approaching the peak of 199,188 tonnes seen earlier). The rise in import volume (+43.4%) outpaced the rise in value (+34.6%), reflecting the same price softening observed on the export side. Together, these trends indicate that the EU market is increasingly supplied from abroad.

1.3 The EU remains a net exporter—but barely

The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (−10.2% in 2015, −7.0% in 2025), meaning the Union consistently exported more than it imported. However, the indicator moved toward zero by 31.3%, reflecting a progressive convergence of imports and exports. At its minimum (−27.8%), the EU was far more self-sufficient in polystyrene; the 2025 level marks the narrowest margin recorded.

2. Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partnerships

Behind the aggregate numbers lies a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's trade geography, affecting both import sourcing and export destinations.

2.1 Import sources shifted toward developing economies

The composition of EU import partners changed markedly:

Pakistan's rise is especially dramatic: it became the second-largest import source by 2025, displacing countries that were far more significant a decade earlier. Iran also grew sharply from a low base, suggesting increased petrochemical export capacity in the Middle East and South Asia. Meanwhile, India's share collapsed, and the United Kingdom's imports into the EU fell by nearly 59%—a decline likely linked to post-Brexit trade restructuring and supply-chain realignment. Korea, while still the leading supplier, lost ground in relative terms.

2.2 Export destinations consolidated away from Türkiye, the UK, and Russia

On the export side, the changes were equally striking:

The collapse of exports to Russia—from €22.8 million to effectively zero—is a clear consequence of EU sanctions imposed following 2022, representing a complete market severance. Exports to Türkiye and the United Kingdom, the two largest destinations in 2015, were each roughly halved, contributing the largest absolute declines. In contrast, North African markets (Algeria and Morocco) and Malaysia absorbed increasing volumes, partially compensating for the loss. Malaysia's tenfold increase from a low base suggests growing demand in Southeast Asia for European-origin polystyrene.

2.3 Geographic concentration decreased on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) declined for both flows:

Both indices fell from levels indicating moderate concentration into a more diffuse range. The stronger decline on the export side (-36.5%) reflects the loss of dominant partners (Russia, Türkiye, UK) and the rise of smaller, more diversified destinations. For imports, the broadening of supply sources—from Korea and India toward Pakistan, Egypt, and Iran—similarly spread risk across more partners.

2.4 Several trade relationships exhibited high volatility

The coefficient of variation reveals that certain partnerships were highly unstable:

• United Kingdom imports into the EU showed the highest volatility (CV = 1.86), consistent with the large swings caused by Brexit-related trade reconfiguration.
• Singapore imports (CV = 1.63) and Egypt imports (CV = 0.82) also exhibited considerable year-to-year variation.
• On the export side, Malaysia (CV = 0.87) and South Africa (CV = 0.61) showed the most erratic patterns, consistent with these being newly developed or opportunistic markets.

Three notable price shocks were detected:

The Egyptian import price spike in 2022 and the Russian export price shock in 2023 align with the broader global commodity price turbulence following the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict and its aftermath.

3. Declining Domestic Production and Shifting Specialisation

The EU's internal production base for non-expansible polystyrene contracted in parallel with the trade deterioration, while the specialisation profile of Member States diverged.

3.1 EU production volumes fell significantly

According to PRODCOM data:

Production volume reached a trough of approximately 1.24 billion kg during the period, representing a decline of over 37% from the 2015 level at its lowest point. The 2025 figure shows some recovery from that trough but remains well below the starting level. The value decline (−17.6%) was less severe than the volume decline (−24.8%), meaning average production prices actually rose over the decade—a pattern consistent with the global petrochemical price cycle, particularly the 2021–2022 energy-price spike.

This contraction in domestic output helps explain both the decline in exports and the rise in imports: with less polystyrene produced domestically, the EU had less to ship abroad while demand continued to be met partly through foreign supply.

3.2 Specialisation is concentrated in a few Western European producers

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that export specialisation in polystyrene is highly concentrated among a handful of Member States:

Belgium and France together account for over half of EU production, and both exhibit strong comparative advantages (RCA well above 1). This concentration means that production or trade disruptions in these two countries would have outsized effects on the EU's overall polystyrene position.

At the other end of the spectrum, countries such as Latvia (RSCA = −1.00), Ireland (RSCA = −0.99), and Estonia (RSCA = −0.99) are virtually absent from polystyrene production, serving primarily as import markets.

3.3 Within the EU, trade roles are shifting

The data on importing and exporting Member States reveals internal redistribution:

Importing Member States:

The most notable shift is the surge in imports into Eastern and Southern European states—Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece all more than doubled their purchases from non-EU sources. Meanwhile, Belgium, despite being the EU's largest producer and exporter, saw its own imports drop by 46%, consistent with greater reliance on domestic output.

Exporting Member States:

Spain's export collapse (−84.1%) and France's steep decline (−42.0%) stand out, while Germany and Italy modestly increased their export values. This suggests a partial re-centralisation of EU polystyrene exports around the Benelux–Rhine corridor and Italy, at the expense of Iberian and some Central European producers.

3.4 Trade intensity rose despite production decline

The EU's trade intensity for polystyrene increased from 30.0% to 33.9%, while export propensity edged up from 21.5% to 23.0%. The salience analysis identifies export propensity (score: 34.1) as the more prominent dimension than trade intensity (score: 29.0). Rising trade intensity in the context of falling production indicates that the EU's polystyrene market became more exposed to international market conditions, even as its competitive position weakened.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's polystyrene (CN 390319) market underwent a profound structural shift. The trade surplus shrank by over 80%, driven by a simultaneous decline in exports (−29.3% in value) and a rise in imports (+34.6%). Domestic production fell by roughly a quarter, undermining the EU's capacity to serve external markets. Geographically, trade flows were reshaped by Brexit, EU sanctions on Russia, and the growing competitiveness of producers in South Asia and the Middle East—Pakistan and Iran emerged as major import sources, while Russia vanished entirely as an export destination. Within the EU, Belgium and France retained dominance in production and exports, but several Member States (Spain, Hungary) saw their export roles diminish sharply, and Eastern European countries became increasingly reliant on imports. Concentration indices declined on both sides, indicating a more diversified but also more vulnerable trade structure. Looking ahead, the key question is whether the EU can arrest the erosion of its polystyrene trade position or whether the structural decline in production will continue to draw in ever-larger import volumes.