Market evolution: Perforated stainless steel sheet (CN 72199020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of EU imports and exports for perforated flat-rolled stainless steel (Customs Code 72199020) over the period 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by significant price increases, evolving trade partnerships, and a notable shift in the EU's net trade position. The following sections detail the key findings on trade value, market structure, and vulnerability.

1. Price-Driven Trade Growth Amidst Volume Fluctuations

Over the decade, the EU's trade in this product evolved significantly, with value changes decoupling from quantity trends, pointing to strong price pressures.

EU exports saw substantial value appreciation despite lower volumes

The value of EU exports grew from €8.5 million in 2015 to €12.0 million in 2025, a 41.7% increase. However, the exported quantity decreased by 15.3% over the same period. This divergence is explained by a 67.1% rise in export unit prices, which climbed from €5,562/tonne to €9,297/tonne, indicating that the value growth was entirely driven by higher prices rather than increased shipments (General Overview).

EU import values surged, led by major partners

Import values more than doubled, rising 151.4% to €1.04 million, with import quantities up 4.8%. Like exports, this was primarily a price phenomenon, with import prices rising 140.4% to €7,231/tonne. The main sources of imports shifted notably:

While China and the UK remained dominant, the value from Switzerland saw an extraordinary increase, albeit from a low base. Conversely, imports from India and Serbia collapsed (Top Partners by Value).

The EU maintained a positive trade balance, which peaked mid-period

The EU has been a consistent net exporter of this product throughout the period. The trade surplus peaked at €13.3 million in 2022 before settling to €11.0 million in 2025, still 36% above its 2015 level. This sustained surplus highlights the EU's competitive strength in this niche segment (General Overview).

2. Concentrated Production and Shifting Specializations Within the EU

The internal production and export landscape within the EU is highly concentrated, with key member states dominating but also exhibiting divergent growth paths.

Production value grew strongly while quantity declined, mirroring the trade trend

EU production value for this product increased by 57.3% from €4.8 billion to €7.6 billion, while production quantity fell by 6.9% to 3.1 billion kg. This confirms that the price increase observed in trade data reflects a broader, EU-wide market phenomenon for the underlying steel products (Production Volumes).

Germany and Italy dominate exports, but their trajectories differ

Export leadership is concentrated among a few EU members. Germany and Italy are the top exporters, but their performance has diverged:

• Germany solidified its position as the top exporter, with its export value growing by 169.3%.
• Italy, the second-largest exporter, saw a slight decline of 12.9% in export value over the period.
• Notably, Spain emerged as a fast-growing exporter (+214.8%), while Czechia's exports collapsed by 94.1% (Top Reporters by Value).

Export market concentration is moderate and slightly decreasing

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value remained relatively low, declining from 1445 to 1154 between 2015 and 2025. This indicates a moderately competitive export market that has become slightly less concentrated over time, consistent with the rise of new exporting EU members like Spain (Concentration HHI).

3. Rising Price Volatility and a Shift Towards Import Dependency

The period was marked by significant price shocks in key export markets and a fundamental change in the EU's net trade reliance, signaling increased market vulnerability.

Major export destinations experienced severe price shocks

The volatility analysis identifies several significant price shocks in EU exports, with high abnormality scores:

• Exports to the United States in 2019 saw a price increase of 78.3%.
• Exports to Australia in 2022 experienced a 70.5% price jump.
• Exports to the United Kingdom in 2022 also recorded a 60.4% price increase.

These shocks, particularly the 2022 events in the UK and Australia, likely reflect the global supply chain disruptions and energy cost inflation following the post-pandemic recovery and geopolitical tensions (Top Shock Events).

The EU shifted from a net exporter to a near net-import reliant position

The most striking vulnerability indicator is the net import reliance percentage. It moved from -14.7% in 2015 (indicating net export status) to +1.2% in 2025 (indicating near net import reliance). This shift, a change of 107.9%, means the EU is now roughly in balance, having lost its significant net export margin. Concurrently, the trade intensity (total trade relative to production) and export propensity (exports relative to production) both declined, suggesting the EU market is becoming slightly more insulated but from a weaker export position (Net Import Reliance).

Import sourcing is moderately concentrated

The import HHI by value remained elevated, ending at 3895 in 2025. While this is lower than its 2018 peak of 8727, it still indicates a concentrated import market. This concentration, combined with the newfound net import reliance, highlights a potential vulnerability in supply chain diversification for this niche product (Concentration HHI).

Conclusion

From 2015 to 2025, the EU's trade in perforated stainless steel sheet was defined by price inflation over volume growth, a sustained but eroding trade surplus, and a structural shift towards import parity. The market demonstrated resilience through high-value exports led by Germany and Italy but faced shocks and saw its competitive net export position diminish significantly. The concurrent rise in import reliance and persistent concentration in import sources points to increased strategic vulnerability for the EU in this specific industrial segment, warranting attention to supply chain security and diversification.