Market evolution: Plaited hats and headgear (CN 6504) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in plaited hats and other headgear (Combined Nomenclature code 6504) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by robust growth in trade value, a fundamental shift in the EU's production profile, and a consequent increase in import dependency. While export values have more than doubled, the collapse of EU domestic production has left the bloc heavily reliant on imports, particularly from China, altering the market's structural dynamics and vulnerability profile. For full details on the product classification and data scope, refer to the product dashboard.

I. Sustained Growth in Trade Value Amidst Diverging Volume Trends

Over the decade, the EU's external trade in plaited headgear expanded significantly in value terms, with exports demonstrating particularly strong growth. However, the underlying volume trends diverged, pointing to substantial price increases and changing trade compositions.

Export value growth outpaced import expansion, yet a persistent trade deficit remains

The EU's exports of plaited headgear to non-EU countries surged by 147.0% in value, rising from €14.2 million in 2015 to €35.0 million in 2025. In contrast, import values grew by 36.6% over the same period, from €47.8 million to €65.2 million (General Overview). Despite the faster growth in exports, the EU consistently maintained a trade deficit, which narrowed from -€33.6 million in 2015 to -€30.2 million in 2025.

Price appreciation drove value growth more than volume increases

The expansion in trade value was largely driven by rising unit prices rather than proportional increases in physical volume. The average export price (EUR per tonne) increased by 71.2%, from €73,784 to €126,343. Import prices also rose, but more moderately, by 24.2% (from €14,482 to €17,984 per tonne). This is further reflected in the supplementary unit data: while the number of items exported grew by only 13.5%, their per-unit value (EUR per piece) nearly doubled, increasing by 117.6% to €18.43.

II. A Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships and Geographic Concentration

The geographic landscape of EU trade in plaited headgear underwent a notable shift, marked by the consolidation of China's role as the dominant supplier, a decline in UK trade flows, and the rapid emergence of other supply sources.

China solidified its position as the EU's primary import source

China was the EU's largest supplier of plaited headgear throughout the period, with its share of imports growing substantially. Imports from China increased by 44.0% in value, from €34.7 million to €49.9 million. This concentration is also reflected in import market structure: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value, a measure of supplier concentration, rose by 11.1% from 5,433 to 6,033, indicating a moderately concentrated market with a slight trend towards greater focus (Concentration & Specialisation).

Post-Brexit dynamics reshaped EU-UK trade flows

The United Kingdom's role as an import source for the EU diminished sharply after 2020. Imports from the UK fell by 70.4% in value, from €5.0 million in 2015 to €1.5 million in 2025. Conversely, the UK became a more important destination for EU exports, with shipments growing by 102.2% from €1.9 million to €3.9 million. This pivot is a clear effect of the UK's exit from the EU single market.

Export destinations diversified, with strong growth in high-income markets

EU exports found expanding markets in several high-income countries. The United States became the top export destination by 2025, with values growing by 205.5% to €6.5 million. Exports to Switzerland also surged, increasing by 339.3% to €6.9 million. Remarkably, exports to Norway grew from a low base by 1,233.7% to €4.2 million (Top Partners by Value). This growth occurred despite significant price volatility, such as the import price shock from China in 2018 (Volatility & Supply Shocks).

III. Structural Transformation: Collapse of EU Production and Rising Import Reliance

The most profound shift in the EU plaited headgear market was the near-total erosion of its domestic production base, leading to a dramatic increase in import reliance and fundamentally altering the bloc's trade vulnerability.

Domestic production collapsed across the EU

EU production of plaited headgear (Prodcom 14.19.42.50) experienced a precipitous decline over the decade. By 2025, the quantity of items produced had fallen by 80.8% to 1.61 million pieces, down from 8.38 million in 2015. The value of production similarly plummeted by 70.2%, from €73.0 million to €21.7 million (Production Volumes). This collapse suggests a withdrawal of EU manufacturers from the market, likely due to competitive pressures.

The EU's net import reliance and trade intensity surged

The consequence of falling production and growing import values was a sharp increase in the EU's dependence on foreign suppliers. The net import reliance metric, which measures the share of domestic consumption met by imports, skyrocketed from 6.1% in 2015 to 70.7% in 2025—a more than tenfold increase. Concurrently, trade intensity (the ratio of trade to production) rose from 20.6% to 111.0%, confirming the market's openness. The EU's export propensity (exports as a share of production) also soared, indicating that the remaining EU production became increasingly oriented towards export markets.

Specialisation is now geographically concentrated in a few EU members

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that production and export specialisation in this product are now concentrated in a small number of EU countries. Greece and Italy exhibit the highest specialisation, with RSCA scores of 0.576 and 0.377, respectively (Most Specialised Reporters). This suggests that the niche EU production that remains is clustered in these nations, while most other member states have become entirely dependent on imports.

Conclusion

The EU market for plaited hats and headgear has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. It evolved from a market with a modest domestic production base and trade deficit into one characterized by extremely high import reliance, where over 70% of domestic consumption is supplied from abroad. This shift was driven by the severe contraction of EU production, which in turn fueled the rapid growth of import values, predominantly from China. While the EU managed to expand its export sales significantly, particularly to the US and Switzerland, this growth is occurring from a dwindling production base, highlighting a structural vulnerability. The market is now more globally integrated and price-sensitive, with its geography reshaped by both long-term competitive trends and the recent shock of Brexit, which redirected UK trade flows.