Market evolution: Hats and headgear (CN 6505) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in hats and other headgear (Combined Nomenclature code 6505) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses knitted, crocheted, felt, and textile-fabric headgear as well as hairnets, but excludes animal headgear and toy or carnival items. Over the decade, the EU market for these products underwent significant structural transformation: import volumes nearly doubled, domestic production collapsed, and the bloc's net import reliance climbed steeply. At the same time, the EU's export performance strengthened considerably, with rising unit values and growing diversification of destination markets. This report organises its findings around three principal dynamics — the overall growth and rebalancing of trade flows, the shifting geography of suppliers and the decline of EU manufacturing capacity, and the increased market volatility that has accompanied the sector's growing dependence on Asian imports.
1. A Market That Grew on Both Sides — but Import Dependence Deepened
Imports expanded faster than exports, widening the trade deficit
Over the 2015–2025 period, both EU imports and exports of CN 6505 products grew substantially, but the two trajectories diverged in scale. Import values rose from €688.5 million to €1,127.1 million (+63.7%), while export values climbed from €216.8 million to €527.6 million (+143.4%). Despite the faster rate of export growth, the absolute gap remained large: the trade deficit widened from −€471.7 million in 2015 to −€599.5 million in 2025, a deterioration of 27.1%. At its widest point, the deficit reached −€782.2 million. The EU's net import reliance climbed from 54.6% to 77.9% (+42.7%), confirming that domestic production was increasingly unable to meet EU demand.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 688.5 | 1,127.1 | +63.7% |
| Export value (€M) | 216.8 | 527.6 | +143.4% |
| Trade balance (€M) | −471.7 | −599.5 | −27.1% |
| Net import reliance (%) | 54.6 | 77.9 | +42.7 pp |
Volume growth masked a structural price divergence
The expansion in trade values was driven by contrasting price dynamics on the import and export sides. EU imports grew strongly in volume — from 40,259 tonnes to 72,819 tonnes (+80.9%) — while unit import prices actually fell by 9.5%, from €17,100/t to €15,471/t. This suggests a shift toward higher-volume, lower-cost sourcing. By contrast, EU exports grew more modestly in volume (+27.9%, from 3,988t to 5,102t) but experienced a sharp increase in unit values (+90.1%, from €54,328/t to €103,251/t). This divergence points to a specialisation pattern in which the EU increasingly exported higher-value-added or branded headgear while importing basic, mass-market products.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import volume (t) | 40,259 | 72,819 | +80.9% |
| Import price (€/t) | 17,100 | 15,471 | −9.5% |
| Export volume (t) | 3,988 | 5,102 | +27.9% |
| Export price (€/t) | 54,328 | 103,251 | +90.1% |
EU exports became more geographically diversified
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell from 1,395 to 880 (−36.9%), indicating a meaningful reduction in destination concentration. While the United Kingdom remained the largest single export market (€79.1 million in 2025), its share eroded as shipments to Switzerland (€79.1 million, +231%), the United States (€79.0 million, +182%), and notably China (€42.9 million, +1,086%) surged. The growing export presence in China is particularly striking and may reflect EU luxury or fashion brands catering to rising demand from Chinese consumers.
2. The Asian Pivot: Diversifying Away from China Without Diversifying Away from Asia
China remained the dominant supplier but lost relative ground
China was by far the EU's largest source of CN 6505 imports throughout the period, accounting for €522.9 million in 2015 and €791.5 million in 2025 (+51.4%). However, its growth rate was significantly below the overall import growth rate (+63.7%), implying a modest loss of market share. The import HHI declined from 5,861 to 5,105 (−12.9%), and the volume-based HHI fell even more sharply (−34.2%), confirming that sourcing was becoming somewhat less concentrated on China.
| Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 522.9 | 791.5 | +51.4% |
| Bangladesh | 22.8 | 61.1 | +167.5% |
| Vietnam | 17.4 | 64.6 | +270.6% |
| United Kingdom | 49.5 | 20.0 | −59.6% |
| Türkiye | 6.3 | 15.2 | +139.7% |
| Cambodia | 3.4 | 22.7 | +565.8% |
| Taiwan | 10.6 | 7.8 | −26.4% |
Southeast and South Asian suppliers grew at extraordinary rates
The most dramatic shifts in the import landscape came from emerging Asian producers. Vietnam's exports to the EU grew by 270.6% to €64.6 million, Cambodia's by 565.8% to €22.7 million, and Bangladesh's by 167.5% to €61.1 million. These gains are consistent with broader trends in global textile and apparel supply chains, where manufacturers have been relocating production from China to lower-cost Asian economies in response to rising Chinese labour costs, US-China trade tensions, and — in the case of Bangladesh and Cambodia — preferential EU trade arrangements (e.g., Everything But Arms). Türkiye also expanded its presence (+139.7%), likely benefiting from proximity to the EU market and established textile expertise.
Brexit reshaped UK-EU headgear trade in both directions
The United Kingdom's role in CN 6505 trade underwent a sharp transformation. UK imports into the EU fell from €49.5 million to €20.0 million (−59.6%), with a particularly dramatic supply shock detected in 2023 (an 89.5% decline). This reflects the post-Brexit trade friction, the introduction of customs formalities, and the reorientation of supply chains. On the export side, however, the UK remained the EU's largest single destination (€79.1 million, +22.3%), suggesting continued strong consumer demand for EU-made headgear in the British market — likely driven by fashion and luxury brands.
3. Domestic Production Collapsed While the EU Brand Strengthened Abroad
EU manufacturing output declined dramatically
Data from the PRODCOM database paints a stark picture of the erosion of EU headgear manufacturing. Domestic production volume fell from 109.5 million pieces in 2015 to just 15.3 million pieces in 2025 — a collapse of 86.0%. Production value declined more moderately (−16.2%, from €202.7 million to €169.8 million), indicating that remaining EU producers shifted toward higher-value products even as output volumes contracted. The combination of falling production and rising imports is the primary driver of the EU's surging net import reliance (from 54.6% to 77.9%).
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production volume (million pcs) | 109.5 | 15.3 | −86.0% |
| Production value (€M) | 202.7 | 169.8 | −16.2% |
Specialisation concentrated in a handful of Western European countries
Despite the overall decline, certain EU member states retained a demonstrated comparative advantage in headgear production. Italy led with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score of 0.257 and an RCA of 1.69, followed by Belgium (RSCA 0.234, RCA 1.61) and Poland (RSCA 0.129, RCA 1.30). Italy and France also emerged as the EU's fastest-growing exporters by value, with increases of 265% and 249% respectively. These countries are home to major fashion and luxury houses (e.g., Italian milliners, French couture brands), and their export performance likely reflects the global appetite for premium European headgear rather than mass-market production.
| Reporter | RSCA | RCA | Export value 2025 (€M) | Export growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 0.257 | 1.69 | 166.0 | +265% |
| Belgium | 0.234 | 1.61 | 25.4 | +97% |
| Poland | 0.129 | 1.30 | 26.2 | +49% |
| Netherlands | 0.114 | 1.26 | 32.3 | +34% |
| France | — | — | 94.8 | +249% |
Export propensity surged, reflecting the sector's outward orientation
The EU's export propensity for CN 6505 increased from 52.1% to an extraordinary 325.4% (+524.6%), meaning that exports came to exceed domestic production by more than threefold. This is a striking indicator: it implies that EU-based producers increasingly serve foreign markets and/or that the EU functions as a re-export hub, importing semi-finished headgear and adding value (branding, finishing, distribution) before shipping abroad. The trade intensity also rose from 82.4% to 129.0%, confirming that the EU's headgear sector became substantially more integrated into global trade over the decade.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in CN 6505 products over 2015–2025 tells a story of deepening globalisation and structural transformation. Domestic production collapsed by 86% in volume terms, while import dependence surged to nearly 78%. China remained the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, but the EU actively diversified toward Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia — a pattern consistent with the broader reconfiguration of global textile supply chains. On the export side, the EU's performance was surprisingly strong: export values more than doubled, unit prices nearly doubled, and shipments to high-income markets (Switzerland, the United States) and even to China grew sharply. This suggests that the EU retained and expanded its position in the premium segment of the headgear market, even as mass-market production migrated offshore.
The main vulnerabilities identified are the sector's heavy reliance on Asian imports, the potential for supply-chain shocks (as evidenced by the 2022 Chinese price spike), and the structural trade deficit. However, the growing diversification of both import sources and export destinations, combined with the concentration of EU specialisation in high-value production in Italy, France, Belgium, and Poland, suggest a sector that has adapted to globalisation by moving up the value chain rather than attempting to compete on volume.