Market evolution: Large paper sacks (CN 481930) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in product CN 481930 — large paper sacks and bags (base width ≥ 40 cm) made of paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding, or webs of cellulose fibres — over the period 2015–2025. The product serves a wide range of industries including agriculture, construction, chemicals, and food packaging.

Over the decade, the EU maintained its position as a net exporter of large paper sacks, but the landscape shifted considerably. Export values grew from EUR 105.1 million to EUR 135.4 million (+28.8%), while import values more than doubled from EUR 34.4 million to EUR 70.5 million (+105.0%). This divergence narrowed the trade surplus from EUR 70.7 million to EUR 64.9 million. Meanwhile, EU domestic production increased from 925,732 tonnes to an estimated 1,020,000 tonnes in volume (+10.2%) and from EUR 1.24 billion to EUR 1.52 billion in value (+22.5%), pointing to a broader trend of rising unit prices across the sector.

The following three sections explore the main dynamics that shaped this market: the erosion of the EU's trade surplus, a dramatic geographic reshuffling of trade partners, and the dominance of price-driven growth over volume expansion.

1. The eroding trade surplus: imports grew twice as fast as exports

Import growth far outpaced export growth throughout the period

The most striking aggregate trend is the asymmetry between import and export dynamics. Between 2015 and 2025, EU import values surged by 105.0%, while export values grew by only 28.8%. In volume terms, imports rose 33.5% (from 23,148 t to 30,902 t) while exports actually declined by 5.8% (from 62,129 t to 58,506 t). At its narrowest, the trade surplus fell to just EUR 44.0 million — roughly 38% below its 2015 starting point.

The EU's net-exporter status remained intact but trade intensity nearly doubled

Despite the narrowing surplus, the EU never approached import dependence. The net import reliance remained firmly negative (i.e., net-exporting) throughout, ranging from −2.2% to −7.3%. However, trade intensity — the ratio of total trade to domestic production — nearly doubled from 6.8% to 12.4%, and export propensity rose from 4.8% to 8.3%. This indicates that the large paper sack market became progressively more open and internationally integrated over the decade.

Several EU member states saw extraordinary import surges

The aggregate import growth was not evenly distributed across EU members. Some countries experienced explosive increases in their inbound trade:

Greece stands out dramatically: from a negligible importer in 2015, it became the EU's largest single importer of large paper sacks by 2025, with EUR 16.9 million in value. This could reflect growing domestic demand linked to agricultural packaging (Greece is a significant exporter of agricultural products requiring bulk paper sacks) or a reorganisation of supply chains within the EU.

2. A dramatic geographic reshuffling of trade partners

Serbia emerged as the EU's dominant import source

The most dramatic single-country story in the dataset concerns imports from Serbia. Serbian imports into the EU grew from EUR 5.1 million to EUR 25.4 million — a staggering +400.2% increase — making Serbia the single largest non-EU supplier of large paper sacks to the EU by 2025, overtaking the long-established Chinese and UK suppliers. Several Western Balkan countries also saw notable increases, including Bosnia and Herzegovina (+159.5%) and Türkiye (+284.3%), suggesting a broader regional trend of Western Balkan and near-shore suppliers filling EU demand.

The Russia–Ukraine conflict reshaped export flows

On the export side, the most consequential shift was the near-collapse of EU exports to Russia. From EUR 8.0 million in 2015, exports to the Russian Federation fell to just EUR 0.9 million by 2025 (−88.7%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for Russian export flows (0.75) confirms the erratic nature of this collapse.

In parallel, exports to Ukraine surged from negligible levels (EUR 52,792) to EUR 3.7 million, likely reflecting humanitarian and reconstruction-related demand as well as Ukraine's deepening trade integration with the EU. A price shock in EU exports to Ukraine was detected in 2022 (abnormality score: 61.0, price shift: +64.1%), consistent with wartime supply disruptions and elevated demand.

New export destinations gained prominence as old ones faded

While the United Kingdom remained the EU's top export destination (EUR 27.6 million in 2025, +27.7%), several other markets grew much faster:

The surge in exports to India (+958%) and Israel (+185%) suggests EU producers successfully diversified into new markets, partially compensating for the loss of the Russian market. On the import side, Ukraine's emergence as a supplier (+6,878%) is notable, though its high volatility (CV: 0.65) signals that these flows remain fragile and sensitive to geopolitical conditions.

Trade concentration remained moderate but shifted in character

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value declined slightly from 2,511 to 2,434 (−3.1%), indicating a marginal diversification of import sources. Export concentration, by contrast, edged up from 815 to 915 (+12.2%), with volume concentration rising more sharply (from 611 to 898, +46.9%), suggesting that EU export flows became somewhat more concentrated in fewer destination markets — even as the identity of those markets changed.

3. Price inflation, not volume expansion, drove trade growth

Unit prices rose steeply across both imports and exports

A critical insight from the data is that the growth in trade values was overwhelmingly driven by price increases rather than by rising physical volumes:

Export prices rose 36.8% and import prices rose 53.6% over the decade. These increases are consistent with the broader inflationary environment of 2021–2023, which saw elevated energy costs, pulp and paper input prices, and logistics costs globally. The fact that import prices rose even faster than export prices suggests that EU-based producers may have had somewhat better cost control or pricing power than their foreign competitors.

EU production volumes grew modestly while values surged

EU domestic production of large paper sacks increased from 925,732 tonnes to an estimated 1,020,000 tonnes (+10.2%), while production value rose from EUR 1.24 billion to EUR 1.52 billion (+22.5%). This implies an increase in the domestic production unit price of approximately 11% — smaller than the 36.8% rise in export prices, possibly reflecting the different product mix between domestic consumption and export-destined production.

The EU's competitive advantages are concentrated in Italy, Portugal, and Poland

The 2025 specialisation data reveals which EU member states hold a comparative advantage in large paper sack production:

Italy dominates, accounting for over one-third of EU production and holding the highest Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA of 4.45). Notably, Spanish exports surged from EUR 20.8 million to EUR 30.4 million (+46.1%), making Spain the EU's largest exporter by value in 2025, overtaking Italy — whose exports declined from EUR 30.9 million to EUR 24.2 million (−21.7%). Meanwhile, Portugal experienced the most dramatic export growth among EU members (+545%), and France more than doubled its exports (+118%). These shifts suggest a gradual geographic rebalancing of EU export capacity from its traditional Italian core toward the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Europe.

Conclusion

The EU market for large paper sacks (CN 481930) evolved significantly between 2015 and 2025, driven by three interrelated dynamics. First, import growth (+105% in value) far outpaced export growth (+28.8%), eroding the EU's trade surplus from EUR 70.7 million to EUR 64.9 million — though the EU remained a consistent net exporter throughout. Second, the geographic landscape was dramatically reshuffled: Serbia became the EU's top non-EU supplier (+400%), Russia was essentially lost as an export market (−89%) due to sanctions, and new trade corridors emerged with Ukraine, Israel, India, and Türkiye. Third, the bulk of trade value growth was driven by rising unit prices — up 37% for exports and 54% for imports — rather than by volume increases, reflecting the global inflationary pressures of the early 2020s.

EU domestic production remained robust at over one million tonnes, and the bloc's competitive position, anchored by Italy, Spain, Poland, and Portugal, stayed strong. However, the intensifying trade intensity (from 6.8% to 12.4%) signals that this market is becoming more exposed to international competition and supply-chain risks. The concentration of import volatility in a small number of partner countries — particularly Serbia, Ukraine, and the UK — warrants attention from policymakers concerned with supply security in the packaging sector.