Market evolution: Paper bags (CN 481940) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 481940 — sacks and bags of paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding or webs of cellulose fibres (excluding those with a base width ≥ 40 cm) — in the European Union's extra-EU trade over the period 2015–2025. Full product definition

Over this decade, the EU's paper bag market experienced a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from a slight net-exporter position to a net-importer, while both import and export volumes and values rose substantially. Several structural drivers — including the global shift away from single-use plastics, post-Brexit trade reconfiguration, and geopolitical upheaval following Russia's invasion of Ukraine — reshaped trade flows and supplier relationships. The sections below unpack these dynamics.

1. The EU's structural shift from net exporter to net importer of paper bags

Import growth far outpaced export growth, reversing the EU's trade balance

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of paper bags nearly doubled in volume (+93.3%, from 115,266 to 222,795 tonnes) and grew by 80.8% in value (from €371M to €672M). Over the same period, exports rose more modestly: +11.5% in volume (131,099 to 146,203 tonnes) and +50.0% in value (from €344M to €516M). The trade balance consequently deteriorated from a deficit of €27M in 2015 to a deficit of €155M by 2025 — a shift of −473.5%.

(Source: Trade overview)

Import prices fell while export prices rose, reflecting divergent cost dynamics

A notable feature is the divergence in unit prices. Export prices rose by 34.5% (from €2,627/t to €3,532/t), while import prices actually fell by 6.5% (from €3,222/t to €3,014/t). This suggests that EU producers faced rising input costs — likely linked to energy prices and stricter environmental regulations — while foreign suppliers managed to keep or lower their prices, reinforcing the competitiveness of imports.

Domestic production grew strongly, yet demand growth exceeded it

EU production of paper bags (production volumes) rose by 64.1% in quantity (from 643 million kg to 1,056 million kg) and by 79.3% in value (from €1.43B to €2.56B). Despite this strong domestic expansion, the net import reliance shifted from −6.7% in 2015 to +5.3% in 2025 — confirming that the EU's appetite for paper bags, driven by sustainability-related substitution away from plastics, outstripped what local industry could supply.

2. Southern and Eastern European suppliers emerged as major competitors to China

China remains the dominant supplier, but its market share faces growing competition

China was by far the largest extra-EU supplier throughout the period, with imports rising from €218M to €375M (+72.4%). In 2025, China accounted for roughly 56% of all extra-EU paper bag imports by value. However, the import concentration index (HHI) declined from 3,684 to 3,459, indicating a gradual diversification of the EU's import base.

(Source: Top partners by value)

Türkiye, Serbia, and Tunisia experienced the fastest import growth

The most dramatic shifts came from countries in the EU's near neighbourhood. Türkiye's exports to the EU surged by 332.8% (from €21M to €93M), making it the second-largest extra-EU supplier. Serbia's exports grew even faster (+493.2%, from €8M to €48M), reflecting Serbia's deepening trade integration with the EU. Tunisia (+513.5%) also emerged rapidly, likely benefiting from EU–Tunisia trade preferences and geographic proximity.

The EU's import base is moderately concentrated but becoming more diversified

The import HHI of 3,459 in 2025 indicates moderate concentration, with China still representing a dominant share. By contrast, exports are far more diversified (HHI of 1,161), spread across multiple destination markets. The declining HHI on both the import and export sides points to a broadening of trade relationships over the decade.

3. Geopolitical events and market shocks reshaped trade corridors

Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a collapse in EU exports to Russia

The most visible geopolitical disruption was the near-total collapse of EU exports to Russia: from €28M in 2015 to just €6M by 2025 (−79.7%). This decline accelerated sharply after 2022, consistent with EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The export volatility coefficient for Russia (0.60) was among the highest of any destination, reflecting this disruption.

The UK became the EU's single largest export market, reflecting post-Brexit trade reorientation

The United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's top export destination, growing from €93M to €121M (+31.2%). UK imports from the EU also remained stable at around €39M. This two-way flow reflects the deep supply-chain integration between the EU and UK in packaging products, which has persisted — and in some ways strengthened — after Brexit, as UK businesses source paper bags from continental suppliers rather than building independent capacity.

Price shocks in 2021–2022 affected key import corridors

The supply shock analysis reveals significant price shocks during the 2021–2022 period:

The China price shock in 2021, affecting 61.8% of import value, was likely linked to surging global container shipping costs and energy prices during the post-pandemic supply-chain crisis. The Türkiye shock in 2022 coincided with the energy price spike triggered by the war in Ukraine. Despite these shocks, import prices subsequently moderated, and the 2025 import price of €3,014/t was actually below the 2015 level.

The US market emerged as a high-growth export destination

EU exports to the United States grew by 211.5% (from €28M to €88M), making the US the third-largest extra-EU export market by 2025. Israel (+225.5%) also showed exceptionally strong growth. These trends suggest EU paper bag manufacturers successfully penetrated transatlantic markets, possibly capitalising on quality differentiation and sustainability positioning.

(Source: Top partners by value)

EU Member States' roles evolved, with Southern and Central Europe gaining ground

Among EU Member States, Germany remained the largest exporter to non-EU countries (€128M in 2025) and the largest importer (€92M). However, the fastest growth in exports came from Spain (+306%, from €10M to €40M) and Italy (+65%, from €71M to €117M). On the import side, France saw the steepest increase (+98%, from €60M to €119M), followed by the Netherlands (+184%) and Belgium (+151%). Top EU reporters

The specialisation analysis shows that Croatia (RSCA: 0.81), Portugal (0.53), and Poland (0.35) are the most specialised EU producers in this product category, while large economies like the Netherlands (RSCA: −0.40) and Sweden (−0.63) are net importers in relative terms.

Conclusion

The EU paper bag market (CN 481940) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. What was once a balanced trade position became a structural import deficit, driven by surging demand outpacing domestic production growth. China consolidated its position as the dominant supplier, but the most striking development was the rapid rise of near-neighbour suppliers — Türkiye, Serbia, and Tunisia — which collectively grew their exports to the EU by over 300–500%, diversifying the EU's import base.

On the export side, the EU's trade geography was redrawn by geopolitics: Russia nearly vanished as a destination, while the US and Israel emerged as high-growth markets. The UK remained the anchor export partner, underscoring the durability of cross-Channel packaging supply chains despite Brexit.

Looking ahead, the EU's growing trade intensity (from 18.8% to 36.7% of production) and rising net import reliance (now at +5.3%) point to increasing exposure to global supply conditions. While import price shocks in 2021–2022 proved temporary, the EU's deepening dependence on Chinese and near-neighbour suppliers warrants continued monitoring, particularly as sustainability regulations may further accelerate demand for paper-based packaging alternatives.