Market evolution: Platinum scrap (CN 711292) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union in platinum waste and scrap (customs code 711292) from 2015 to 2025. This category covers material destined for the recovery of precious metals, a critical input for industries like automotive catalysts and electronics recycling. Over the decade, the EU’s trade position in this market underwent a fundamental transformation. The data reveals a shift from a modest net exporter to a major net importer, characterized by surging import volumes, volatile prices, and a growing dependency on a handful of key supplier nations.

1. A Decade of Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most striking trend in the 2015–2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU’s trade balance. The bloc moved from being a net exporter to a net importer of platinum scrap, a shift driven by a massive increase in inbound shipments.

• Import Surge vs. Export Erosion: Between the first and last periods, import quantities surged by 880.7% (from 3,428 to 33,620 tonnes), while export quantities fell by 31.6% (from 6,687 to 4,572 tonnes) (General Overview). This combination caused the EU’s trade balance to swing from a positive €148.5 million in 2015 to a deficit of -€1.3 billion in 2025.
• Divergent Price Trajectories: The value of trade tells a complementary story. Import values grew by 319.4% to €2.24 billion, while export values increased by only 36.3% to €929 million. Crucially, the average price per tonne for imports fell by 57.2% over the period, indicating that the value growth was driven almost entirely by volume. In contrast, export prices nearly doubled (+99.3%), suggesting the EU may have been exporting higher-grade or more refined scrap.
• Dwindling Self-Sufficiency: The EU’s net import reliance remained extremely high throughout the period, starting at 93.6% and slightly decreasing to 89.0%. This metric, combined with the collapsing export propensity (-32.1% over the period), underscores that the EU’s domestic recycling and collection infrastructure is far from meeting its industrial demand for platinum group metal recovery.

2. Concentrated Suppliers and a Shifting Geographic Landscape

The EU’s import dependence is serviced by a small group of suppliers, a relationship that both solidified and became more concentrated over the decade.

• Dominance of Anglo-American Suppliers: The United States and the United Kingdom consistently ranked as the top two suppliers by value. Together, they accounted for the majority of import value in 2025. Their combined import value grew by over 800% from 2015 to 2025 (Top Partners by Value). South Africa, a major primary producer, also became a top-3 supplier, with imports from it growing by 1,984%.
• Rising Import Concentration: This supplier consolidation is quantified by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, which more than doubled from 1,011 to 2,313, moving from a moderately concentrated market to a highly concentrated one (Concentration HHI). This indicates that the EU is sourcing its platinum scrap from an increasingly narrow set of partners, heightening supply chain risk.
• Export Market Dispersion: In contrast, the concentration of EU exports (HHI) decreased by 15.9%, meaning the bloc was selling to a slightly more diverse set of buyers, though still highly concentrated. The United States remained the largest single export destination, absorbing 34-50% of the EU’s outbound scrap value in a given year.

Table: Top 3 EU Trade Partners for Platinum Scrap (711292) by Value in 2025

3. Price Volatility and Punctuated Supply Shocks

The market for platinum scrap was characterized by significant volatility, with the 2020 period standing out for a major price shock affecting EU trade with its largest partners.

• High Price Volatility in Key Routes: The coefficient of variation (CV) for prices was high across several major trade corridors. For instance, import prices from the United Kingdom (CV=1.07) and the United States (CV=0.99) were highly unstable. On the export side, shipments to Norway (CV=1.62) and Japan (CV=1.12) were particularly volatile (Volatility Bars).
• The 2020 Price Shock: The analysis identified two major price shocks, both centered on 2020. EU imports from the United States saw an abnormal price spike (abnormality score: 13.8), with the average price shifting by +307.7% that year. Similarly, EU exports to the U.S. experienced a +109.5% price shift. A less severe but still significant shock (+169% shift) was observed in EU imports from the United Kingdom in 2018 (Top Shock Events).
• Interpreting the Shock: The timing and magnitude of the 2020 shocks coincide with the disruption caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns likely disrupted collection, refining, and logistics chains, creating sudden scarcity and price spikes for this critical material. That the shock was pronounced in flows with the U.S. points to a major vulnerability in a key supply chain.

Conclusion

Over the past decade, the EU has become deeply and increasingly reliant on imported platinum scrap to feed its recycling and refining industries. This dependency has manifested in three ways: a structural trade deficit, supplier concentration, and exposure to volatile price shocks from its primary partners. While export prices suggest the EU may still handle some higher-value segments, the sheer volume of imports indicates that the bloc’s circular economy for platinum group metals has a significant deficit. The major price shocks observed in 2020 underscore the fragility of these concentrated supply chains. For policymakers and industry, the data highlights the strategic importance of enhancing domestic collection and recycling capacities and diversifying sourcing to mitigate future supply and price risks.