Market evolution: Parboiled semi-milled rice (CN 10063029) — 2015–2025
Introduction
CN 10063029 is a residual subcategory within the EU's Combined Nomenclature for rice. It covers parboiled semi-milled rice that cannot be classified as round, medium, or long grain — the categories that absorb the vast majority of parboiled rice trade. Because most parboiled rice falls under the more specific grain-type codes, this residual code captures only small volumes. Available trade data for this product spans 2023 to 2025; no records were returned for earlier years within the 2015–2025 window. This report examines the market's structural features, the shifting geography of supply, and the EU's growing external exposure in this niche segment.
A Persistent but Narrowing Trade Deficit at Low Absolute Volumes
EU imports and exports are small in absolute terms
Over the 2023–2025 period, extra-EU imports of CN 10063029 ranged between roughly 346 and 353 tonnes per year, valued between €313,186 and €378,549. Exports were considerably smaller — between 35 and 101 tonnes valued at €48,319 to €227,393. These modest figures confirm the residual nature of this tariff line; the bulk of parboiled rice is traded under more specific codes for long-grain or medium-grain varieties.
Export growth outpaced import growth, narrowing the deficit
The EU's trade deficit in value terms moved from −€264,866 to −€235,190, an improvement of 11.2%. This was driven by a 142.0% surge in export values (from €48,319 to €116,935), which far exceeded the 12.4% rise in import values (from €313,186 to €352,125). On the volume side, exports grew by 55.3% (from 34.6 to 53.8 tonnes) while import quantities were nearly flat at +1.5% (from 347.9 to 353.1 tonnes). Import prices rose by 10.8% (from €900.1/t to €997.1/t), and export prices climbed even faster, by 55.8% (from €1,395.0/t to €2,173.9/t), suggesting that EU exporters are increasingly serving higher-value or more distant markets.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€) | 313,186 | 352,125 | +12.4% |
| Import quantity (t) | 347.9 | 353.1 | +1.5% |
| Import price (€/t) | 900.1 | 997.1 | +10.8% |
| Export value (€) | 48,319 | 116,935 | +142.0% |
| Export quantity (t) | 34.6 | 53.8 | +55.3% |
| Export price (€/t) | 1,395.0 | 2,173.9 | +55.8% |
| Trade balance (€) | −264,866 | −235,190 | +11.2% |
Net import reliance has risen sharply despite the narrowing deficit
Despite the improving trade balance in value terms, the EU's net import reliance shifted from −2.4% to 18.6%. The initial negative value indicates that the EU was at near-parity between domestic production and trade in the first period. The subsequent rise to nearly 19% reflects declining domestic production volumes combined with stable-to-rising import demand, a pattern explored further in the third section below.
Pakistan's Consolidation and Diverging Supplier Concentration
Pakistan emerged as the dominant extra-EU supplier
Among partner countries, Pakistan experienced the most dramatic growth, rising from €79,761 to €219,188 (+174.8%) and accounting for the largest share of EU imports by the final period. India, the second-largest supplier, grew more modestly from €56,466 to €77,360 (+37.0%). Paraguay (€148,943), Australia (€37,777), Türkiye (€19,397), and Cambodia (€9,702) each appeared as a supplier in a single year only. Notably, Thailand's presence collapsed from €22,172 to just €2 (−100.0%), suggesting a complete withdrawal from this particular segment.
| Partner | First value (€) | Last value (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 79,761 | 219,188 | +174.8% |
| India | 56,466 | 77,360 | +37.0% |
| Paraguay | 148,943 | 148,943 | — |
| Australia | 37,777 | 37,777 | — |
| Thailand | 22,172 | 2 | −100.0% |
| Türkiye | 19,397 | 19,397 | — |
| Cambodia | 9,702 | 9,702 | — |
Import concentration by value has increased, while volume-based concentration is stable
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for imports by value rose from 3,290 to 4,482 (+36.2%), crossing from a moderately concentrated market into a highly concentrated one. By contrast, the volume-based HHI remained broadly stable (from 4,352 to 4,256, −2.2%). This divergence suggests that the increased value concentration is partly driven by price differentials — Pakistan's growing share in value terms may reflect higher unit prices rather than a proportional increase in physical volume.
EU exports have become more diversified
On the export side, the value-based HHI fell from 3,326 to 1,814 (−45.5%), and the volume-based HHI fell from 4,528 to 2,311 (−49.0%). EU exporters have meaningfully broadened their destination markets. Key partners include Mali (€96,225 in a single year), the United Kingdom (growing from €2,872 to €12,859, +347.8%), Serbia (€37,469), Colombia (€26,462), and Norway (from €5,987 to €7,572, +26.5%). Among recurring export destinations, Norway stands out for its low volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.23), while Switzerland (CV 1.70) and the United Kingdom (CV 0.99) show considerably more erratic trade flows.
Declining Production, Uneven Specialisation, and Growing Trade Exposure
EU rice production volumes have fallen while unit values have surged
Domestic production for the broader ProdCom category (10.61.12.30, covering semi-milled and wholly milled rice) declined by 20.1% in volume, from 2,629,894,231 kg to 2,100,000,000 kg, with a trough of 2,046,339,421 kg. Over the same span, production values rose by 58.7%, from €1,890,186,673 to €3,000,000,000 (peaking at €3,200,000,000). This divergence — falling output, rising value — implies a substantial increase in unit production values, likely driven by energy cost inflation, input price pressures, and possibly a compositional shift toward higher-value rice processing.
| Production metric | First period | Last period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantity (kg) | 2,629,894,231 | 2,100,000,000 | −20.1% |
| Value (€) | 1,890,186,673 | 3,000,000,000 | +58.7% |
Member-state specialisation is highly uneven across the EU
The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals wide disparities among EU member states. Latvia and Czechia display the strongest revealed comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.958 and 0.550 respectively), though both account for very small shares of total EU trade. The Netherlands occupies a more significant position, with moderate specialisation (RSCA 0.453) and the largest share of EU production in this product category at 38.5%. Among the largest member states, Germany (RSCA −0.814), Poland (−0.608), and Spain (−0.368) show negative specialisation, consistent with their roles as net importers.
| Member state | RSCA | RCA | Production share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 0.958 | 46.3 | 0.2% |
| Czechia | 0.550 | 3.4 | 16.5% |
| Netherlands | 0.453 | 2.7 | 38.5% |
| Belgium | 0.087 | 1.2 | 10.1% |
| France | 0.069 | 1.1 | 9.0% |
| Spain | −0.368 | 0.5 | 2.7% |
| Poland | −0.608 | 0.2 | 1.6% |
| Germany | −0.814 | 0.1 | 2.2% |
Trade intensity has more than doubled, signalling growing external dependence
The EU's trade intensity — the ratio of extra-EU trade to domestic production plus imports — rose from 14.6% to 35.0% (+140.4%), making it the dominant vulnerability metric by salience (score: 155.4). The export propensity also increased, from 8.9% to 12.2% (+37.3%; salience score: 75.1). Together, these indicators show that the EU's engagement with extra-EU markets in this product segment has deepened considerably — both on the import and export sides — raising the stakes of any future supply disruption.
Conclusion
CN 10063029 remains a niche, low-volume tariff line within the EU's parboiled rice trade, but several structural shifts are noteworthy. The EU runs a persistent trade deficit, which narrowed slightly in value terms as export prices rose steeply (+55.8%). Beneath this surface improvement, however, the EU's net import reliance climbed from −2.4% to 18.6%, driven by a 20% decline in domestic production volumes and a 58.7% increase in production values — pointing to rising unit costs and tighter domestic supply. On the import side, Pakistan has consolidated its position as the dominant supplier (€219,188, +174.8%), contributing to a significant increase in supply-side concentration (HHI from 3,290 to 4,482). On the export side, diversification has improved markedly (HHI from 3,326 to 1,814). The most striking dynamic is the doubling of trade intensity to 35.0%, which signals that this segment of the rice market is becoming substantially more exposed to extra-EU flows. Policymakers and market participants should monitor the combination of rising import concentration and deepening external dependence, particularly given the vulnerability of key suppliers to climate and geopolitical shocks.